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Sahmino callsStocks

BarakatBRKTNeutral

Barakat crossed the 4,930 rial resistance with an upward gap and reached a high of 5,000 rial; the close has not yet confirmed

Horizon: Short-term (3 to 5 trading sessions, until around 18 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

5,000 rials

That dayup2.9%

Support

4,930 rials

Resistance

5,130 rials

Invalidation

4,400 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup2.4%

Conclusion

I am changing the view from bearish to neutral: the 4,930 resistance was broken intraday with an upward gap, but the close has not confirmed and the flow-confirmation triangle (buyer strength, double volume) is not complete. The 4,400 invalidation level is still far away. The P/E far above the sector and the cost-generating nature of the dollar for this group keep the risk in place. I give about 50 percent probability that next week's close will stabilize above 4,930; otherwise a return to the previous band is likely.

The evidence

  • Barakat today (13 Mehr 1405) opened with an upward gap at 4,980 rial, crossed the published resistance of 4,930 rial, and rose to a high of 5,000 rial; 4,980 rial is now equivalent to 2.47 percent above yesterday's close (4,860 rial).
  • This crossing is intraday and the close has not yet confirmed it; according to the previous card, a sustained return above 4,930 shifts the view from bearish to neutral or bullish.
  • Net real volume today is positive 23.5 million shares, but buyer strength is still 0.77 (below one) and trading volume (135.4 million shares) still hasn't reached 2 times the monthly average (158.6 million shares); the confirmation triangle is not complete.
  • The ticker's P/E on a twelve-month EPS basis is 106, against the pharmaceutical group's average P/E of 14.7; this large gap keeps valuation risk in place even if the high growth continues.
  • Unlike export-oriented firms, the dollar is a cost burden for Barakat rather than a boost to profit; the free market dollar jumped about 14 percent in one week (2,350,000 to 2,683,000 rial, 5 to 12 Mehr) while drug sale prices are set by directive.

If it holds

If the close stabilizes above 4,930 rial, the bearish view is set aside and the path toward 5,130 rial remains open.

If it breaks

If the close goes below 4,400 rial, the bearish view is reactivated.

What to watch

Today's official close relative to 4,930 rial, completion of the flow-confirmation triangle with volume above 158.6 million shares, and the trend of the free market dollar.

Every call on this symbol

17 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 5 October 11:07NeutralBarakat crossed the 4,930 rial resistance with an upward gap and reached a high of 5,000 rial; the close has not yet confirmed5,000 rialsup2.4%
  2. 4 October 13:38BearishBarakat closed below the 4,930 rial support for the first time; outlook changes from neutral to bearish4,850 rialsup3.1%
  3. 29 September 13:38NeutralBarakat jumped to 5,310 rial but returned to the previous resistance on retail selling5,090 rialsdown4.7%
  4. 26 September 10:57NeutralBarakat moved past our 4,840-rial line; we're taking back the bearish call right now and not waiting for the closing bell4,930 rialsup3.2%
  5. 22 September 11:32BearishOur 4,700-rial resistance broke with the last trade but not with the closing price; today is a test of this call, not its invalidation4,710 rialsup4.7%
  6. 21 September 11:31Bearish75 billion rial cash against 43,502 billion rial current liabilities, and the market gives this combination a 97x multiple4,560 rialsup3.3%
  7. 20 September 11:47BearishBarakat's current liabilities are more than double its current assets, and this liquidity lock is the story of this case4,700 rialsdown3.0%
  8. 16 September 10:13BearishYesterday's bearish call worked: Barakat is at the bottom of the range, with 4.4 million shares offered against 10,000 in demand4,920 rialsdown4.5%
  9. 15 September 10:18BearishP/E ratio of 108 against a group average of 13, and a current ratio of 0.46: these two figures together changed the vote5,100 rialsdown3.5%
  10. 13 September 08:49NeutralNot confirmed: the buy queue sat at the ceiling of the range, but buyer strength was 0.59 and volume stayed below the monthly average5,280 rialsdown3.4%
  11. 8 September 12:13NeutralOne of our three flaws was resolved and the biggest one got worse: the Barakat multiple is now 8.6 times the group, 109.36 against 12.785,160 rialsup2.3%
  12. 7 September 10:12NeutralThe dollar rose 20 percent in one month, and for Barakat this is a cost line, not a revenue line5,010 rialsup3.0%