A softer US personal consumption expenditures reading trims the odds of multiple Fed rate hikes

According to a global markets report published on Monday, 3 August 2026 (12 Mordad 1405), the US personal consumption expenditures price index fell from 4.1% to 3.7% in June, easing the likelihood of multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Markets expect at least one rate hike by the end of the year. The probability of such a decision is priced at 67% for the September meeting and 96% for October. US nonfarm payrolls data due this week could reshape those expectations.

The US Dollar Index fell to the 99 level last week for the first time since 17 June and began Monday at 99.7. The US 30 year Treasury yield stood at 5.24%, down about four basis points, while the 10 year yield was at 4.7%, down five basis points. In the same session gold rose 0.6% to 4,070 dollars an ounce. The Federal Reserve rate path and the dollar index are among the main variables driving global gold prices and, in turn, the domestic Iranian market.