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Silver 999XAG999Neutral

Silver 999 from Bullish to Neutral: Ounce Fell Back 3 Percent and the Free Dollar Offset Only Part of It

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until around 15 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

5,045,300 rials

That dayup0.1%

Resistance

5,139,600 rials

Invalidation

4,954,900 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup6.0%

Conclusion

I am moving from bullish to neutral, because the target remained untouched and instead of helping, the global leg pulled the price down. I give about 55 percent probability that the price stays between 4,954,900 and 5,139,600 rial until 15 Mehr. Risk: a jump in the free dollar could break the range from above even with the ounce steady, and a drop in the ounce with silver's high volatility could break it from below.

The evidence

  • Silver 999 at 5,045,300 rial per gram (Saturday, 4 Mehr 1405, 13:23, intraday), about 1.5 percent below the 28 Shahrivar card price. The 4,954,900 invalidation level was not broken, but the 5,381,200 target also remained distant.
  • The silver ounce went from 66.24 dollars (28 Shahrivar) to 64.26 dollars (4 Mehr), about a 3 percent drop; the free dollar rose from 2,302,750 to 2,344,950 rial, about 1.8 percent up. The global leg caused the decline.
  • The gold-to-silver ratio is about 66.7 (gold ounce 4,285 dollars, silver ounce 64.26 dollars, 4 Mehr); this is my own reading of our data and shows silver is not cheaper than long-term averages relative to gold.
  • The price is below the 20-day average (5,068,640 rial) and 20-day volatility is about 2.3 percent per day; silver is structurally more volatile than gold, and its industrial demand makes it sensitive to the growth cycle.

If it holds

If 4,954,900 rial holds, the base scenario is fluctuation below 5,139,600 rial (28 Shahrivar closing); crossing above it brings the outlook back closer to bullish.

If it breaks

If the price closes below 4,954,900 rial (24 Shahrivar closing), the neutral view is invalidated and the path opens toward the floor of 4,858,200 rial (26 Shahrivar).

What to watch

What to watch: the silver ounce around 64 dollars, the free dollar, the gold-to-silver ratio, and US inflation data and Federal Reserve signals.

Every call on this symbol

17 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 26 September 13:27NeutralSilver 999 from Bullish to Neutral: Ounce Fell Back 3 Percent and the Free Dollar Offset Only Part of It5,045,300 rialsup6.0%
  2. 19 September 11:45BullishThe previous card's ceiling was hit, and this time the bubble also shrank a bit, so I'm staying bullish but with a stricter line5,124,600 rialsdown1.5%
  3. 16 September 08:54BullishRial silver has two engines, and tonight only one of them is at risk; the real risk of this call is a 5.8 percent bubble5,061,800 rialsup1.2%
  4. 14 September 13:54NeutralYesterday's bearish signal was invalidated, and then the market went the same route anyway: today's entire 3.3 percent decline came from the bubble collapsing4,920,000 rialsup2.9%
  5. 13 September 13:08BearishSilver fell in four of five sessions and compressed the bubble to 4.1 percent; our support went4,968,700 rialsdown1.0%
  6. 9 September 10:59NeutralThis time the ounce did the work, not the bubble: the bubble came down from 6.9 to 5.7 percent, but our 67.13-dollar condition still hasn't been met5,148,200 rialsdown3.5%
  7. 9 September 09:00NeutralThe gram silver bubble went from 4.3 to 6.9 percent above ounce-equivalent value in three sessions, and all of this week's rally came from exactly that5,122,700 rialsup0.5%
  8. 5 September 13:51BullishSilver 999 grew again, but this time the main driver is the free dollar, not the global ounce, which stayed nearly motionless5,040,600 rialsup1.6%
  9. 5 September 09:01BullishSilver 999 hit a multi-week record; this time, unlike the previous card, global silver also rose, not just the dollar4,920,300 rialsup2.4%
  10. 2 September 11:44BullishSilver 999 reached 4,703,000 rial and recaptured yesterday's resistance; but global silver fell today, it's entirely the dollar4,703,000 rialsup4.6%
  11. 1 September 13:01BearishSilver 999 lost the 4,609,100 rial support; today unlike yesterday, silver also fell behind global gold4,614,600 rialsup1.9%
  12. 31 August 11:38BullishSilver 999 broke through the resistance at 4,662,100 rial; unlike global gold which fell, silver ounce rose 1.48 percent4,693,300 rialsdown1.7%