سخوزKHOCNeutral

I am changing the view from bearish to neutral: the 96,000 resistance was broken intraday, but the close has not confirmed, and the previous card's stated criterion (consolidation above 96,000) has not yet been met. The bounce so far is institutional-driven and low-volume, not genuine buying momentum. I put roughly 50 percent probability on today's close settling above 96,000 and the bearish view being invalidated; the main risk is the regional nature of Khuzestan cement demand, which the nationwide rate does not reflect.

• Sekhouz opened today (13 Mehr 1405) with a bearish gap at 91,850 rial, fell to 91,700 rial near the 91,100 support, then rose to a high of 97,080 rial and is now at 96,640 rial, equivalent to 2.23 percent above yesterday's close.
• This means the published 96,000-rial resistance has been broken intraday, but the close has not yet confirmed it; per the previous card's criterion, a closing consolidation above 96,000 would invalidate the bearish view.
• Trading volume so far stands at 644,641 shares, less than half the monthly average (1.54 million shares); net institutional buying of 111,048 shares is seen against an equivalent net retail selling, meaning the bounce has been institutional-driven.
• Cement is a regional commodity; the nationwide commodity exchange rate alone does not reflect Khuzestan demand, and the industry's surplus capacity determines whether higher rates can actually be passed through.
• The risk-free rate reached 42.80 percent on 12 Mehr (up from 39.7 percent at the end of Mordad); for a cement producer whose demand depends on government development budgets, a higher discount rate reduces the present value of future cash flows.