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Sahmino callsStocks

غکورشKRSHNeutral

Ghekoresh broke through the 25,840 rial resistance, but the two conditions for the previous card to turn bullish are still unmet

Horizon: Medium-short-term (3 weeks, until 22 Mehr 1405 or the extraordinary general meeting)

Price when published

26,710 rials

That dayup3.0%

Support

25,290 rials

Resistance

27,150 rials

Invalidation

24,660 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup12.2%

Conclusion

I remain neutral and raise the invalidation level from 24,340 to 24,660 rial (31 Shahrivar closing): I estimate about a 60 percent probability that no closing below it will be recorded by 22 Mehr. I am not turning bullish because today's buy queue was built with volume less than one-sixth of the average; the main risk is the Consumer Protection Organization's ruling on the consumer price, and if the general meeting does not approve the capital increase proposal, part of this rally will be given back.

The evidence

  • The 25,840 rial resistance of the 1 Mehr card was broken: the 4 Mehr closing was 25,940 rial, and today, 5 Mehr 1405, the listing closed with a buy queue at the ceiling of the price band, at 26,710 rial (up 2.97 percent).
  • The price is 1.6 percent below the 52-week highest closing (27,150 rial, 22 Shahrivar) and 6.4 percent above the 20-day average of 25,093 rial.
  • Today's volume was about 8.1 million shares, far below the previous card's threshold of 48.4 million shares and the monthly average of 52.5 million. On 4 Mehr, retail investors also net sold about 21 million shares.
  • In our general meeting records over the past 30 days, no approval for Ghekoresh's capital increase has been recorded; so the growth driver is still a board proposal, not an executed decision.
  • The free-market dollar at 2,344,700 rial (5 Mehr, intraday) is near its 52-week high: imported inputs become more expensive while the consumer price is regulated, so margins are squeezed. We do not yet have the volume and rial breakdown of Mehr sales.

If it holds

If closings stay above 24,660 rial, testing the 27,150 rial ceiling of 22 Shahrivar is the base scenario; I will turn bullish if the general meeting approves the amount and funding source and volume exceeds 48.4 million shares.

If it breaks

If the closing price is recorded below 24,660 rial, this view is invalidated and the news-driven growth of Shahrivar and Mehr has been fully given back.

What to watch

What to watch: the date and approval of the extraordinary general meeting, volume relative to 48.4 million shares, the monthly activity report with volume and sales rate breakdown, and Consumer Protection Organization rulings.

Every call on this symbol

30 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 27 September 13:35NeutralGhekoresh broke through the 25,840 rial resistance, but the two conditions for the previous card to turn bullish are still unmet26,710 rialsup12.2%
  2. 23 September 13:46NeutralToday's ceiling was built by the capital increase letter, not profit: it's a board proposal and has not yet passed any general meeting25,390 rialsup5.2%
  3. 22 September 14:07NeutralI'm taking back this morning's card: the queue that was built on 62 percent of volume reversed on 54 percent of volume24,500 rialsup3.6%
  4. 22 September 08:38BullishThe buy queue in Ghakoresh, after a complete recovery from the range's floor to its ceiling, formed on only 62 percent of the monthly average volume25,840 rialsdown5.2%
  5. 21 September 11:00NeutralOur invalidation level was 24,330 rial and today's range floor was 24,340 rial; it was the trading range that held this view, not a buyer24,850 rialsup4.0%
  6. 20 September 11:00NeutralThat 24 percent drop was not in the household oil product's sales volume: the main product of Ghokorsh had grown 14 percent25,090 rialsdown1.0%
  7. 19 September 09:25BearishGokorsh's sales amount rose 335 percent but its sales volume fell 24 percent25,730 rialsdown2.5%
  8. 16 September 13:30NeutralThe invalidation level I flagged this morning was broken; I'm moving the view from bullish to neutral27,000 rialsdown4.7%
  9. 16 September 09:25BullishGhakoorsh's sales, even after deflating for 87.9 percent inflation, are up nearly threefold; this one really is growth27,560 rialsdown2.0%
  10. 15 September 09:39NeutralGh-Koresh went from floor to ceiling of our range in 35 minutes and touched our invalidation line26,500 rialsup4.0%
  11. 14 September 09:48NeutralThe entire range was traversed in 45 minutes: from 27,890 to a floor of 26,340 rial and back, with a 14 percent float27,130 rialsdown2.3%
  12. 13 September 11:12NeutralLiquid oil sales value rose 424 percent, volume 14 percent; the rest is approved pricing27,000 rialsup0.5%