خودروIKCOBearish

I remain bearish but let me be explicit this is not fundamental analysis: in a listing with negative EPS, the move is queue-driven, and I too am reading the queue, not the income statement. I put about 55 percent probability that a close below 629 rial will be recorded by 14 Mehr 1405. The risk is the same one that always exists in this listing: a Competition Council ruling or supply news on the integrated system could turn this card around within two sessions.

• Yesterday's card target of 666 rial was hit exactly, and the invalidation level of 697 rial also did not break, but by one rial: today's ceiling was 696 rial. The last trade is 666 and the closing price is 667 rial, and the session is still open.
• At the first level, 386 orders and 401,915,477 shares offered at the floor of the range of 666 rial, against 20,000 shares demanded (13:26). Today's volume was 7,163,211,921 shares, about 76 percent of the monthly average.
• This is more market news than company news: the TSE overall index fell 1.55 percent today to 113,095 points, the fourth consecutive down session, and is down 5.16 percent since 25 Shahrivar. Khodro has fallen almost twice as much as the index.
• TSE trading value at this same hour today was about 390 thousand billion rial, versus about 748 thousand billion rial yesterday, the lowest figure of these six sessions. That is, the decline is coming from fewer buyers, not from heavy selling.
• There is no room for fundamentals to defend here: the EPS recorded as of 31 Shahrivar is negative 49 rial, so P/E has no meaning, and the price-to-sales ratio is 0.29. Today's real-money flow confirmation triangle cannot be assessed, because buyer strength and net retail flow have not been recorded.