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Sahmino callsGold

Ganj Gold FundGANJNeutral

Ganj crossed our neutral invalidation line and its premium reached 2.13 percent, less than half Ayar's premium

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 19 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

212,491 rials

That dayup2.5%

Support

207,384 rials

Resistance

212,579 rials

Invalidation

205,749 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup4.2%

Conclusion

I declare the neutral card lost and stay neutral with a new window: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price below 205,749 rial will be recorded until 19 Mehr, because the free dollar is lifting net asset value. Risk: the 2.13 percent premium is new, and with a reversal in the dollar or continued decline in the ounce, the price could fall from both sides at once, the underlying asset and the premium.

The evidence

  • The neutral view of the 5 Mehr card was invalidated: the 6 Mehr 1405 closing price reached 211,237 rial (1.86 percent growth), above the invalidation level of 208,100 rial; the last trade was 212,491 rial.
  • The premium to net asset value per unit (206,827 rial, 6 Mehr) reached 2.13 percent, outside the negative 1 to positive 1.5 percent range the previous card had forecast.
  • Today's breakdown: the ounce 3.08 percent lower and the free dollar 3.75 percent higher, netting to about 0.6 percent for the underlying asset; the rest of the growth came from the premium.
  • Ganj's distinguishing feature: its premium is less than half Ayar's 4.59 percent premium on the same day, with a market value of about 613 thousand billion rial versus about 3,502 thousand billion rial for Ayar.
  • Volume up to 13:25 was about 24.6 million units versus a monthly average of 36.6 million; buyer-to-seller power ratio 0.53.

If it holds

If the closing price stays above 207,384 rial (5 Mehr close), the base scenario is fluctuation below the ceiling of 212,579 rial until net asset value catches up to the price.

If it breaks

If the closing price closes below 205,749 rial (4 Mehr close), this view is invalidated, and the premium along with the underlying asset is reversing.

What to watch

What to watch: the daily premium relative to 2.13 percent, the gap between Ganj's and Ayar's premiums, and the free dollar relative to 2,438,200 rial.

Every call on this symbol

20 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 13:35NeutralGanj crossed our neutral invalidation line and its premium reached 2.13 percent, less than half Ayar's premium212,491 rialsup4.2%
  2. 27 September 10:54NeutralGanj's 1.80 percent discount reached a 0.41 percent premium in three sessions; our bullish call reached its target and we go neutral206,287 rialsup3.0%
  3. 21 September 13:57BullishTwo gold funds, one metal, two prices: Ganj 1.80 percent below NAV and Ayar 0.57 percent above it202,350 rialsup1.9%
  4. 20 September 13:55NeutralThe 203,736 ceiling was hit and I'm taking profit; Ganj's premium went from 0.35 to 1.37 percent, though it's still less than half of Ayar's premium207,129 rialsdown2.3%
  5. 19 September 13:37BullishGold Fund (Gheymat-e Noghre va Tala or similar) broke above the 197,596 rial ceiling and is still trading only 0.35 percent above redemption value201,700 rialsup2.7%
  6. 16 September 08:57NeutralGold Fund is 4.7 percent below its annual ceiling and gold ounce is 20 percent; it is the rial that built this gap, not gold193,000 rialsup4.5%
  7. 15 September 13:40NeutralGanj's 2.7 percent discount beside Ayar's 0.64 percent is a difference of size, not opportunity194,694 rialsdown0.9%
  8. 13 September 13:11NeutralThe fund fell faster than the coin backing it, and its discount reached 3.4 percent; our support broke197,653 rialsdown1.5%
  9. 5 September 13:54BullishGanj hit a fresh record after breaking the 194,000 rial resistance, this time backed by ounce and free-market dollar, not bubble198,447 rialsdown0.4%
  10. 5 September 09:02NeutralGanj stuck to the 194,000 rial resistance edge again, but this time it's trading below NAV with a slight discount194,100 rialsup2.2%
  11. 1 September 13:05NeutralThe Ganj fund today touched both the 194,000 support and the thesis invalidation level (189,182 rial), but closed almost unchanged192,361 rialsup0.9%
  12. 1 September 08:58BullishGanj fund set a new record by breaking through the 194,000-rial resistance, and daily volume finally exceeded the average194,400 rialsdown1.0%