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Sahmino callsGold

Ayar Gold FundMOFDNeutral

A simultaneous pullback in gold and the free dollar pulled MOFD down 2.95%; the 750,000 rial resistance was only touched intraday

Horizon: Short term (one to two weeks, to about 29 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

717,100 rials

That daydown3.0%

Support

713,145 rials

Resistance

750,000 rials

Invalidation

692,740 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

The view moves from bullish to neutral: the 750,000 rial resistance was only touched intraday, never closed above, while today's joint drop in gold and the dollar pulled the fund down 2.95%. While support at 713,145 rials holds, the uptrend stays intact; I put the odds of a fresh push above 750,000 at 45%, a slip below support at 30%, and full invalidation requires a close under 692,740 rials.

The evidence

  • MOFD's closing price today, Wednesday 15 Mehr 1405, reached 717,652 rials, 2.95% below yesterday's close of 739,453 rials, exactly the 1.96% volatility threshold that triggered this card.
  • Global spot gold fell to 4,118.5 dollars today (down 1.07%) and the free market dollar fell to 2,619,000 rials (down 2.64%); these two declines explain most of the fund's pullback, not a fund specific factor.
  • The fund traded today at a 1.59% discount to its own NAV of 729,276 rials; its market price sits slightly below net asset value rather than above it, which limits positive bubble risk for now.
  • The Emami coin's bubble (premium over melt value) rose by 4,405,000 rials today to 113,954,000 rials, even though the coin's own price fell 1.64%; because the fund also holds coin deposit certificates, this bubble affects NAV separately from gold and the dollar.
  • The 750,000 rial resistance was only touched intraday on Sunday 12 Mehr (a high of 758,991 rials) and no close was recorded above it; support at 713,145 rials (the close of 8 Mehr) has not been touched yet.

If it holds

If support at 713,145 rials holds and either gold or the dollar jumps again, a fresh attempt at a close above 750,000 rials becomes likely.

If it breaks

If the close falls below 692,740 rials, the bullish view is fully invalidated and a return to the September range (about 640,000 to 660,000 rials) comes into play.

What to watch

Global gold, the free market dollar, and the Emami coin bubble, which affects part of the fund's holdings; tomorrow night's NAV change (against today's 729,276 rials) should also be watched.

Every call on this symbol

24 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 7 October 13:33NeutralA simultaneous pullback in gold and the free dollar pulled MOFD down 2.95%; the 750,000 rial resistance was only touched intraday717,100 rialsunchanged0.0%
  2. 3 October 13:33BullishWith another leap in the free-market dollar, the unit stood one step from the 750,000-rial resistance; the gold ounce saw little change today739,500 rialsdown3.0%
  3. 29 September 13:25BullishThe resistance level of 692,740 rial was broken with the closing price; the main driver was the 3.15 percent jump in the free market dollar714,751 rialsup3.5%
  4. 29 September 08:51NeutralAyar's final-price ceiling held; yesterday's ounce drop and dollar jump canceled each other out692,310 rialsup3.2%
  5. 28 September 13:22NeutralThe bearish Ayar card was invalidated, and most of today's gain came from the fund's premium growing larger, not from the gold itself693,555 rialsdown0.2%
  6. 27 September 10:49BearishThe neutral outlook lost: price broke through the 667,896 rial invalidation level and fund premium rebounded to 2.43 percent667,969 rialsup3.8%
  7. 21 September 13:26NeutralThe ayar fund's bubble closed from 3.35 to 0.57 percent, and most of today's decline came from here, not from the ounce654,530 rialsup2.1%
  8. 20 September 13:25BearishInvalidator breached: ounce closed at 670,507 rial and its one-year high, but NAV did not move and the premium jumped to 3.35 percent670,985 rialsdown2.5%
  9. 20 September 11:14NeutralThe Ayar bubble closed at 0.61 percent as I said, and today it has opened back up again, without ounce or dollar having moved658,089 rialsup2.0%
  10. 19 September 13:31NeutralThe Ayar bubble widened from near zero to 2.49 percent, and that on less than 40 percent of monthly average volume653,602 rialsup0.7%
  11. 15 September 13:27NeutralThe 1.8 percent drop in the ETF's trading premium did not come from gold, it came from the fund's own premium630,100 rialsup3.7%
  12. 15 September 08:57BearishThe same gap that was a buy on 22 Shahrivar now stands 1.18 percent above NAV635,900 rialsdown0.9%