Lead
Abdolnasser Hemmati, governor of Iran's central bank, said last week that the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and announced that a first $2 billion phase of industrial foreign currency allocation began Saturday, July 4, 2026 (13 Tir 1405). He stressed in the same remarks that the central bank has no intention of reviving the "preferential exchange rate" (arz-e tarjihi) mechanism (per EcoIran, Taadol, and Mehr News Agency).
Background
The preferential exchange rate was a multi-tiered rate, set below the open market, that the government allocated from 2018 (1397) for imports of essential goods and medicine; because of its large gap with the open-market rate, the mechanism became notorious for large-scale rent-seeking and goods diversion, and was gradually restricted and merged in later years. Hemmati's emphasis today on not returning to it responds to renewed pressure after the open-market dollar jumped nearly 9% in a single week, June 27 to July 1 (from 161,500 to about 176,000 tomans, per Sahmino's Market Pulse). At the same time, Sahmino had previously reported that the US Treasury's General License X, issued June 22, 2026, permitted Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum product sales for the first time in over four decades, through August 21, 2026, potentially generating up to $3.06 billion in foreign currency revenue; part of the central bank's new reserve buildup is attributed to that license.
Key figures
| Item | Figure | Date and source |
|---|
| Central bank FX reserve increase (since the war began) | $4.5 billion | Hemmati's announcement; around June 30, 2026 (EcoIran, Taadol) |
| First phase of industrial FX allocation | $2 billion | Began Saturday, July 4, 2026 (EcoIran, Mehr News) |
| Potential FX revenue ceiling from oil license X | Up to $3.06 billion | Through August 21, 2026 (Sahmino's earlier report, July 3) |
| Open-market dollar's one-week rise (June 27 to July 1) | About 9% (161,500 to 176,000 tomans) | Sahmino Market Pulse, June 27 |
| Open-market dollar (latest recorded rate) | About 175,600 tomans | Sunday evening, July 5, 2026 (Shargh, Tejaratnews) |
Drivers
Two factors together have given the central bank more room for this decision. First, partial relief from oil sanctions through General License X, which for the first time in over four decades allows a more formal and transparent channel for converting oil revenue into dollars. Second, concern about repeating the inflationary cycle of 2018 to 2021, when the gap between the preferential rate and the open-market rate fueled tens of thousands of billions of tomans in rent-seeking. The first phase's priority, according to Hemmati, is essential goods, medicine, medical equipment, and raw materials essential to production, not a separate exchange rate for those items; officials describe this distinction as the main safeguard against repeating past rent-seeking.
Outlook
Sahmino offers no forecast or recommendation on how this decision will affect the future path of the open-market dollar or inflation. What the available data show is that the new volume of industrial FX allocation, alongside the reserve buildup, gives the central bank more tools to manage import-cost pressure; its real effect on final goods prices can only be assessed once inflation data for the coming months is published.
What to watch
Worth following in the coming weeks: the pace of subsequent phases of industrial FX allocation after the first $2 billion tranche, Iran's consumer inflation report for the month of Tir (which will show this policy's effect), and how industrial stocks dependent on imported raw materials react when the Tehran Stock Exchange reopens tomorrow, Tuesday, July 7. The US June consumer inflation report, due July 14 (23 Tir), could also affect the dollar's global direction and, by extension, the cost of Iran's imports.
Disclaimer
This report is for market education and information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures are dated and may change; verify figures against official, current sources before making any financial decision.
