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Sahmino callsStocks

اخابرMKBTBearish

Akhaber rebounded from the bottom of its range to 1,015 rial and touched the 1,000 resistance, but the closing price of 996 rial stayed below it

Horizon: Short-term (7 trading sessions, to 14 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

1,003 rials

That dayup1.7%

Support

961 rials

Resistance

1,045 rials

Invalidation

1,020 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup9.0%

Conclusion

I remain bearish but am lowering confidence from 55 to about 50 percent: the highs keep coming in lower and the price is below the 20-day average, but the defense of 961 rial and the first net real (retail) buying in seven sessions show the seller is no longer one-sided. The risk is in that same sentence: a closing price above 1,020 rial would invalidate this view, and the low 23 percent free float would make such a move quick.

The evidence

  • The 4 Mehr view (bearish, invalidated by a closing price above 1,020 rial) has not been invalidated: on 5 Mehr the last trade of 1,003 rial passed the 1,000 resistance, but the closing price of 996 rial stayed below it.
  • The 5 Mehr range was from 961 to 1,015 rial, and the 963 floor was briefly broken and then recovered. The price is below the 20-day average (1,032.65 rial) and 12.17 percent below the 52-week high (1,134 rial).
  • On 5 Mehr, after six sessions of outflows, retail investors net bought about 183.5 million shares; but the volume of 880 million shares was about 0.6 times the monthly average and buyer strength was 0.64, so the triple confirmation does not hold.
  • Akhaber's revenue is rial-based and domestic, and the dollar has no bearing on it. The main channel is the administered tariff against point-to-point inflation of 87.9 percent (Statistical Center, Tir 1405); tariff delay squeezes the real margin.
  • The TSE P/E is 8.03 against the industry's 8.3 (6 Mehr), and free float is 23 percent. The TSE overall index rose by about 121 thousand units on 5 Mehr; geopolitics here sets the discount rate and volatility, not operating profit.

If it holds

If the closing price stays below 1,020 rial, the base scenario is a return to the 961 rial floor, and if that closing price is broken, the 15 Shahrivar floor at 946 rial by 14 Mehr.

If it breaks

If the closing price is recorded above 1,020 rial, this bearish view is invalidated and the path opens to the 1 Mehr high of 1,045 rial and then the 20-day average.

What to watch

What to watch: a repeat of net real (retail) buying with volume at least double the average, any new tariff approval from the Communications Regulatory Authority, and the closing price relative to 1,000 rial.

Every call on this symbol

35 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 08:32BearishAkhaber rebounded from the bottom of its range to 1,015 rial and touched the 1,000 resistance, but the closing price of 996 rial stayed below it1,003 rialsup9.0%
  2. 26 September 10:47BearishSell queue at the day's permitted floor brought Akhaber within one step of the 963 rial support; we are lowering the invalidation level985 rialsup1.8%
  3. 21 September 10:50NeutralThe 1,060 rial intraday support broke, and now the 20-day average at 1,032 rial decides Akhaber's fate1,042 rialsdown5.5%
  4. 19 September 09:18BearishAhkhabar's net profit is 65 percent higher than operating profit; this difference does not come from telecom service sales1,100 rialsdown5.3%
  5. 16 September 09:12NeutralAkhaber's nominal revenue grew 70.6 percent, but with inflation at 87.9 percent, real revenue shrank by around 9 percent1,143 rialsdown3.8%
  6. 15 September 09:13BullishA 45 percent tariff against 87.9 percent inflation means the real rate has come down, and the stock hit its buy queue ceiling1,110 rialsup3.0%
  7. 14 September 13:27BullishThe 45 percent tariff went into effect and the closing price of 1,078 rial met the morning note's condition: the call on Akhaber is bullish1,091 rialsup1.7%
  8. 14 September 09:32NeutralTwenty minutes later, the 1,069 rial ceiling broke; but the closing price of 1,051 rial is still negative1,079 rialsup1.1%
  9. 14 September 09:13NeutralThe same range got rejected for a second time: Ekhaber opened from 1,060 rial and reached the bottom of the range in five minutes1,044 rialsup3.4%
  10. 13 September 10:51BullishBreaking the 1,045-rial ceiling checks out against the approved tariff, but not against today's volume1,060 rialsdown1.5%
  11. 9 September 09:20NeutralYesterday's buy queue at 1,020 rial met supply the very next day, and this time institutional is on the buy side1,010 rialsup5.0%
  12. 8 September 10:54NeutralEvery share retail bought today, institutional sold; the buy queue on Akhaber at 1,020 rial still has no volume confirmation1,020 rialsdown1.0%