Sahmino callsStocks
کگلGOLGNeutral
Kegel; fresh closing price shut below the 3,112 rial support level, coinciding with heavy retail net outflow, verdict reverts to neutral
Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until around 18 Mehr 1405)
Price when published
3,100 rials
That daydown0.3%
Support
3,042 rials
Resistance
3,112 rials
Invalidation
2,910 rials
The levels on the chart
Since writtenup4.5%
Conclusion
With the 3,112 support broken at the closing price (albeit by only 2 rials) and the largest net retail outflow of the past week, we are changing the verdict from bullish to neutral; 3,112 is now resistance and 3,042 is the fresh support. Unlike Foolad and Fameli, Kegel's profitability is mostly domestic and tied to the Iran Mercantile Exchange base price, not Nima or the free market rate. Only a closing price below 2,910 or above 3,112 rial will clarify the next verdict.
The evidence
- In the session of 11 Mehr 1405 (2026/10/03), Kegel fell 2.66 percent versus the prior session (3,195 rial) to a closing price of 3,110 rial; for the first time below the 3,112 rial support, though only 2 rials lower.
- The low of that same session also reached 3,100 rial, without approaching the day's high (3,220 rial) or the 3,250 rial resistance.
- Retail investors had a net outflow of 510,036,175 units, the largest net outflow in the past week and contrary to the prior session's net inflow.
- Volume on the same day was 896,533,821 units, about 1.12 times the one-month average (798,595,487 units); still below the two-times confirmation threshold.
If it holds
If the closing price stays within the 3,042 to 3,112 rial range, the neutral verdict continues.
If it breaks
If the closing price closes below 2,910 rial the verdict turns bearish, and if it closes above 3,112 rial the verdict turns bullish again.
What to watch
The closing price relative to the three levels of 2,910, 3,042 and 3,112 rial, China's steel production data, and possible divergence with Foolad and Kechad in the same chain.
Every call on this symbol
30 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written
- 4 October 08:56NeutralKegel; fresh closing price shut below the 3,112 rial support level, coinciding with heavy retail net outflow, verdict reverts to neutral3,100 rialsup4.5%
- 3 October 09:00BullishKegel posted its sixth consecutive session of gains with a 2.5 percent bullish gap, reaching 1.7 percent below its 52-week high3,205 rialsdown3.3%
- 30 September 08:54BullishKegel decisively broke the 3,040 rial resistance and logged a fifth straight bullish session; global iron ore, however, stayed flat3,087 rialsup3.8%
- 27 September 10:53BullishQueue larger than a normal day's volume breaks Kegel's 2,910 rial resistance; we move from neutral to cautiously bullish2,954 rialsup4.5%
- 26 September 13:24NeutralKegel at the top of its band, Foulad in the sell queue: this time iron ore leads steel2,904 rialsup1.7%
- 23 September 11:57NeutralToday's buying pressure was absorbed in steel, not in iron ore2,800 rialsup3.7%
- 22 September 11:55BearishYesterday's divergence closed: today Kegel, Kechad and Foolada are all down about three percent, and global steel sheet is negative too2,760 rialsup1.4%
- 19 September 11:26NeutralOur 2,980 rial support was hit, but Kgol is now cheaper than its group, so I am closing the bearish call2,950 rialsdown6.4%
- 16 September 10:52BearishThe demand side is empty: 315 million shares queued to sell at the floor of the band, and our 3,034-rial invalidation level broke right here3,030 rialsdown2.6%
- 14 September 10:56NeutralOur own 3,161 rial support was touched one rial lower and drew a sell queue; we are moving from bullish to neutral3,160 rialsdown4.1%
- 12 September 11:23BullishFrom concentrate to steel, all three links in the chain went near the band ceiling today, but this isn't the confirmation we had asked for3,250 rialsdown2.8%
- 8 September 12:50BullishThe condition we had set ourselves was removed today, but the confirmation we had asked for from Foolad did not come3,125 rialsup4.0%