Sahmino callsStocks
فملیMSMIBullish
Fameli; with a buy queue for the third session, the closing price broke above the 27,870 rial resistance and hit a 52-week record
Horizon: Short-term (until 15 Mehr 1405, about 4 trading sessions)
Price when published
28,210 rials
That dayup3.0%
Support
27,870 rials
Invalidation
26,080 rials
The levels on the chart
Since writtenup6.6%
Conclusion
With the closing price breaking above the 27,870 resistance and setting a 52-week record alongside a buy queue for the third session, we renew 27,870 as support and 26,080 as the invalidation line; we raise the probability of continued growth until 15 Mehr to 70 percent. The real driver of the growth is the 9.2 percent rise in the exchange center's remittance dollar, not the 14 percent jump in the free-market dollar, which is a cost pressure. Risk: buyer strength is below 1 and retail inflow is weak.
The evidence
- In the session of 11 Mehr 1405 (2026/10/03), Fameli's closing price rose 2.67 percent from the previous session (27,390 rial) to reach 28,120 rial; above the 27,870 rial resistance and equal to the recent 52-week high.
- Volume in the same session was 1,001,661,404 units, about 2.1 times the one-month average (481,086,312 units); the symbol closed with a buy queue and remaining demand at the price ceiling (about 11 million units).
- However, the buyer-to-seller power ratio was recorded at 0.53 and retail investors had only 8,132,117 units of net exit; meaning despite the buy queue, two of the three conditions for confirming demand are not yet in place.
If it holds
If the closing price stays above the new support of 27,870 rial, continuation of the uptrend and a test of higher levels is likely.
If it breaks
If the closing price closes below the invalidation line of 26,080 rial, we will abandon the bullish view.
What to watch
Continuation of the buy queue and the ratio of actual volume to the one-month average, and Codal's monthly activity report (days 1 to 10 of each month) for the sales rate.
Every call on this symbol
34 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written
- 4 October 08:45BullishFameli; with a buy queue for the third session, the closing price broke above the 27,870 rial resistance and hit a 52-week record28,210 rialsup6.6%
- 29 September 13:40BullishFameli hit the ceiling of its range and the buy queue of 110 million shares passed the 26,080 rial resistance26,600 rialsup6.1%
- 23 September 11:32Neutral31 million shares queued to buy, while today's net retail is negative25,030 rialsup6.3%
- 22 September 11:38NeutralUnlike most of the board, there is a buyer below Fameli's price: 61 million shares demand against 1.9 million supply24,170 rialsup3.6%
- 21 September 11:37BearishThe implied dollar rate in cathode reached 1,847,000 rial and its discount to the free-market rate narrowed from 23 to 20 percent; this is against my thesis24,780 rialsdown2.5%
- 20 September 11:49BearishThe implied dollar rate in the Commodity Exchange cathode price is about 1,792,000 rial, 23 percent below today's free dollar25,530 rialsdown2.9%
- 19 September 11:09BearishThe 26,260 rial invalidation I set myself was touched, so I withdraw the neutral vote and turn bearish26,240 rialsdown2.7%
- 16 September 13:48NeutralGlobal copper at a seven-week low and Fameli stuck to its 52-week ceiling; this very contradiction keeps me neutral27,410 rialsdown4.3%
- 16 September 10:17NeutralFameli went as high as 27,870 rial and came back to 26,380; our condition was a close above 27,260, and today it still wasn't met26,670 rialsup2.8%
- 15 September 10:22NeutralMordad report: Fameli sold cathode domestically 12 percent more expensive than exports; this is exactly the Nima-free market gap27,180 rialsdown1.9%
- 14 September 10:52NeutralThe resistance ceiling we ourselves had called broke today and gave it right back; 27,260 rial did not hold26,270 rialsup3.5%
- 13 September 12:16NeutralEach unit of export cathode brings in 10 percent less rial than domestic cathode; that figure is NIMA26,860 rialsdown2.2%