LeverageAHRMNeutral

I keep the neutral view pending close confirmation: the intraday price cleared the 73,627-rial resistance and today's closing estimate sits above it too, but volume is below average and individuals are net selling, and the gap to NAV looks more like calculation lag than real demand. If today's close settles above 73,627 rials, the view turns bullish; a close back below 69,648 rials keeps it bearish. Because AHRM is leveraged both ways, the risk here is asymmetric and larger than an ordinary stock.

• Today's last price (Mehr 15, 11:05) is 75,736 rials, up 4% from yesterday's close of 72,824 rials and above the prior card's resistance (73,627 rials); today's estimated closing price is also 75,531 rials and above that level, but it is not final until the session ends.
• AHRM's anchor is the whole stock market, not one sector: Tehran's TEDPIX today (Mehr 15, as of 11:04) reached 8,113,523 points, up about 136,352 points (roughly 1.7%) from yesterday's close; AHRM reflects this move at roughly double the leverage.
• The fund's NAV at yesterday's close (14 Mehr) was 91,009 rials; the board price now trades about 17% below it. Since NAV updates only once a day while the market has rallied today, this gap looks more like NAV lag than a real premium or discount.
• Individuals net sold about 24,717,535 units today, and volume (198,469,574 units) is only about 85% of the monthly average; institutions bought almost the same amount net, which could reflect market-making rather than confirmed real demand.
• Sahmino's own risk-free rate (Iran's T-bill yield) stood at 42.62% on 14 Mehr, close to its 30-day average of 41.79%; since AHRM's ordinary-unit predicted yield tracks these same rates, a high rate keeps this leveraged fund's financing cost elevated.