Skip to main content
Up to 53% offSee the plans

Sahmino callsStocks

Equal-Weighted Total IndexTEPIXEWBullish

The equal weight index set a fresh record at 2,150,438 points; its distance to the 2,200,000 resistance fell below 2.5%

Horizon: Short term (5 to 8 trading sessions ahead)

Price when published

2,150,438

That dayup1.7%

Support

2,113,966

Resistance

2,200,000

Invalidation

2,065,876

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

The bullish view strengthens: the equal weight index set a fresh record alongside TEDPIX, and its distance to the 2,200,000 point resistance narrowed to about 2.3%. With yesterday's retail flow positive, I put the odds of touching that resistance in the near term at about 55%; but with the risk free rate staying high, I also give about 25% odds of a slip back below the fresh support of 2,113,966 points. Full invalidation requires a close below 2,065,876 points.

The evidence

  • The equal weight index rose 1.82% today, Wednesday 15 Mehr, to 2,150,438 points, a fresh record high above yesterday's close of 2,113,966 points; exactly the 1.26% volatility threshold that triggered this card.
  • TEDPIX rose 1.93% on the same day, slightly more than the equal weight index; today's gain was broadly aligned, with only a small tilt toward the larger names.
  • The latest complete retail flow data (yesterday, Tuesday 14 Mehr) shows a net 10.4 billion share inflow to individual investors; retail money coming in, not leaving, sits behind this rally.
  • The risk free rate stood at 42.6% on 14 Mehr; while this rate stays high, retail money flowing into smaller names, the equal weight index's main driver, will likely stay more cautious.
  • The index's distance to the 2,200,000 point resistance is now about 2.3%, down from about 4.2% at the prior card (14 Mehr); I tightened the invalidation level to the prior support of 2,065,876 points.

If it holds

If support at 2,113,966 points holds and retail flow stays positive, reaching the 2,200,000 point resistance in the near term is likely.

If it breaks

If the close falls back below 2,065,876 points, the bullish view is invalidated and a return toward the 2,030,148 point range becomes more likely.

What to watch

Retail cash flow in the coming sessions, small cap turnover, and whether TEDPIX and the equal weight index keep moving together or the rally narrows to a few large names.

Every call on this symbol

19 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 7 October 13:44BullishThe equal weight index set a fresh record at 2,150,438 points; its distance to the 2,200,000 resistance fell below 2.5%2,150,438unchanged0.0%
  2. 6 October 11:11BullishTEPIXEW breaks above the 2,100,000 point resistance and sets a fresh record; today's gain is fairly broad based2,112,039up1.8%
  3. 30 September 11:02BullishThe equal-weight index reached a new all-time high beyond 2,063,900 units; its one-year growth has even outpaced the main index2,064,103up2.3%
  4. 29 September 13:32BullishEqual-weight breaks above the 2,017,495-point resistance; now only half a percent from the all-time high2,030,148up1.7%
  5. 29 September 08:48BullishEqual-weight index passed the 1,994,188-unit invalidation level; view shifts from neutral to bullish2,005,169up1.2%
  6. 27 September 13:25NeutralThe 1,902,454-point downside target was not reached and the equal-weight index bounced 1.63 percent today: the view turns neutral1,961,117up2.2%
  7. 20 September 11:25BearishThe equal-weight index topped out one session before the main index, and that one session was the only warning the market gave1,944,065up0.9%
  8. 19 September 09:37BearishThe equal-weight index is 367 units above the invalidation level we had set ourselves; that's 0.02 percent1,994,556down2.5%
  9. 16 September 13:40NeutralThe main index rose and the equal-weight index fell; this very divergence makes my bullish condition harder to satisfy2,016,173down1.1%
  10. 16 September 09:48NeutralUpgrade condition is one session away: the gap closed on two straight sessions, but today's real money hasn't been recorded yet2,038,145down1.1%
  11. 13 September 11:48NeutralGap with the total index narrows for the first time; I'm writing the upgrade condition as a number2,005,140up1.6%
  12. 12 September 10:18NeutralThe equal-weight index is also at a fresh ceiling, but over one month it has lagged the overall index by 4.2 percentage points, and today the gap widened further1,963,792up2.1%