وبملتBMLTNeutral

Per the last card's own rule, a close above 1,475 rials reverts the view from bearish to neutral, but this reversal has been confirmed for only one session and volume is still below average. I put about 45% odds on the close holding above 1,475 rials over the next few sessions and 30% odds of a slip back toward the 1,410-rial invalidation; otherwise, a range between 1,410 and 1,558 rials looks more likely.

• Bank Mellat's close rose from 1,447 rials the day before to 1,490 rials in the 14 Mehr (October 6) session, clearing the last card's 1,475-rial resistance for the first time; per that card's own rule, the view reverts to neutral.
• One session earlier, on 13 Mehr (October 5), the low dipped to 1,419 rials, just 0.6% from the 1,410-rial invalidation level, before the sharp reversal above resistance.
• The 14 Mehr session's volume of about 4.68 billion shares stayed below the 7.35 billion-share monthly average, despite about 1.11 billion shares of individual net buying; the flow signal is still unconfirmed.
• The free-market dollar reached 2,687,000 rials on 13 Mehr (October 5), about 16% above the 2,317,050 rials of 1 Mehr; unlike the auto and pharma names, this rial weakness can actually help Bank Mellat through the revaluation of its foreign-currency assets.
• The risk-free rate reached 42.62% on 14 Mehr, above its thirty-day average of 41.79%; a rise there both raises the bank's deposit funding costs and reduces the stock's relative appeal against a risk-free asset.