چکاوهKSKANeutral

I am moving the view from bullish to neutral: the buy queue has not yet broken the 15,230 rial level, but the buyer strength ratio (0.38) fails the real money confirmation test, and the newly disclosed Article 141 trigger with negative equity clearly raises reversal risk. I put roughly a 35% probability on the close holding above 15,230 rials over the short term horizon, not because the fundamentals are strong, but because the queue has not yet opened.

• Chekaveh has locked its buy queue at the daily band ceiling for a fourth straight session and today it is up 2.97% at 16,630 rials, a fresh 52 week high for the stock.
• The buy queue holds 481 orders for 42.3 million shares against zero sell orders, but the buyer to seller strength ratio is only 0.38; the three part confirmation test (strength above 1, volume at least 2x the 30 day average, positive net retail volume) is not met.
• The price is now 27.6% above the 20 day average (13,029 rials) and 55.9% above the 50 day average (10,668 rials); 20 day realised volatility is 1.40% a day, so today's move alone is roughly double the stock's normal daily swing.
• Chekaveh's shareholders equity is negative 1,996.5 billion rials and accumulated losses equal 385.5% of registered capital; it is now subject to Article 141, and the Zmijewski model puts bankruptcy probability at 99.1%. EPS is negative 2,017 rials, P/E negative 8.2.
• The free market dollar has risen 20.5% in a month, from 2,230,000 rials to 2,687,000 rials, raising the cost of Chekaveh's mostly imported pulp and recovered paper inputs; trailing 12 month gross margin is still negative 0.99%.