Skip to main content
Up to 53% offSee the plans

Sahmino callsStocks

سصوفیSSOFNeutral

Sosoufi's buy queue stood 1.5 percent below the invalidation line; the bearish call didn't reach its target and is going neutral

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, to around 14 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

165,200 rials

That dayup3.0%

Support

160,400 rials

Invalidation

167,500 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup1.3%

Conclusion

The bearish call from 29 Shahrivar neither hit its target nor was invalidated; with six sessions left to the end of the horizon, I'm moving it to neutral and keeping the invalidation line at 167,500 rial: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price above it is registered by 14 Mehr. Risk: the gap is only 1.5 percent and one more buy-queue session is enough to invalidate this call.

The evidence

  • Sosoufi's closing price today, 5 Mehr 1405, was 165,100 rial (up 2.93 percent), and the last trade was 165,200 rial at the top of the price band, with 204 buyers in the queue. The invalidation line of 167,500 rial is about 1.5 percent higher.
  • The 154,500 rial target from the 29 Shahrivar card was not reached: the lowest closing price since that day was 160,400 rial (4 Mehr). The price is still below the 20-day average of 169,120 rial.
  • Today's volume, about 1.7 million shares, is half the monthly average of 3.4 million shares. Buyer strength is 1.5, but net retail flow is negative 330 thousand shares: the triple test failed, and the buy queue has no volume backing.
  • The board P/E is 5.34 versus 7.09 for the cement group (5 Mehr); this relative cheapness is what has prevented a decline. We do not have Iran Mercantile Exchange cement and clinker prices in our data, and we make no claim about the alleged sale price.
  • Difference from Sekhouz: Sosoufi's market is the northwest and exports to northwestern neighbors, so the free-market dollar (2,344,700 rial, 5 Mehr, intraday) reaches revenue via the export-sales channel; the region's winter is also the season of declining construction and gas restrictions.

If it holds

If closing prices stay below 167,500 rial, fluctuation between 160,400 and 167,500 rial is the base-case scenario, and today's queue remains a low-volume session.

If it breaks

If a closing price above 167,500 rial is registered, this view is invalidated, and a return to the 20-day average (169,120 rial) and higher becomes more likely.

What to watch

What to watch: buy-queue volume against the monthly average, the direction of net retail flow, the Shahrivar monthly activity report on Codal, and any news of winter gas quotas for northwestern industries.

Every call on this symbol

20 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 27 September 13:32NeutralSosoufi's buy queue stood 1.5 percent below the invalidation line; the bearish call didn't reach its target and is going neutral165,200 rialsup1.3%
  2. 20 September 14:01BearishThe call was decided this very session as the 166,600 line broke; now I'm writing bearish and factoring in the northwest's winter too162,700 rialsup1.5%
  3. 19 September 11:54NeutralThe cancel line that the previous card left untouched is now 0.36 percent away from the price, and this very session will settle the matter167,200 rialsdown2.7%
  4. 16 September 11:04NeutralSupport at 171,700 broke but the book reversed: selling happened on the board, not in the queue170,400 rialsdown1.9%
  5. 12 September 11:43NeutralThe zero-seller stock we wrote about five days ago is now 3.6 times demand; we are moving from bullish to neutral176,100 rialsdown3.2%
  6. 7 September 11:01BullishSasoufi's supply side is empty today: five levels of demand and zero sellers, on a day the published ceiling of 173,200 rial was rejected176,800 rialsdown0.4%
  7. 6 September 12:52BullishSosufi hit the 172 to 177 thousand rial ceiling for the third time, this time with a buy queue and volume around the average172,000 rialsup2.8%
  8. 5 September 11:47NeutralSasofi took back the morning card's 164,600 rial redemption-cancellation level and reached 167,000 rial; but on volume below average167,000 rialsup3.0%
  9. 5 September 08:35BearishSasofi's 164,600 rial support was lost; today's low stopped exactly at the previous card's cancellation level (161,300 rial)163,400 rialsup2.2%
  10. 2 September 11:04NeutralSesoufi returned from a floor of 161,300 rial back above the 164,600 rial resistance; without volume confirmation, the view changed from bearish to neutral164,800 rialsdown0.8%
  11. 1 September 11:16BearishSasofi broke the 164,600 rial support too and fell to 163,900 rial; bearish view strengthened164,100 rialsup0.4%
  12. 31 August 11:02BearishSasofi broke the 170,900 rial support level and reached the bottom of today's fluctuation range (168,100 rial); today's entire gain was lost168,100 rialsdown2.4%