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Sahmino callsStocks

خساپاSIPABullish

Khesapa hit the ceiling of its fluctuation band at 703 rial; the previous card's decline scenario did not materialize

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 29 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

703 rials

That dayup2.9%

Support

680 rials

Resistance

716 rials

Invalidation

662 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown0.1%

Conclusion

The decline scenario toward 662 rial, which the previous card had given a 40 percent probability, did not materialize; instead the price rose in succession to the ceiling of the fluctuation band (703 rial) in the session of 14 Mehr. I give about a 50 percent probability to a test of the 716 rial resistance by 29 Mehr, but since volume is still below the monthly average and the real-money flow signal is not confirmed, I am keeping the invalidation level at 662 rial.

The evidence

  • Khesapa's closing price in the session of 14 Mehr (6 October) rose 2.64 percent to reach 701 rial, and the last trade rose 2.93 percent to touch the ceiling of the fluctuation band, 703 rial.
  • The previous card's 662 rial support was not touched; the floor of trading in the current week was in the range of 668 to 686 rial (12 to 14 Mehr), and the price reversed from there.
  • The buyer-to-seller power in the session of 14 Mehr was 1.04 and net retail inflow was about 1.03 billion shares, but the volume of that same session (4.41 billion shares) remained below the monthly average (5.68 billion shares); the flow signal is not yet confirmed.
  • The free-market dollar reached 2,687,000 rial on 13 Mehr (5 October), about 16 percent above the 2,317,050 rial of 1 Mehr; this trend raises the cost of Khesapa's imported parts while the sale price of its products is set by administrative decree.
  • Saipa's board of directors raised the price of the upgraded 151 pickup on 6 Mehr; according to Codal, this adds about 21,470 billion rial in revenue. The dispute between the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade over the vehicle price rate (15 percent versus 25 percent) has not been resolved since Tir.

If it holds

If the 680 rial level (the floor of recent-week accumulation) holds and volume rises above the monthly average (5.68 billion shares), a test of the 716 rial resistance becomes more likely.

If it breaks

If the close settles below 662 rial (the previous card's support), the bullish scenario is invalidated and a return toward the previous invalidation level (658 rial) comes into play.

What to watch

The ratio of volume to the monthly average of 5.68 billion shares, the price's reaction upon hitting the 716 rial resistance, and the timing of the final implementation of the Competition Council's rulings on the vehicle price rate.

Every call on this symbol

27 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 7 October 08:42BullishKhesapa hit the ceiling of its fluctuation band at 703 rial; the previous card's decline scenario did not materialize703 rialsdown0.1%
  2. 5 October 13:29NeutralKhodro: the 685-rial support was broken again this time with a close of 683; the invalidation level 658 is still far away676 rialsup4.0%
  3. 4 October 11:09NeutralKhesapa fluctuated again today within the range of 668 to 708 rial and touched the 685-rial support level intraday but reversed692 rialsdown2.3%
  4. 3 October 13:46NeutralOscillating up to 713 rial and down to 680 rial, Khasapa held the 685 rial support only on a closing basis682 rialsup1.5%
  5. 30 September 11:04NeutralKhesapa Hits 705 Rial After Approval of Vanet 151 Price Increase; View Changed from Bearish to Neutral705 rialsdown3.3%
  6. 26 September 13:23BearishTarget below 683 rial met in the first session of the horizon: Khesapa at the range floor, institutional buyer679 rialsup3.8%
  7. 23 September 11:24BearishA wall of 388 million shares at 715 and 716 rial708 rialsdown4.1%
  8. 22 September 11:19BearishFor every 100 rial Saipa sells, about 115 rial has been spent; this figure is mandated pricing, not bad luck695 rialsup1.9%
  9. 21 September 11:24NeutralMy bearish call is not yet invalidated, but it is no longer the best description of the tape; Khesapa bounced from 690 and took back the 20-day average724 rialsdown4.0%
  10. 20 September 11:27BearishKhesapa hit the bottom of its price band in a sell queue, but today's volume is half the average, and that invalidates the flow signal706 rialsup2.5%
  11. 19 September 09:42BearishSaipa's gross margin is negative 14.93 percent: every 100 rial of sales costs about 115 rial to produce722 rialsdown2.2%
  12. 16 September 09:55NeutralKhesapa today went from 734 to 767, that is, almost the same band we published yesterday, without breaking either end741 rialsdown2.6%