Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
What Are Secondary Sanctions; How Do OFAC and the FATF Work?
How secondary sanctions differ from primary sanctions, how OFAC's SDN List and general licenses work, and how the FATF places countries on its increased-monitoring or call-for-action lists: all as predictable calendar events that shape currency-market expectations.
Hemmati Says Central Bank Has Supplied $500 Million in Negotiated-Rate FX to the Parallel Market; Gap With the Free Dollar Still 21 Percent (Thursday, Shahrivar 5, 1405)
Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Thursday, Shahrivar 5, 1405 (August 27, 2026) the bank has supplied $500 million in negotiated-rate FX to the parallel market to curb "fake FX jobs," with more available if needed. Sahmino's board put today's negotiated dollar at 158,039 tomans against a free-market dollar near 200,600 tomans, a gap of about 21 percent.
Dollar, Gold and Coin All Pulled Back Today; Dollar Retreats From a 204,820-Toman Peak to the 200,000-Toman Range (Tuesday, August 25, 2026)
On Tuesday, August 25, 2026, Tehran's free-market dollar retreated to about 200,000 tomans this evening after a two-day surge that had taken it to a peak of 204,820 tomans; global gold, domestic 18-karat gold and the Emami gold coin fell together. A day earlier, Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati had announced $175 million a day in FX supply and a plan to allocate $20 billion to industry by year-end, calling the exchange-rate gap "temporary."
Tehran's Free-Market Dollar Crosses 200,000 Tomans for the First Time Tonight (Sunday, Shahrivar 1, 1405)
Iran's free-market dollar in Tehran crossed 200,000 tomans (2,000,000 rials) tonight, Sunday, Shahrivar 1, 1405 (August 23, 2026), for the first time in at least a month, trading as high as 201,300 tomans; three independent sources (Sahmino, TGJU and Alanchand) confirm the level. That is up about 4 percent from last night's Sahmino-registered rate of 192,700 tomans.
Turkey's High Interest Rate Didn't Save the Lira: What Does That Mean for Iranians?
Turkey's central bank has held its policy rate at 37 percent, yet the lira keeps hitting new lows. This lesson explains the mechanism behind Turkish inflation and monetary policy, and shows how that decline reaches Iranian property purchases, trade, and money transfers.
US Producer Inflation Cooled to 4.7% in July, Down From 5.5% in June, But the 10-Year Treasury Yield Stayed High (Sunday, August 16, 2026)
US producer prices (PPI) rose 4.7% year over year in July, down from 5.5% in June and softer than economists expected; a day earlier, consumer inflation had already come in calmer than feared. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated through Friday, August 14, a gap that keeps the path of the dollar and global gold, and from there Tehran's coin and gold prices, unsettled.
The UAE Dirham's Fixed Rate: Iran's Import Gateway and Remittance Corridor to Dubai
For nearly three decades the UAE dirham has held an almost fixed rate against the US dollar. That stability has made Dubai the main gateway for Iran's imports and its leading currency remittance corridor. This lesson covers the mechanism behind that link, the gap between Iran's official and free-market dirham rates, and Dubai's role in Iran's trade.
Every Day in Baghdad, an Auction Is Held: How Its Dollars Reach Tehran's FX Market
Iraq's central bank sells dollars for dinars to licensed banks and exchange houses every business day. This lesson explains how that auction works, why its official rate differs from Baghdad's free-market rate, and how that gap reaches Tehran's currency market.
The Fed's Chain to the Toman: How One Decision in Washington Reaches Tehran's Free Dollar and Coin
This lesson builds the full chain: how the Fed's interest rate moves the Dollar Index, how the Dollar Index moves the global gold ounce, and how that ounce, together with Tehran's free market dollar rate, sets Iran's gold and coin prices. With a labelled hypothetical and dated, sourced real figures.
The Dollar Index (DXY): One Number That Usually Sends Gold the Other Way
Learn what the six currencies behind the Dollar Index (DXY) are, what it means when it rises or falls, why it tends to move opposite to gold, and how that link reaches gold and coin prices in Iran.
Turkish Lira Hits Fresh Record Low of 47.76 Against the Dollar on Wednesday; Turkey's Central Bank Releases Its Quarterly Inflation Report Tomorrow
The Turkish lira touched a fresh all-time low against the US dollar on Wednesday evening, August 12, 2026, crossing 47.75, even as annual inflation eased for a fourth straight month. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) releases its quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow, Thursday, August 13, a release that has historically moved the lira. The move matters for Iran's market too, since much of Iran's overland import trade and outbound travel runs through Turkey.
Tehran Dollar Jumps 1.19 Percent Tuesday, Ending a Five-Day Slide, to Reach 187,800 Tomans (20 Mordad 1405)
Tehran's free-market dollar, which fell for five straight sessions from Wednesday, August 5 to Monday, August 10, 2026, its longest losing streak of the year, to a one-month low, jumped about 1.19 percent (2,200 tomans) on Tuesday, August 11 to reach 187,800 tomans. Gold and the Emami coin rose in tandem, while Brent crude jumped nearly 5 percent above $87 as a Strait of Hormuz risk premium returned to markets.
Sanctions Mechanics: Why Moving Money Under Sanctions Costs More
Learn how an ordinary international payment actually moves, which specific link in that chain sanctions cut, why importers and exporters end up routing through costlier alternatives, and how that extra cost eventually shows up in the exchange rate, with one labelled hypothetical example and dated real figures.
Inflation at 83.9 Percent Has Outrun Money Growth of 53.3 Percent; the 30.6 Point Gap the Printing Press Did Not Create (Friday, 31 July 2026)
Iran's broad money reached about 15,581 thousand billion tomans at the end of 1404 (March 2026), growing about 53.3 percent. Yet year-on-year inflation in Tir 1405 (July 2026) stood near 83.9 percent, roughly 30.6 points ahead of money growth. The printing press did not create that gap: velocity, inflation expectations and the nearly 39,600 toman dollar spread on 30 July 2026 did. New money also travels through markets in sequence, not all at once.
What Moves the Dollar? The Four Channels That Set the Exchange Rate
This lesson explains where Iran's dollar rate comes from: the FX supply and demand balance, the rial layer (money supply and inflation), expectations, and political or sanctions shocks. With a hypothetical worked example and a few dated real figures, you will see why the rate can sit still for weeks and then jump in days.
The Ceasefire Nobody Signed: Gold Fell 3.3% and the Dollar 1.8% on a Day the Global Ounce Did Not Move at All (Saturday, 25 July 2026)
On Saturday, 25 July 2026 (3 Mordad 1405), 18 karat gold fell 3.29%, the Emami coin 2.18% and the free market dollar 1.80% in Iran. Yet the global gold ounce did not move at all, because world markets were closed for the weekend. That makes the entire decline a domestic bet on a story no side has officially confirmed: a reported 10 day ceasefire proposal. Sahmino measures the gap between what the market priced and what is actually verified. This analysis is not buy or sell advice.
Zarif's Foreign Affairs Vision and Iran's Markets: Two Scenarios for the Dollar, Gold, and Stocks
In a Foreign Affairs essay, former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argues that West Asia's own states should build the region's security and economic order. Sahmino lays out his case, the serious criticism of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, and the bourse under two scenarios, de-escalation and continued war, with a look at the July 21, 2026 market where the free-market dollar trades near 190,000 tomans.
Iran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality
The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF projecting a 6.1 percent contraction for 2026, Sahmino measures the multipolar narrative against the numbers (21 July 2026).
Iran's Multiple Exchange Rates: Why Is There More Than One Dollar Price?
Learn why one dollar has several prices in Iran: we separate the free-market rate, the Exchange Center rate, and the preferential rate, say who each rate is for, and use a hypothetical worked example plus dated real figures to show what the gap between them means.
Iran's Dollar Crosses 180,000 Tomans, Coin Premium Jumps 6.85%; Why Did Global Gold Fall at the Same Time? (Thursday, July 9, 2026)
Iran's free-market dollar crossed 180,000 tomans early Thursday, July 9, 2026 (18 Tir 1405), reaching 180,195 tomans. The same week, the Emami coin's premium jumped 6.85% to about 7,091,000 tomans, even as global gold fell for a second straight day. The widening gap is a live gauge of domestic fear.
Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire "Over"; Rial Smashes Through 180,000 Toman, Tehran Stock Exchange Sheds 52,000 Points (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Donald Trump told the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." Hours later, on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 (17 Tir 1405), Iran's free-market dollar broke through 180,000 toman and the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index fell 52,012 points (1.9%) to the 2.68 million range. Brent crude jumped about 7% globally.
US Revokes Iran Oil Sales Waiver; Brent Crude Tops $76 After Attacks on Three Tankers in Hormuz (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
The US Treasury revoked Iran's dollar oil sales waiver (General License X) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, hours after an attack on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with a narrower "General License X1." No new sales are authorized, and in-process transactions have until July 17 to settle. Brent crude jumped to $76.04 a barrel in after-hours trading in response.
Iran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a temporary US license letting Iran sell oil for dollars.
From Barter to an "Offshore Rial": Iran Seeks to Formalize Rial Afghani Trade Settlement (Saturday, July 4, 2026)
The head of the Iran Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce says Iran's goal is to turn the traditional rial afghani barter system into a formal banking platform, reducing exporters' reliance on third currencies. Under the latest official Afghan data (November 2024), Afghanistan exported only about $30 million worth of goods to Iran while importing roughly $1.8 billion from it, an imbalance the central bank's new "offshore rial" tool aims to address.
US 60-Day Oil Waiver for Iran: Up to $3.06 Billion in Possible FX Revenue Through August 21, 2026
The US Treasury's General License X, issued June 22, 2026, allows Iran to sell crude oil, petrochemical and petroleum products for US dollars, for the first time in over four decades, through August 21, 2026. Newsweek's analysis puts the potential revenue at up to $3.06 billion over the 60-day window.
