Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
AnalysisZarif's Foreign Affairs Vision and Iran's Markets: Two Scenarios for the Dollar, Gold, and Stocks
In a Foreign Affairs essay, former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argues that West Asia's own states should build the region's security and economic order. Sahmino lays out his case, the serious criticism of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, and the bourse under two scenarios, de-escalation and continued war, with a look at the July 21, 2026 market where the free-market dollar trades near 190,000 tomans.
AnalysisIran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality
The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF projecting a 6.1 percent contraction for 2026, Sahmino measures the multipolar narrative against the numbers (21 July 2026).
AnalysisIran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a temporary US license letting Iran sell oil for dollars.
AnalysisFrom Barter to an "Offshore Rial": Iran Seeks to Formalize Rial Afghani Trade Settlement (Saturday, July 4, 2026)
The head of the Iran Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce says Iran's goal is to turn the traditional rial afghani barter system into a formal banking platform, reducing exporters' reliance on third currencies. Under the latest official Afghan data (November 2024), Afghanistan exported only about $30 million worth of goods to Iran while importing roughly $1.8 billion from it, an imbalance the central bank's new "offshore rial" tool aims to address.
AnalysisUS 60-Day Oil Waiver for Iran: Up to $3.06 Billion in Possible FX Revenue Through August 21, 2026
The US Treasury's General License X, issued June 22, 2026, allows Iran to sell crude oil, petrochemical and petroleum products for US dollars, for the first time in over four decades, through August 21, 2026. Newsweek's analysis puts the potential revenue at up to $3.06 billion over the 60-day window.