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Sahmino callsGold

18 karat goldXAU18Bullish

18K Gold Sets a Record for a Fourth Straight Session at 267,383,000 Rials, Still a Dollar Story Not an Ounce One

Horizon: Short term (1 to 2 weeks, to about 29 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

267,383,000 rials

That dayunchanged0.0%

Support

262,253,000 rials

Invalidation

256,944,000 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

The bullish view holds: this fourth straight record is still mainly a free-market dollar story, not the global ounce, which has stayed almost flat. I am raising the support to 262,253,000 rials and the invalidation to 256,944,000 rials. The risk of a dollar reversal on any diplomatic progress still stands. I put about 60% odds on the price holding above the new support by about 29 Mehr.

The evidence

  • 18K gold reached 267,383,000 rials today (14 Mehr), a fresh record and 1.96% above the 262,253,000 rials at the time of the last card (12 Mehr).
  • Per the latest recorded data (13 Mehr), the global gold ounce was 4,140.73 dollars, almost unchanged from 4,140.19 dollars on 11 Mehr; over the same span the free-market dollar rose from 2,679,000 to 2,687,000 rials.
  • From 1 Mehr to 13 Mehr the free-market dollar jumped about 16%, from 2,317,050 to 2,687,000 rials, while the global ounce moved little over the same span; the rial gold records are still mostly a currency story, not a global-market one.
  • I am raising the support to 262,253,000 rials (the last card's record high) and the invalidation to 256,944,000 rials (the last card's support); since the price is at a one-year high, there is no technical resistance overhead.

If it holds

If the free-market dollar keeps rising and the close stays above 262,253,000 rials, fresh rial records should continue.

If it breaks

If the close falls back below the 256,944,000-rial invalidation, it means either the dollar has reversed or the global ounce has dropped, and the bullish view needs a rethink.

What to watch

The free-market dollar's trend (now 2,687,000 rials), whether the global ounce (now 4,140.73 dollars) stays stable or falls, and any diplomatic news that could reverse the dollar.

Every call on this symbol

31 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 7 October 08:57Bullish18K Gold Sets a Record for a Fourth Straight Session at 267,383,000 Rials, Still a Dollar Story Not an Ounce One267,383,000 rialsunchanged0.0%
  2. 4 October 08:49Bullish18-karat gold; fresh record of 262,253,000 rial set while the global gold ounce declined262,253,000 rialsup2.0%
  3. 3 October 08:52BullishThe fresh record for 18-karat gold reached 256,944,000 rial, but the global ounce practically stood still; the growth belongs to the dollar256,944,000 rialsup2.1%
  4. 30 September 08:48BullishThe neutral view on 18-karat gold has been invalidated: the close reached a record of 252,655,000 rial, but this jump is dollar-driven, not ounce-driven252,655,000 rialsup1.7%
  5. 28 September 13:28Neutral18-karat gold rose to within 0.6 percent below the channel ceiling, and its calculated value sits at the same spot243,538,000 rialsup3.7%
  6. 26 September 08:38NeutralThe bearish thesis for 18-karat gold lost to the dollar: the ounce fell and the rial price passed above the invalidation level241,246,000 rialsup1.0%
  7. 23 September 11:47BearishHalf this price is not gold at all236,050,000 rialsup2.2%
  8. 21 September 11:48NeutralThe ounce reopened and made its point: of today's 0.9 percent drop in 18-karat gold, 0.84 of a point was the metal and the dollar was positive239,081,000 rialsdown1.3%
  9. 20 September 13:31NeutralRecord was within reach and was rejected: 18-karat gold rose to 244,944,000 rial and pulled back, without the ounce saying a word during the global holiday243,035,000 rialsdown1.6%
  10. 19 September 11:23NeutralResistance broke, but the Emami coin bubble deflated by 2,240,000 rial at the same time, so this is an internal rotation, not a metal move237,139,000 rialsup2.5%
  11. 15 September 09:03NeutralYesterday the rial weakened but gold also got cheaper; this combination means domestic market excitement has drained out, not the metal232,834,000 rialsup1.8%
  12. 13 September 12:27NeutralToday's drop in rial-priced gold was the dollar's doing, not the metal's: dollar down 1.58 and gold down 1.21 percent236,278,000 rialsdown1.5%