Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
AnalysisZarif's Foreign Affairs Vision and Iran's Markets: Two Scenarios for the Dollar, Gold, and Stocks
In a Foreign Affairs essay, former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argues that West Asia's own states should build the region's security and economic order. Sahmino lays out his case, the serious criticism of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, and the bourse under two scenarios, de-escalation and continued war, with a look at the July 21, 2026 market where the free-market dollar trades near 190,000 tomans.
AnalysisIran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality
The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF projecting a 6.1 percent contraction for 2026, Sahmino measures the multipolar narrative against the numbers (21 July 2026).
EducationalIran's Multiple Exchange Rates: Why Is There More Than One Dollar Price?
Learn why one dollar has several prices in Iran: we separate the free-market rate, the Exchange Center rate, and the preferential rate, say who each rate is for, and use a hypothetical worked example plus dated real figures to show what the gap between them means.
NewsIran's Dollar Crosses 180,000 Tomans, Coin Premium Jumps 6.85%; Why Did Global Gold Fall at the Same Time? (Thursday, July 9, 2026)
Iran's free-market dollar crossed 180,000 tomans early Thursday, July 9, 2026 (18 Tir 1405), reaching 180,195 tomans. The same week, the Emami coin's premium jumped 6.85% to about 7,091,000 tomans, even as global gold fell for a second straight day. The widening gap is a live gauge of domestic fear.
NewsTrump Declares Iran Ceasefire "Over"; Rial Smashes Through 180,000 Toman, Tehran Stock Exchange Sheds 52,000 Points (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Donald Trump told the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." Hours later, on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 (17 Tir 1405), Iran's free-market dollar broke through 180,000 toman and the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index fell 52,012 points (1.9%) to the 2.68 million range. Brent crude jumped about 7% globally.
NewsUS Revokes Iran Oil Sales Waiver; Brent Crude Tops $76 After Attacks on Three Tankers in Hormuz (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
The US Treasury revoked Iran's dollar oil sales waiver (General License X) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, hours after an attack on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with a narrower "General License X1." No new sales are authorized, and in-process transactions have until July 17 to settle. Brent crude jumped to $76.04 a barrel in after-hours trading in response.
AnalysisIran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a temporary US license letting Iran sell oil for dollars.