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Sahmino callsGold

Mesghal Gold FundZARANeutral

Three gold funds, three premiums: Mesghal 2.16, Gang 2.13 and Ayar 4.59 percent in one day

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, through 16 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

197,977 rials

That dayup2.5%

Support

193,179 rials

Invalidation

197,562 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup5.1%

Conclusion

My own rule is that a premium under 3 percent is neutral, and I remain neutral, but I declare the premium forecast lost and lower my confidence from 60 to 50 percent that no closing price above 197,562 rial will be recorded through 16 Mehr. Risk: the last trade right now is above this line, and continued growth in the free dollar is enough to break it.

The evidence

  • Closing price of 6 Mehr 1405: 196,817 rial (1.88 percent growth), above the 196,650 resistance and below the 197,562 rial invalidation level; the last trade of 197,977 rial crossed the line, but this is intraday pressure, not a closing price.
  • The 30 Shahrivar card's premium forecast turned out wrong: the premium to net asset value per unit (192,650 rial, 6 Mehr) reached 2.16 percent, outside the negative 1 to positive 1 percent range.
  • The underlying asset only rose about 0.6 percent today (ounce down 3.08 percent, free dollar up 3.75 percent); the rest of the board's gain is premium.
  • Comparing the three funds on the same day: Mesghal's and Gang's premiums are roughly equal, and Ayar's 4.59 percent is double theirs; Mesghal's market value is about 590 thousand billion rial.
  • Volume through 13:25 was about 54.9 million units, slightly above the monthly average of 48.3 million; buyer-to-seller strength is 0.55.

If it holds

If the closing price stays below 197,562 rial, the base scenario is the premium closing via the net asset value rising, with fluctuation down to the 193,179 rial support (5 Mehr closing).

If it breaks

If the closing price closes above 197,562 rial, the neutral view is invalidated and the market has accepted a premium above 2 percent.

What to watch

What to watch: the daily premium relative to the 3 percent threshold, the gap between the three funds' premiums, and the free dollar relative to 2,438,200 rial.

Every call on this symbol

19 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 13:36NeutralThree gold funds, three premiums: Mesghal 2.16, Gang 2.13 and Ayar 4.59 percent in one day197,977 rialsup5.1%
  2. 21 September 14:00NeutralAll three gold funds on the board stuck to NAV today; mesghal at a discount of 0.69 percent, well below my own three percent line190,174 rialsup4.1%
  3. 20 September 13:58NeutralMy line broke and the bubble I said would narrow widened instead: the mesghal closed at 195,581 rial and its premium is 2.72 percent195,000 rialsdown2.5%
  4. 19 September 13:43NeutralThree gold funds, one metal and three different prices: the Mesghal premium is 1.95 percent and the Ganj premium is 0.35 percent190,833 rialsup2.2%
  5. 16 September 14:02NeutralMorning's bearish call invalidated; fund premium widened from 0.13 to 0.87 percent, and the Federal Reserve's decision still hasn't come185,900 rialsup2.7%
  6. 16 September 09:01BearishMesghal's discount closed and reached a 0.13 percent premium, while Ganj still has a 1.32 percent discount182,813 rialsup1.7%
  7. 13 September 13:13NeutralAll three gold funds went from premium to discount, and their order of cheapness stayed unchanged185,637 rialsdown1.5%
  8. 8 September 13:22NeutralYesterday's 0.98 percent discount became today's 1.08 percent premium, and this same today the gold coin bubble moved the opposite way187,100 rialsdown0.8%
  9. 7 September 10:57NeutralThe pre-invalidation threshold was touched before Sunday; the bullish view on the mesghal card is invalidated and the fund now trades below NAV182,800 rialsup2.4%
  10. 2 September 13:51BullishThe Mesghal fund broke through the 181,000 rial resistance and set a fresh record; unlike the coin and quarter coin, the premium is near zero181,709 rialsup0.6%
  11. 1 September 13:08NeutralMesghal lost the 181,000 rial support and briefly even went below the view-invalidation level (176,800 rial)178,892 rialsup1.6%
  12. 1 September 08:59BullishMesghal too, like Ganj, broke the 181,000 rial resistance and set a fresh record; higher liquidity again pushed volume past the average181,351 rialsdown1.4%