Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) Total IndexTEDPIXBullish

I am keeping the short term bullish view: the 7,594,952 point invalidation level is untouched and the index set a fresh record today, but since it is close to the psychological 8,000,000 point resistance and real money flow is not yet a buyer, I put roughly a 45% probability on the index clearing that resistance within this horizon, and about 30% on a pullback below the 7,790,017 point support.

• TEDPIX is up 2.39% intraday today to 7,976,224 points, a fresh record on top of yesterday's record of 7,790,017 points; it is now less than 0.3% from the 8,000,000 point resistance.
• Unlike the last card, where the headline index outran the equal weight index, today the equal weight index also rose 2.24% to 2,112,003 points; this rally is broader than a few large caps.
• On the last completed session, market wide net individual money flow was negative by about 9.2 billion rials, matched by an equal net institutional buy; the recent rally is not yet confirmed by real money buying.
• The risk free rate has reached 42.29%, with a 30 day average of 41.73%; this competing return for equities remains high and should be read alongside the index's nominal gain.
• TEDPIX is up about 172% over the past year, while the consumer price index rose about 82% over a similar span; unlike some earlier readings, the current gain also carries a partly positive real return.