At 11:12 this morning, Wednesday 7 Mordad 1405 (29 July 2026), the Tehran Stock Exchange board was telling two contradictory stories. The headline index stood at 5,076,838 points, that is 32,166 points (0.63%) below yesterday's close; yet at the very same second the equal-weight index read 1,431,831 points, 5,225 points (0.37%) above yesterday. A full percentage point apart, in opposite directions. This morning in this same column we asked what the overnight oil jump would do to the five-session flow of money into equities; the half-way point has answered: money has not left the market, it has left the large caps.
Mid-session snapshot
| Market | Latest | Change | Time |
|---|
| TSE headline index | 5,076,838 pts | −32,166 (0.63%) | 7 Mordad, 11:12 |
| Equal-weight index | 1,431,831 pts | +5,225 (0.37%) | 7 Mordad, 11:12 |
| Iran Farabourse index | 40,901 pts | +39 (0.1%) | 7 Mordad, 10:58 |
| Total market value traded | 213,916 bn rial | session to date | 7 Mordad, 11:12 |
| Brent crude | $87.13 | +3.25 (3.88%) | 7 Mordad, 10:57 |
| Spot gold | $4,044.98 | +17.58 (0.44%) | 7 Mordad, 10:59 |
| 18k exchange-traded gold (ask) | 19,762,100 toman | no material change | 7 Mordad, 10:59 |
| Exchange Center dollar remittance (ask) | 152,427 toman | +331 (0.22%) | 7 Mordad, 8:02 |
| Bitcoin | $64,471 | +551 (0.86%) | 7 Mordad, 10:59 |
Today's headlines
- By 11:12 today the equity market had recorded more than 434,000 trades worth 213,916 billion rial on a volume of 46.2 billion shares, with the market state listed as "open" at that moment (live data from the Tehran Securities Exchange Technology Management Company).
- Per the daily Javan (7 Mordad), the twelfth gold bullion auction of this year sold 25 kilograms for 608 billion toman, taking total bullion traded in 1405 to 624 kilograms worth more than 15.6 trillion toman; each bar went for roughly 24 billion toman.
- The Federal Reserve rate decision lands tonight at 21:30 Tehran time (14:00 US Eastern), with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference half an hour later; economists polled by FactSet expect a hold in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, which would be the fifth consecutive meeting without a change.
- Per Eghtesad Online, the governor of the Central Bank, in a session with members of parliament's industries and mines committee, ordered serious measures on foreign-exchange policy to ease FX supply for industry.
- Per Donya-e-Eqtesad (published the evening of 6 Mordad), market desks saw buyers likely keeping the upper hand today and wrote that absent any special development the odds favoured continued growth; the mid-session board has moved against that expectation, at least on the headline index.
Stocks: one market, two numbers, two stories
The headline index and the equal-weight index measure the same market, but on two different scales. The headline index weights each symbol by its market value, so a handful of giants can move the whole number. The equal-weight index gives every symbol the same weight, so it shows the market's breadth rather than its height. When the two move against each other in a single session, it almost always means one thing: the majority of symbols are going one way and a heavy-weight minority is going the other.
Today the heavy-weight minority is down. As of 11:12 the headline index was 0.63% negative and the equal-weight 0.37% positive, and the Farabourse index was also up 0.1% at 40,901 points (10:58). The Farabourse, whose composition sits closer to small and mid-sized companies, is lined up with the equal-weight index; that is, two independent gauges of market breadth are both green. That picture is not consistent with broad shareholder selling; it is consistent with a rotation in portfolio composition.
One structural point matters today and is rarely mentioned: part of the market's heaviest weight is not on the board at all. The symbol for National Iranian Copper is in a "banned, halted" state today, its last recorded trade dating to 29 Tir at 2,002 toman, and Mobarakeh Steel has likewise gone months without reopening. When two of the index's largest weights are not trading, the headline index's movement depends on a smaller set of large caps and its swings become more misleading relative to the market's true breadth. That is precisely what the board is showing today.
So which number should you believe? Both, but for two different questions. If you are asking "what did the total value of the market do today", the answer is the headline index and the answer is negative. If you are asking "what did the average share do today", the answer is the equal-weight index and the answer is positive. Newspaper headlines usually take the first; most retail investors' portfolios look more like the second. The live index board updates on the TSE headline index page.
For scale, the total value traded across the market had reached 213,916 billion rial by 11:12, on more than 434,000 trades and a volume of 46.2 billion shares. The session closes at 12:30 and these figures will rise until then; the important point is that this drop in the headline index did not happen on thin trading.
Gold and coin: the ounce up, the domestic market down
The second divergence today is in gold, and its direction is the reverse of what you would expect. Spot gold was up 0.44% at $4,044.98 as of 10:59, roughly $21 above the $4,023 recorded this same morning. But the domestic market did not follow: 18-karat exchange-traded gold at the Exchange Center was effectively flat at 19,762,100 toman as of 10:59, and Eco Iran reported today's open-market 18-karat gold at 18,292,700 toman and the Emami coin at 183,200,000 toman, both below yesterday's closing rates (18,341,300 toman and 183,995,000 toman respectively).
The likely explanation is what began yesterday: auction supply. The twelfth bullion auction of the year put 25 kilograms into the market and, per the daily Javan, brought total bullion offered in 1405 to 624 kilograms worth more than 15.6 trillion toman. When fresh physical supply enters the market, its effect is usually still visible a session later, and today the domestic market has resisted a more expensive ounce. We walk through how these auctions work step by step in our lesson on the Exchange Center's coin and bullion auctions. Live rates are on the gold price page.
Currency: the official side is calm
On the official side of the market, the Exchange Center's dollar remittance ask rose 0.22% to 152,427 toman this morning (8:02), with the bid at 151,055 toman. That is, the official side is again moving in small, predictable steps today, whereas yesterday the open market jumped 1.17% and crossed 190,000 toman for the first time. Today's policy news came from the same side: per Eghtesad Online, the governor of the Central Bank has ordered serious measures on foreign-exchange policy to ease FX supply for industry. The effect of such orders usually shows up not in tomorrow's rate but in the allocation volumes of the following weeks. The currency board is on the currency price page.
Crypto: out of last night's standstill
Unlike this morning, when the crypto market was effectively flat, Bitcoin was up 0.86% at $64,471 as of 10:59, roughly $689 above this morning's $63,782. The move is small and should not be over-read ahead of tonight's Federal Reserve announcement; but its direction matches global gold, and both suggest the global market has turned slightly toward risk today.
Iron and steel
The steel board is quiet today. Arian Foulad A3 10mm rebar at the factory gate is recorded at 69,550 toman per kilogram, the same producer's 12mm rebar at 68,270 toman and 14mm at 68,180 toman (7 Mordad); that is, yesterday's levels with no material change. Globally, hot-rolled coil was at $1,194.11 as of 07:46 today and virtually unchanged. The point worth watching is that last night's oil jump has not yet passed through to energy costs and global steel prices, and that pass-through usually happens with a lag of several days.
Cars
The correction in the car market continues today. The Peugeot 207 automatic with panoramic roof (TU5P) is recorded at 2.75 billion toman today, whereas the same car traded at 2.775 billion toman yesterday: 25 million toman cheaper in a day. The plain 207 automatic is at 2.55 billion toman and the semi-full manual version at 1.78 billion toman. The open market growing steadily cheaper on days when the dollar has risen still shows that trading stagnation outweighs inflation expectations.
Building materials
Cement prices show no material change today either: Tehran Cement's type 2 Portland in bulk at 4,014,000 toman per tonne and the same producer's 50kg bag at 218,000 toman (7 Mordad). This market is in its third week of trading within the current range with no fresh driver.
Regional and global backdrop
Oil remains the axis today. Brent traded at $87.13 as of 10:57, up 3.88% on yesterday's close, meaning it has held its overnight jump almost in full and has slipped only slightly from the morning peak of $87.61. For Iran that number works through two channels: the government's FX revenue and industry's energy costs.
In the neighbourhood, the dollar against the Turkish lira was at 47.3974 as of 10:59 and essentially unchanged (0.04%); a steady lira means the cost of imports via the Turkey route has not moved today. The dollar against the Chinese yuan was recorded at 6.7713 (10:35), a change of 0.08%, which for Iran's largest trading partner is effectively stability. The euro against the dollar was at 1.1397 (10:59), and the global dollar has not taken a fresh position ahead of tonight's Federal Reserve announcement. Together these three mean the region's currency channels have sent Tehran no fresh news today, and today's story is entirely domestic.
The takeaway
The mid-session verdict is clear: the market did not fall, the weights shifted. The headline index is 0.63% lower but the equal-weight is 0.37% higher and the Farabourse is green too; that combination means selling pressure is concentrated in a few large caps rather than in the body of the market, and on a day when two of the index's heaviest weights are not trading at all. Remember one thing: when the headline and equal-weight indices move against each other, the number that better describes the state of your portfolio is usually the equal-weight one, not the one that makes the headline.
What to watch this afternoon and tonight
- The 12:30 close. If the headline index closes red, the five-session green run halts; if the equal-weight stays green, that halt is a rotation in composition rather than a sell-off.
- The Federal Reserve rate decision, tonight at 21:30 Tehran time, and the press conference half an hour later; spot gold and Bitcoin have both edged up ahead of that number today.
- How domestic gold responds to a $4,045 ounce. If the domestic market lags again tomorrow, the auction supply effect will have lasted more than one session.
- Whether oil holds above $87 in tonight's trading, which will set the board refiners and petrochemicals open on tomorrow morning.
This morning's account, and the question this report answers, are in our Wednesday morning Market Pulse, and dated events are tracked in the Sahmino market calendar.
Every figure in this report carries its own reference date and time, in Tehran time. The equity figures relate to a session in progress and will change by the close. The separation of "what happened" from "why it happened" is deliberate: the analytical sections are readings of published data and are not buy or sell advice.
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