A week that had produced a seventh straight weekly gain for Tehran's benchmark stock index turned abruptly on Wednesday evening, 17 Tir (July 8, 2026), when US President Donald Trump, speaking on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara, declared the ceasefire and interim agreement with Iran "over." The free-market dollar, which had traded around 178,595 toman on Tuesday, 16 Tir (July 7), broke through the 180,000-toman channel before dawn on Thursday, 18 Tir (July 9), reaching 180,195 toman, a jump of 3,510 toman in a single day. At the same time, Tehran's TEDPIX index fell 24,741 points (0.47 percent) in Wednesday's session, and Brent crude jumped more than 5 percent to above $78 a barrel. The Tehran Stock Exchange is closed today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday) for the weekend and reopens Saturday, 20 Tir (July 11), against the backdrop of these developments.
Today at a glance
| Free-market dollar | 180,195 toman | as of dawn Thursday, 18 Tir |
| Official "agreed" rate (Exchange Center) | 148,549 toman (sell) | as of Wednesday close, 17 Tir |
| 18-karat gold (per gram) | 17,883,000 toman | as of dawn Thursday, 18 Tir |
| Emami coin | 181,510,000 toman | as of Wednesday close, 17 Tir |
| Emami coin premium | about 7,091,000 toman | week ending 18 Tir |
| TEDPIX (Tehran benchmark index) | 5,286,783 points (down 24,741) | Wednesday close, 17 Tir |
| Bitcoin | about $62,300 | Thursday, 18 Tir |
| Brent crude | $78.02 | Wednesday, 17 Tir |
Today's headlines
- Trump, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, called the ceasefire and interim agreement with Iran "over" and described further negotiation as "a waste of time" (per international media including the Associated Press and Al Jazeera, Wednesday, 17 Tir).
- The US Treasury revoked a license that had permitted limited Iranian oil sales through August 21, calling recent actions in the Strait of Hormuz "wholly unacceptable" (per Axios and Politico, Tuesday, 16 Tir).
- A tanker was struck by a projectile near Limah, Oman, and caught fire, according to UKMTO; Reuters sources identified it as a Qatari LNG carrier, with the crew reported safe (Tuesday, 16 Tir).
- Iran's Competition Council said the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade's unilateral 15 percent factory-price increase for automakers was insufficient, and referred the discrepancy to oversight bodies (Competition Council session 758, Wednesday, 17 Tir).
- Seven OPEC+ voluntary-cut members (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) agreed at a Sunday, July 5 (14 Tir) meeting to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August.
Currency
The free-market dollar moved steadily higher through the week: from about 175,000 toman on Sunday, 14 Tir (July 5), to 178,595 toman on Wednesday, 17 Tir (July 8), and finally through the 180,000-toman channel before dawn Thursday at 180,195 toman (source: TGJU). The free-market euro traded around 205,490 toman over the same period, up about 2.35 percent on the week. Meanwhile, the official "agreed" (touafighi) rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center (ICE) stood at 148,549 toman to sell and 147,212 toman to buy as of Wednesday's close, 17 Tir; the gap between the free-market and official rates has widened to about 31,700 toman (nearly 21 percent), one of the widest spreads in recent months. The jump coincided with the ceasefire collapse announcement and escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz; no new FX-policy statement from the Central Bank of Iran on these developments had been published as of this report.
Gold & Coin
18-karat gold per gram reached 17,883,000 toman before dawn Thursday, up about 483,000 toman (2.4 percent) from the prior week; a mesghal (4.3318g) traded around 79,173,000 toman. The Emami coin closed Wednesday, 17 Tir, at 181,510,000 toman, up from 179,480,000 toman Tuesday and 177,990,000 toman Monday. The half coin traded around 93,910,000 toman and the quarter coin around 54,300,000 toman. The Emami coin premium rose to about 7,091,000 toman, up roughly 6.85 percent from the prior week's 6,636,000 toman and more than double its level a month ago (source: TGJU). Notably, even as domestic gold and coin prices rose, international spot gold (XAU) was falling: spot gold slipped about 0.9 percent to $4,068 on Wednesday and extended its decline to below $4,100 on Thursday, its second straight down session, meaning the domestic gold and coin rally has been driven mainly by the rial's slide rather than a global gold rally.
Stocks
The week ending 17 Tir brought a sharp reversal on the Tehran Stock Exchange. On Tuesday, 16 Tir (July 7), TEDPIX jumped about 124,000 points (nearly 2 percent) to a record 5,311,528, with 94 percent of symbols closing higher. But as the ceasefire-collapse announcement and escalating Hormuz tension broke late Wednesday, sentiment reversed: TEDPIX fell 24,741 points (0.47 percent) to close at 5,286,783, the equal-weight index fell 5,419 points (0.39 percent), and only about 18 percent of symbols closed positive. Fars and Fameli (NICICO) were the largest negative contributors to the index, and heavily traded symbols including Shepna, Bank Mellat (Vabmellat), Iran Khodro, Shabandar and Fameli all closed lower. Even so, over the full week TEDPIX posted its seventh consecutive weekly gain (roughly half a percent), and the equal-weight index rose nearly 1.8 percent; base metals and petrochemical groups were at the center of liquidity and market attention. The exchange is closed today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday) and reopens Saturday, 20 Tir (July 11), against the backdrop of continued regional tension.
Crypto
Global crypto markets were not spared the Iran-US escalation. Bitcoin, which traded above $64,000 on Tuesday, retreated to about $61,900 (down 2.2 percent overnight) after news of continued US strikes and the ceasefire-collapse announcement, and was trading around $62,300 on Thursday (source: CoinDesk). Ethereum stood around $1,732, down about 1.5 percent on the day and in "extreme fear" territory by sentiment-index readings. The Tether-toman rate fluctuated between roughly 179,000 and 183,000 toman over the same period amid the sharp dollar move (sources: TGJU and domestic exchanges), a figure that directly embeds the free-market dollar rate. Separately, US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a ten-day outflow streak with a net inflow of $221.7 million on Friday, 12 Tir (July 3), though year-to-date net outflows still stand at $5.4 billion; a US congressional committee hearing on the CLARITY Act on 26 Tir (July 17) is a notable event to watch.
Steel
In the latest recorded rebar market snapshot (13 Tir, before this week's escalation), Nishabur 16mm rebar traded around 60,092 toman per kilogram, Ghaem Razi 12mm around 59,633 toman, Arian Steel 10mm around 64,128 toman, and Novin Matin 10mm (plain) around 65,688 toman; the market that day was described as calmer than in prior tense weeks, with brand-by-brand pricing. In one recent Iran Mercantile Exchange offering session, about 23,225 tonnes of bloom, 4,035 tonnes of rebar, 1,720 tonnes of sheet and 552 tonnes of beam changed hands. Given the recent dollar jump, the key driver to watch for the coming week is the FX rate's effect on imported-input pricing and export bloom pricing.
Cars
At Competition Council session 758 (Wednesday, 17 Tir), the council's spokesperson said the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade had unilaterally approved a 15 percent factory-price increase for automakers without coordinating with the Consumer and Producer Protection Organization, even though a justified figure based on inflation and the exchange rate had been estimated at close to 25 percent; the council referred this deviation from "Directive 543" to oversight bodies. In the free market, the gap between factory and market prices (market margin) has narrowed somewhat with the factory-price increase but remains open; for example, the Dena Plus Automatic, which traded around 2,615 billion toman in early Tir, rose to about 2,690 billion toman by 13 Tir, while the Quick S traded around 1,183 billion toman. Market participants describe demand as still weak, with buyers hesitant amid uncertainty over the future pricing path.
Materials
The cement market has proven more resilient than the sharp currency and metals swings; in the latest recorded report (6 Tir), bagged Tehran cement (Type 2) traded around 253,000 toman, Sufian cement (Type 2) around 281,000 toman, and North cement around 240,000 toman per bag, with the overall trend described as relatively stable. Controlled Iran Mercantile Exchange supply and factory energy-use management have been cited as the main reasons for this market's stability in recent weeks, and no clear sign of rising seasonal demand has yet emerged.
Regional & global backdrop
Brent crude jumped more than 5 percent to $78.02 a barrel, and WTI traded around $74.36, driven mainly by the reported tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the revocation of Iran's oil-sale waiver, though Trump's later remarks that he did not expect a return to "full-scale war" pared back some of the initial gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY) held steady at 101.07, up 1.16 percent over the past month. International gold, despite the escalation, came under pressure from the firmer dollar and expectations around the Federal Reserve's rate path (next meeting 6-7 Mordad, corresponding to July 28-29) and slipped to a one-week low near $4,030; Fed minutes showed 9 of 18 committee members favor at least one more rate hike this year. On US equity markets, the Dow Jones fell 576.76 points (1.09 percent) to 52,348, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent on tech-sector strength.
Regionally, China's yuan traded at 6.8038 per dollar, and China's imports of Iranian crude fell to about 654,000 barrels per day in June, with more than 58 million barrels of Iranian crude still sitting offshore without buyers. In the UAE, Dubai's gold-bullion flows have reportedly been affected by recent tensions, with greater reliance on air freight, according to industry sources. In Iraq, the central bank's dollar remittance rate stood at 1,310.5 dinar, against an official budget-benchmark rate of 1,300 dinar and a retail rate near 1,320 dinar, a channel that continues to carry some Iran-linked currency flows. The Turkish lira traded around 46.80 per dollar, and Turkey's central bank held its policy rate at 37 percent for a third consecutive meeting. The Russian ruble stood at 76.29 per dollar, and seven OPEC+ voluntary-cut members agreed at their July 5 (14 Tir) meeting to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August.
What to watch today
- Market reaction to further developments in the Strait of Hormuz and statements from Iranian and US officials during the exchange's closed days (Thursday and Friday).
- The Tehran Stock Exchange's reopening on Saturday, 20 Tir (July 11), and whether Wednesday's selling pressure persists or the seven-week uptrend resumes.
- Any Central Bank of Iran response to the dollar's move through the 180,000-toman channel and the widening gap with the official rate.
- China's second-quarter GDP and June trade data, due 23-24 Tir (July 14-15).
- Follow-up on the car-pricing case now with oversight bodies after the Competition Council's referral.
- The US congressional committee hearing on the CLARITY Act on 26 Tir (July 17) and its potential effect on crypto markets.
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