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Sahmino callsStocks

وتجارتBTEJNeutral

Vetejarat broke above the 923 rial line with a closing price of 934 rial, invalidating the Mehr 1 neutral call

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, to 19 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

942 rials

That dayup3.0%

Support

892 rials

Resistance

978 rials

Invalidation

867 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown4.6%

Conclusion

I remain neutral, but I am moving the invalidation line downward: I put about 55 percent probability that the closing price will not fall below 867 rial (the Shahrivar 31 close) by 19 Mehr. Risk: I am not turning bullish because today's rise came with net retail selling and the P/E premium over the group is high; if institutional buying stops, a return below 923 rial would be fast.

The evidence

  • The Mehr 1 neutral call said the closing price would not register above 923 rial by 19 Mehr; today's closing price on 5 Mehr 1405 came in at 934 rial (up 2.08 percent), and that call is invalidated.
  • The last trade was 942 rial at the top of the price band (at 13:25), but it is still below the 20-day average of 954.5 rial and 6.9 percent below the 52-week high close (1,012 rial, 9 Shahrivar).
  • Net retail flow on 1 Mehr and 4 Mehr was positive (about 794 and 598 million shares), but today it was about negative 1.07 billion shares with a buyer power of 0.89: today's rise was built by institutional buying, and the triple test failed.
  • The board P/E is 8.9 versus 5.32 for the banks group (5 Mehr): Vetejarat trades at a high premium to the group, and amid high inflation, nominal bank profit growth is not necessarily real growth.
  • Banks are the primary transmission channel for sanctions, and today is the anniversary of the return of UN sanctions (5 Mehr 1404). We cannot quantify its effect on bank profit; it sets the discount rate and volatility, not profit.

If it holds

If closes hold above 867 rial, fluctuation between 892 and 978 rial (the 24 Shahrivar close) is the base scenario, and a break above the 20-day average without real buying is not confirmed.

If it breaks

If the closing price registers below 867 rial, this neutral view is invalidated and the Shahrivar low has been broken again.

What to watch

What to watch: the direction of net retail flow, the closing price relative to the 20-day average, alignment or divergence with Vebmellat, and the bank's monthly report on Codal.

Every call on this symbol

26 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 27 September 13:31NeutralVetejarat broke above the 923 rial line with a closing price of 934 rial, invalidating the Mehr 1 neutral call942 rialsdown4.6%
  2. 23 September 12:15NeutralTwo big banks, two ratios: 8.5 and 3.26893 rialsup5.5%
  3. 22 September 13:43BearishThis bank is 51 percent more expensive than its group, and today its board did not have even one buy order866 rialsup3.1%
  4. 20 September 13:53BearishVetejarat's earnings yield is 11.7 percent while the risk-free rate is 41.3 percent; the 901 target was hit and I'm setting the next target at 875 rial900 rialsdown3.8%
  5. 19 September 11:47BearishThe 940-rial Vabtekar decline happened, but Vbmellat and Vbsadr have fallen exactly as much: this is a group move, not Vtejarat921 rialsdown2.3%
  6. 16 September 11:00NeutralPrice landed exactly on the 20-day average, the 971-rial support broke, and the 940-rial invalidation remains untouched949 rialsdown3.0%
  7. 15 September 11:05NeutralYesterday's bearish view turned out wrong: Vtejarat took back 971 rial and reached 988 rial988 rialsdown3.9%
  8. 14 September 11:07BearishVatejarat went below the 958 rial invalidation level in the last two sessions and closed above it; today there is a 3 billion share sell queue960 rialsup2.9%
  9. 9 September 11:00NeutralThe stock's 10.7 percent yield is a quarter of the risk-free rate, and today's supply filled the floor of the range977 rialsdown1.7%
  10. 8 September 13:19NeutralWe lost, and we say so: the close of 1,007 above our cancellation level of 993 held, but the reason for our bearish view got stronger, not weaker1,001 rialsdown2.4%
  11. 7 September 10:53BearishThis call is losing: only 7 rial left until the 993 rial invalidation and we are not moving the level986 rialsup1.5%
  12. 6 September 12:45BearishVetejarat: 11 percent EPS yield against a 40.5 percent risk-free rate; from neutral to bearish954 rialsup3.4%