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Sahmino callsStocks

رمپناMAPNNeutral

Rampana broke the 12,120 rial support intraday and reached a low of 12,080 rial; the close has not confirmed yet

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks)

Price when published

12,080 rials

That daydown3.0%

Support

12,120 rials

Resistance

12,580 rials

Invalidation

11,440 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown1.7%

Conclusion

The view downgrades from bullish to neutral: the break of the 12,120 rial support is intraday, not confirmed by close; the invalidation level of 11,440 has not been touched and the previous card is not void. But a seller strength of 0.59, volume 3.6 times the average, and real-money selling of 30 million shares are concerning. Until the close is clear, I give a 55 percent probability of consolidation below 12,120 and a 45 percent probability of the break holding; the main risk is delay in collection of government receivables.

The evidence

  • Rampana today (13 Mehr 1405) rose to a high of 12,580 rial and then fell to a low of 12,080 rial; the latest price at 10:40 o'clock is 2.97 percent lower than yesterday's close (12,450 rial).
  • The support level published in the previous card (12,120 rial) has been broken intraday, but the listing is still open; this break has not been confirmed by close and the invalidation level (11,440 rial) has not been touched yet.
  • Trading volume by 10:40 o'clock reached 113.7 million shares, about 3.6 times the monthly average (31.8 million shares); the buyer-to-seller strength ratio is 0.59 and net real-money volume is negative 30.1 million shares.
  • On the order book, supply at the price of 12,080 (today's range low) has reached 35 million shares in 369 orders, while demand is only 3,426 shares in 3 orders at the price of 11,760.
  • The risk-free rate rose from 39.7 percent at the end of Mordad to 42.80 percent on 12 Mehr, and the free-market dollar jumped about 14 percent within a week (2,350,000 to 2,683,000 rial); for Rampana these two have a negative effect via the cost and discount-rate channel, not revenue.

If it holds

If today's close stays above 12,120 rial, last week's bullish breakout remains valid and a retest of the 12,580 rial high would not be unexpected.

If it breaks

If the close is recorded below 12,120 rial, especially as it approaches 11,440 rial, the bullish breakout will be considered failed and the view will be invalidated.

What to watch

Today's close relative to 12,120 rial, real-money behavior in the second half of the session, and the ratio of remaining volume to the monthly average of 31.8 million shares.

Every call on this symbol

26 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 5 October 10:52NeutralRampana broke the 12,120 rial support intraday and reached a low of 12,080 rial; the close has not confirmed yet12,080 rialsdown1.7%
  2. 4 October 10:51BullishRampana, with a 73 million share buy queue, broke the 12,330 rial resistance intraday and reached the 12,480 rial ceiling12,480 rialsdown3.2%
  3. 3 October 13:30BullishWith a 200 percent capital increase and a ten-session halt, Rampanna breaks the adjusted resistance on reopening with real trading12,070 rialsup3.4%
  4. 16 September 09:16BullishRampana broke the ceiling on a real trade, not on a queue; yet less than one percent of its current assets is cash34,400 rialsdown64.9%
  5. 15 September 09:18NeutralRampanna's price-to-earnings ratio went from below the industry average to above it, on the very day it hit its 52-week high34,000 rialsup1.2%
  6. 14 September 09:28NeutralThe third sell-off since reopening, but this time at a 4.49x ratio below the industry average33,210 rialsup2.4%
  7. 13 September 10:55NeutralThe same pattern as September 7 repeated: reopening at the range ceiling and selling as the session continued33,690 rialsdown1.4%
  8. 12 September 09:17Neutral247 million shares moved from retail to institutional over seven sessions, through the entire stretch in which Rampana rose 11 percent33,060 rialsup1.9%
  9. 9 September 09:15NeutralToday's low was 30,700 rial, below the invalidation level we ourselves announced yesterday, so we are withdrawing the bullish call31,060 rialsup6.4%
  10. 8 September 10:58BullishOur 30,830-rial invalidation level broken one session later; we drop the neutral reading, though today's volume is half the average31,480 rialsdown1.3%
  11. 7 September 09:12NeutralRampanna's five-session streak of genuine retail selling breaks this morning, but it's only a few minutes into the market and this is not confirmation30,670 rialsup2.6%
  12. 5 September 11:05BearishRampanna breaks 29,410 rial support; dropped to 28,920 rial today and is now trading at 29,200 rial29,200 rialsup5.0%