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Sahmino callsStocks

پارسانPASNBullish

Parsan (PASN) Closes Above 36,760-Rial Resistance at a One-Year High of 37,230 Rials

Horizon: Short term (1 to 2 weeks, to about 29 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

37,240 rials

That dayup0.0%

Support

36,760 rials

Resistance

37,870 rials

Invalidation

34,940 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup3.0%

Conclusion

The view turns bullish: today's close cleared the 36,760-rial resistance for the first time and reached a one-year high of 37,230 rials; but since this came alongside a 1.14% drop in global urea and a softer Brent, I read it as more of a domestic (rial weakness) driver than a global one. I put about 40% odds on a continued rise to the 37,870-rial resistance by about 29 Mehr; a sustained close below 34,940 rials would invalidate the view.

The evidence

  • Parsan's close rose to 37,230 rials in the 14 Mehr (October 6) session, clearing the last card's 36,760-rial resistance for the first time; that is the stock's highest close in a year.
  • The 14 Mehr session's volume of about 47.3 million shares was only 1.17 times the 40.4 million-share monthly average, and individual net buying was only about 2.9 million shares; the 2 times-average condition for a confirmed flow signal is not met.
  • The global urea price reached 435 dollars a ton on 14 Mehr (October 6), 1.14% below the prior day and 2.96% below a month earlier; Parsan's rally came alongside falling global urea, not on the back of it.
  • Brent crude was about 101 dollars on 14 Mehr (October 6), down from about 107 dollars on 2 Mehr (September 24); Parsan's refining subsidiaries have therefore had no fresh tailwind from that channel either.
  • The free-market dollar reached 2,687,000 rials on 13 Mehr (October 5), about 16% above the 2,317,050 rials of 1 Mehr; in a NAV-driven holding like Parsan, rial weakness can lift the rial value of dollar-linked assets even with no change in global prices.

If it holds

If the close holds above the new 36,760-rial support and volume climbs back above the 40.4 million-share monthly average, a test of the 37,870-rial resistance becomes more likely.

If it breaks

If the close falls below 34,940 rials, the view is invalidated and a return toward the prior invalidation level of 33,300 rials comes back into play.

What to watch

The ratio of volume to the 40.4 million-share monthly average, the trend in global urea (now 435 dollars) and Brent (now about 101 dollars), and how price reacts at the 37,870-rial resistance.

Every call on this symbol

34 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 7 October 08:53BullishParsan (PASN) Closes Above 36,760-Rial Resistance at a One-Year High of 37,230 Rials37,240 rialsup3.0%
  2. 4 October 13:42NeutralParsan's closing price fell below the 36,760 rial support; outlook reverts from bullish to neutral, global urea rose35,680 rialsup4.4%
  3. 29 September 13:43NeutralParsan invalidated the bearish view by breaking above the 35,570 rial invalidation level; now turning neutral35,980 rialsdown0.8%
  4. 22 September 11:43BearishParsan's 8,700 rial cash dividend was on the previous capital; on today's capital the same amount is 2,900 rial per share34,050 rialsup5.7%
  5. 21 September 11:41BearishThat 90-rial gap is gone: two consecutive closes below 35,570 rial, and now I'm turning bearish34,840 rialsdown2.3%
  6. 19 September 11:39NeutralThe supply gap that the previous card was worried about filled in today and retraced the entire range, but the 90 rial invalidation stayed short of being touched36,000 rialsdown3.2%
  7. 16 September 10:37BullishThe 36,260 target was hit in one session, not in two weeks; and that makes us more cautious, not bolder36,780 rialsdown2.1%
  8. 15 September 10:41BullishThis time 35,570 is really a breakout, not the range ceiling; but there's only 152 shares of supply above the price35,750 rialsup2.9%
  9. 14 September 14:03NeutralThe panel held the level, but the currency did the opposite: havaleh up 5.9 percent and free market up 25.3 percent in one month34,510 rialsup3.6%
  10. 14 September 10:38NeutralThe same closing-price criterion, this time favoring the level: closing exactly at 34,860 rial with the last trade below it34,530 rialsdown0.1%
  11. 13 September 12:21NeutralOur benchmark was the closing price, and the close is still below 35,770 rial35,040 rialsdown1.5%
  12. 12 September 11:29BullishParsan stood at the ceiling of its daily range but closed only 0.55 percent higher; we are re-testing the invalidation level35,900 rialsdown2.4%