شپدیسPRDZBearish

I'm calling the neutral card lost and turning bearish: I put about 55 percent probability that by 15 Mehr a closing price at or below 12,420 rial will be recorded. The risk is right here: global urea is trending up and the ratio of 6.7 is cheap, so with a 17 percent free float a buy queue could reverse this call in a single session; a close above 13,000 rial invalidates it.

• The invalidation level of the 1 Mehr card, 12,900 rial, was broken: today, 5 Mehr, the symbol opened at the floor of the price band (12,550 rial), and as of 10:50 the last trade was 12,720 and the closing price up to this moment was 12,580 rial.
• On 4 Mehr retail net sold about 287 million shares and institutional was a buyer; today, up to 10:50, retail net is a seller of about 80 million shares and buyer strength is 0.42.
• Price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 versus the group's 9.42 (5 Mehr reading); the stock is cheap, but cheapness hasn't stopped the selling for two sessions.
• Global urea at $457.25 per ton (3 Mehr, Trading Economics), 9.5 percent higher than a month ago; Shepdis's sales rate comes from exactly this, so the drop over these two sessions is not explained by global revenue.
• The cold season is on the way: in winter, the cutoff of petrochemical gas for household consumption lowers urea tonnage every year; this is a calendar risk, not a surprising piece of news.