شبندرPNBANeutral

I stay neutral and apply my rule the same way: today resistance was rejected only by the last trade, not by the closing price, and in that case I do not turn bullish; just as I turn bullish when the closing price rejects it. I move the invalidation level from 13,920 to 14,010 rial and put the probability at about 55 percent that no close below it will be recorded by the end of the horizon. Risk: Shebandar sits on the Strait of Hormuz, and any change there shifts both feedstock and product exports.

• The near-term risk I wrote yesterday, the sell queue not clearing, was resolved today: the board is balanced, 179,029 shares of demand at 14,990 and 12,500 shares of supply at 15,000 rial. The price as of 12:15 on 1 Mehr 1405 is 15,060 rial, up 2.31 percent.
• But our stated resistance was 15,140 rial, and today's high of 15,160 rial only broke it intraday; the closing price of 15,000 rial stayed below it. The same rule I applied today for Fuladi gives a different answer here.
• Flow does not confirm either: net retail at negative 43,739,855 shares, buyer strength 0.95, and volume of 331,984,514 shares, meaning 83 percent of the monthly average. All three legs of our condition are rejected.
• And the comparison with Shepna the file calls for: today Shepna is locked at the range ceiling with a buy queue, while Shebandar only touched the ceiling; but Shebandar at a ratio of 5.87 is below the group's 6.15, and Shepna at 6.99 is above it (both as of 1 Mehr 1405).
• Being cheaper is not accidental: refinery complexity and feedstock mix are not the same, and for Shebandar the discount on high-sulfur fuel oil carries more weight. Brent was also down 9.1 percent on the week, which makes feedstock cheaper and makes the spread matter more than the Brent level.