Iran Aluminium (ALIR) Cuts 2026-27 Sales Forecast 4.6%, but Needs 70.8 Trillion Rials a Month for the Rest of the Year, Below October's 104.3 Trillion (31 October 2026)

Iran Aluminium (ALIR) cut its forecast for the Iranian fiscal year ending 20 March 2027 from 947.558 trillion to 904.226 trillion rials in a Codal disclosure issued at 16:56 Tehran time on Saturday, 31 October 2026, after the equity session. The reduction is 43.332 trillion rials, or 4.6%. An electrical fault on aluminium smelting line 6 and damaged cells are the company's reported reason. The arithmetic of the remaining months suggests the revenue target is still achievable, but it exposes a separate weakness in the projected margin.

Background

ALIR is the ticker of Iran Aluminium, a Tehran-listed basic-metals share on the exchange's first market with a 21% free float on the 31 October profile. In letter 1626150 the company says its full-year projected sales volume falls from 164,868 to 157,913 tonnes and forecast cost of sales from 507.388 to 485.294 trillion rials. It estimates running costs of idling damaged cells at 2.300 trillion rials and restart funds at 3.600 trillion rials, to be financed internally. Together, 5.900 trillion rials equals approximately 3.2% of its first-half standalone net profit. These are company estimates, not realised spending, and the disclosure is classed in group B.

The starting point is the unaudited standalone six months to 22 September 2026, filing 1612233. Revenue was 446.006 trillion rials versus a restated 150.738 trillion a year earlier; net profit was 183.254 trillion versus 14.042 trillion, roughly thirteen times as much. Operating cash flow was positive 72.471 trillion rials compared with negative 28.082 trillion in the comparative half-year. Income and cash both come from the same standalone basis.

Numbers behind the revision

• Full-year sales forecast: 904.226 trillion rials, down from 947.558 trillion rials (Codal, 31 October 2026). Forecast gross profit, calculated as forecast sales less forecast costs, falls from 440.170 to 418.932 trillion rials, about 4.8% lower.
• October monthly revenue: 104.317 trillion rials. Revenue in the seven months through 22 October 2026 was 550.180 trillion, versus 185.049 trillion in the year-earlier comparable seven months, about 2.97 times as much (monthly filing 1623020).
• The five remaining months to March 2027 require 904.226 minus 550.180 = 354.046 trillion rials in sales, or 70.809 trillion per month, which is 32.1% below October and 9.9% below the seven-month monthly average of 78.597 trillion.
• The volume equation requires 157,913 minus 101,533 tonnes already sold, or 11,276 tonnes a month; October volume was 17,165 tonnes across domestic and export products.
• The 31 October closing-price reading at 17:35 Tehran time was 17,480 rials, down from 17,860 rials on 28 October; the venue can revise that session's figures until about 22:00. Exchange-based trailing earnings per share was 4,099 rials, so price to earnings was 4.26 times against 11.16 for the basic-metals sector on the 31 October profile.
• The traded 52-week high of 19,000 rials dates to 27 October. At the 17:35 reading the share was 8% below that high.

Drivers

Monthly pace: October sales exceeded the first half's average of 74.334 trillion rials a month by about 40%. If the company holds to its latest full-year projection, monthly sales could run about 32% below October's figure and still meet it. The test is the November monthly report: October may have been unusually strong and should not be extrapolated.

The tighter margin is the real tension: Subtract the filed first half from the revised full-year forecast and the second half implies sales of 458.220 trillion rials and cost of sales of 272.185 trillion, leaving gross profit of 186.035 trillion. That is 20.1% below the first-half gross profit of 232.897 trillion, while gross margin falls from about 52.2% to 40.6%. The earlier forecast already implied 207.273 trillion rials in second-half gross profit; the 31 October revision removes another 10.2%. This calculation treats the company forecast and the standalone statements as the same full-year accounting basis, and the disclosure does not explain the sources of the projected cost increase.

Market pressure predates the disclosure: The 31 October share opened at 18,130 rials and touched the 17,330-rial floor. The 17:29 board showed about 10.9 million shares queued for sale at the floor. Individuals net sold around 10.1 million shares that session, an estimated net value of about 177 billion rials, while institutions bought the offsetting quantity. Counting that session, individuals have been net sellers in three sessions since 27 October, about 466 billion rials combined. Because the company disclosed the revision after the bell, Sunday, 1 November, is the first session that can price this particular letter.

Cash confirmation: Operating cash flow for the six months ended 22 September represented 39.5% of net profit. It improved from the negative comparative period, but most reported profit was not yet matched by operating cash receipts.

The Sahmino desk stance on ALIR was watch on 28 October with neither target nor invalidation. Two of its earlier buy stances, on 3 and 4 October, reached their targets, while two in September were invalidated. Across 2,476 settled stances in the desk record, 1,141 reached the target, 1,174 were invalidated and 161 expired. That record is not a probability for this share.

Outlook

The 1 November opening and whether the floor queue clears will be the first market test. The second is November sales against the 70.809-trillion-rial required monthly pace, and the third is the date at which the company reports its damaged cells back in service. An exchange P/E of 4.26 against a sector 11.16 is a reason to examine the share, not evidence that the forecast margin will recover.

Conclusion

A 4.6% sales-forecast cut does not by itself make ALIR's low P/E a value trap, but the revised projection implies a second-half gross margin of 40.6%, against 52.2% in the first half. This is Sahmino's own reading, not a desk buy call: ALIR stays above 16,270 rials and closes its 8% gap to the 19,000-rial high, provided monthly sales stay at or above 70.809 trillion rials. The horizon is the November monthly report, and the reading is invalidated by a close below 16,270 rials. The price of 17,480 rials is 7.4% above that invalidation. The reading was formed on Saturday, 31 October 2026, using the 17:35 price reading.

What to follow

• The 1 November opening and the floor queue.
• The November activity letter against the required 70.809-trillion-rial monthly sales pace.
• Company updates on restarting the cells on line 6.
• Individual buyer and seller flows on the ALIR symbol page in Sahmino.

To compare for yourself, run the same filter in the Sahmino screener: price-to-sector-P/E below 0.8, year-over-year profit growth above 35%, positive trailing operating cash flow and gross margin above 20%. In the 31 October nightly reading 79 of 2,134 equities met all four filters; ALIR carried a Sahmino factor score of 75 and sits near the top of the returned list. The screen does not yet reflect the after-market forecast revision.

Related context: Mobarakeh Steel's retail flow and Sahmino call and FSAZ's valuation versus its sector.