Overall Outlook: Iran Markets in Post-War Transition
Iran's markets enter the morning of Saturday 27 June 2026 (6 Tir 1405) at the close of the first week of Tir month, under the influence of two landmark events: the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (17 June 2026 / 27 Khordad 1405), which formally ended hostilities between Iran and the United States, and OFAC General License X, issued on 22 June 2026 (1 Tir 1405), granting a 60-day authorization for Iranian crude oil, petrochemical, and petroleum product exports (sources: Akin Gump, Al Jazeera, 22–23 June 2026).
The market impact of these two events is visible across asset classes: the free-market dollar rate has fallen roughly 9% from its Khordad peak (around 177,000 tomans) to approximately 161,500 tomans by 6 Tir; Brent crude lost more than 10% in the past week; Iran's car market saw a 75% collapse in transaction volumes; and the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), which was closed for 80 days (9 Esfand 1403 to 29 Ordibehesht 1405) and has since reopened in controlled fashion, recorded a 15.4% weekly gain in the week ending 2 Tir.
Foreign Exchange
The free-market USD/toman rate on the morning of Saturday 6 Tir 1405 was reported at approximately 161,500 tomans (source: Fararu, 6 Tir 1405). During Friday 5 Tir trading the mid-market rate dipped to 160,800 tomans (source: Etemaad Online, 5 Tir 1405).
The free-market euro rate on Friday 5 Tir rose 0.52% to 190,490 tomans (source: ILNA, 5 Tir 1405).
The official "توافقی" (negotiated) rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center (ICE) was last announced on Tuesday 3 Tir 1405 at approximately 130,937 tomans (source: tabdeal.org, 3 Tir 1405). The gap between the free-market and official rates stands at roughly 23%.
The decline in the free-market rate since late Khordad is primarily driven by reduced geopolitical risk premium following the Islamabad MoU and reduced demand for foreign currency as a safe-haven asset. The persistent 23% gap between the two rates reflects ongoing structural barriers to exchange-rate unification.
Gold and Coin
The price of 18-karat gold per gram on Friday 5 Tir 1405 held steady at approximately 16,085,200 tomans (sources: Eghtesad Online, Noandish, 5 Tir 1405). One mithqal of gold was quoted at 70,200,000 tomans, up 0.4% from the previous day (source: ILNA, 5 Tir 1405).
Coin prices at the close of 5 Tir 1405 (sources: Eghtesad Journal, ILNA, Taadol, 5 Tir 1405):
- Full Bahar Azadi coin (Emami design): 164,500,000 tomans
- Full Bahar Azadi coin (old design): 159,000,000 tomans
- Half coin: 85,500,000 tomans
- Quarter coin: 49,500,000 tomans
- Gram coin: 25,000,000 tomans
The coin premium (حباب سکه) on the Emami coin, the difference between market price and its gold melt value, was approximately 5,715,000 tomans, equivalent to roughly 3.5%.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded between $4,007 and $4,027 per ounce on Friday 26 June 2026 (5 Tir 1405), falling roughly 5% on the week (sources: FXStreet, Vantage Markets, 25–26 June 2026). The primary driver of gold's decline was hawkish signaling from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which pushed market-implied probability of a September 2026 rate hike to 63% and a December hike to 80%.
Tehran Stock Exchange
The last TSE trading session before Saturday 6 Tir was Tuesday 2 Tir 1405 (23 June 2026). The exchange was closed on Wednesday 3 Tir (Tasua), Thursday 4 Tir (Ashura), and Friday 5 Tir.
The TEDPIX (total index) closed the 2 Tir session up 88,173 points (1.74%) at 5,160,000 (sources: Eghtesad News, Taadol, Bankaval, 2 Tir 1405). The equal-weight index rose 12,153 points (0.92%) to 1,337,378 (source: Taadol, 2 Tir 1405).
Total transaction value in the 2 Tir session was 30,852 billion tomans, of which approximately 19,800 billion tomans was equity (source: Eghtesad News, 2 Tir 1405). 486 symbols closed positive and 191 closed negative.
Net retail (حقیقی) money flow on 2 Tir was positive at 3,900 billion tomans inflow (source: Taadol, 2 Tir 1405). This reversal was significant after Monday 1 Tir (22 June), when 6,500 billion tomans in retail money had exited the market.
Leading sector groups on 2 Tir: wood products (+2.97%) and transportation, ports and shipping (+2.95%), alongside major banks and petrochemicals (source: Taadol, 2 Tir 1405).
On a weekly basis (the trading week ending 2 Tir 1405), the TEDPIX returned 15.4%. Top weekly sector performers: oil and gas extraction (+25.6%), basic metals (+20.5%), and chemicals (+18.2%). 33 of 38 industry groups closed the week positive (source: Taadol, 2 Tir 1405).
Note: trading data for Saturday 6 Tir (the first session after the three-day break) was not available at the time this report was compiled, in the early morning of 6 Tir.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading in the range of $59,500 to $60,100 in the early morning of Saturday 6 Tir 1405. On Friday 26 June 2026 (5 Tir), the price was approximately $58,980 at 9:15 a.m. ET and had moved to $59,334 by 12:37 p.m. ET; the 24-hour change was roughly -2.7% to -3.0% (sources: Fortune, Yahoo Finance, 26 June 2026). Bitcoin is down 4.47% over the past seven days.
Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,530 at 9:15 a.m. ET on Friday 5 Tir (26 June), down 5.51% (or $106) from the previous day. 24-hour Ethereum trading volume was $15.4 billion (source: Fortune, 26 June 2026).
The Tether (USDT) / toman rate on 6 Tir 1405 was in the range of 166,000 to 167,000 tomans (sources: Arzdigital, Alanchand, TGJU, 6 Tir 1405). This represents roughly a 3% premium over the free-market dollar rate, consistent with typical crypto-exchange spreads in Iran.
The crypto Fear and Greed Index was in "Extreme Fear" territory during this period. Key headwinds include: a sixth consecutive week of US Bitcoin ETF outflows (through 22 June 2026), uncertainty over the timeline for the CLARITY Act in Congress, and capital rotation toward AI equities (sources: Fortune, Yahoo Finance, June 2026).
Steel
Iran's steel market was broadly stable in the week of 2–5 Tir 1405. Mobarakeh Steel (Foolad Mobarakeh), Iran's largest steelmaker, has not yet returned to full capacity following war-related damage in early Esfand 1403 (February 2026), keeping supply constrained.
Domestic steel market prices, 2–5 Tir 1405:
- Rebar: 57,910 to 71,820 tomans/kg (18mm Abarkuh mill cheapest; 12mm Zobahan Isfahan most expensive)
- I-beam IPE14: 69,725 to 86,220 tomans/kg
- I-beam IPE20: approximately 79,358 tomans/kg
- Galvanized sheet: 155,640 to 195,450 tomans/kg (as of 5 Tir)
- Black sheet: 78,180 to 124,910 tomans/kg
The roughly 11% decline in the free-market dollar rate since the Farvardin peak has been the primary downward pressure on domestic steel prices in Tir. Supply constraints from the Mobarakeh shutdown have prevented a steeper fall.
Automobile Market
Iran's free-market car prices fell sharply in the first week of Tir 1405. According to Rokna (2 Tir 1405), dealership transaction volumes were down roughly 75% week on week, placing the market in "transactional recession." The three main drivers: reduced inflation expectations following the Islamabad MoU, the falling free-market dollar rate, and buyer resistance at current price levels.
Free-market prices, 1–3 Tir 1405 (sources: Noandish, Andishemoaser, Shargh, Eghtesad Online):
- Peugeot 207 Automatic (Panorama): approximately 2,370,000,000 tomans (1 Tir)
- Dena Plus MT6 (steel wheels): approximately 2,080,000,000 tomans (1 Tir)
- Shahin GL Automatic: approximately 1,945,000,000 tomans (2 Tir)
- Quick (Koik) S: approximately 1,280,000,000 to 1,320,000,000 tomans
Iran Khodro raised its factory prices for certain models effective 1 Tir 1405, but this revision has not yet been absorbed into free-market transaction prices, which continued to fall. Precise market data for Saturday 6 Tir was not available at the time of this report.
In the Chinese-import segment, the Haval H6 and MVM X22 continue to trade at a substantial premium above factory list price, but precise free-market figures for these models this week were not available from verifiable sources.
Building Materials
Cement prices in Iran's domestic market at the start of Tir 1405 (sources: Taadol, Tejarat News, 1–2 Tir 1405):
- Tehran Type 2 cement (50 kg bag): 253,000 to 255,000 tomans
- Abyek Type 2 cement (50 kg bag): 255,000 tomans
- Saveh Type 2 cement (50 kg bag): 253,000 tomans
- Sofian Type 2 cement (50 kg bag): approximately 281,000 tomans
Wholesale per-tonne cement prices are estimated at approximately 5,000,000 to 5,620,000 tomans (equivalent to 20 bags).
On the Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME / بورس کالا), Type 2 packaged cement deposit certificates (گواهی سپرده سیمان) are traded in 10- to 100-tonne lots. Specific deposit-certificate prices from early Tir 1405 sessions were not accessible from available sources for this report; real-time IME prices can be found at ime.co.ir.
Two structural factors affect the cement market in Tir 1405: seasonal peak construction demand (Tir through Shahrivar), and restrictive central-bank signaling that is putting pressure on construction project financing (source: Etemaad Online, 1405).
Global Markets
At the close of trading on Friday 5 Tir 1405 (26 June 2026):
Oil: Brent crude fell to approximately $72 per barrel (down roughly $3.50 on the day and more than 10% for the week). WTI fell 3.51% on the day to $69.40 per barrel, the largest weekly decline in a month (source: TradingEconomics, Investing.com, 26 June 2026). Progress in US-Iran peace negotiations and the return of Persian Gulf oil exports to approximately 75% of pre-war levels drove the decline. Tanker throughput at the Strait of Hormuz reached approximately 4.8 million barrels per day (source: CNBC, 24 June 2026).
US equity indices: The S&P 500 fell 0.06% to close at 7,353.15. The Nasdaq fell 0.24% (60.99 points) to 25,297.62, its fifth consecutive losing session (source: TheStreet, 26 June 2026). The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09% to 51,876.11. Rotation out of tech and chip stocks, alongside a reported delay to OpenAI's IPO, pressured the Nasdaq.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Traded in the range of 101.16 to 101.36 (daily change of -0.03% to -0.07%). The dollar continues to draw support from the Fed's hawkish posture (source: Vantage Markets, 26 June 2026).
Federal Reserve policy: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged at the 17 June 2026 meeting but issued strongly hawkish signals. Markets are pricing a 63% probability of a September 2026 rate hike and 80% probability of a December hike (source: FXStreet, June 2026).
OFAC General License X: Valid from 22 June 2026 (1 Tir 1405) through 21 August 2026 (30 Mordad 1405), this 60-day license authorizes sales of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical, and petroleum products and allows direct USD settlement into Iran's central bank account (sources: Akin Gump, BIPC, Al Jazeera, 22–23 June 2026). The license is expected to facilitate the release of an estimated 67 million barrels of stranded Iranian crude in the Persian Gulf.
Summary
Iran's markets are in a post-war transition at the start of Tir 1405. Two main dynamics are taking shape: the gradual strengthening of the toman and easing of inflationary pressure as geopolitical risk subsides; and the gradual restart of industrial capacity (including Mobarakeh Steel) and oil exports, which could substantially increase Iran's foreign-currency revenues in the second half of 1405.
The TSE's 15.4% weekly return through 2 Tir signals broadly positive economic expectations, though the 6,500 billion toman retail outflow on 1 Tir serves as a reminder of the fragility of the recovery in the near term. The car market is contending with a 75% demand collapse; crypto is under global pressure from Fed policy hawkishness and US regulatory uncertainty. The free-market dollar rate has stabilized in the 160,000–162,000 toman range, and cement prices are holding steady at the start of peak construction season.
Key variables to watch in the coming week: results of the first TSE session after the holiday break (Saturday 6 Tir), progress or stalling in comprehensive Iran-US negotiations, OPEC Plus July production data, and global gold market moves in response to Fed policy developments.
Disclaimer: This report is prepared solely for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Investing in any market involves risk. Consult a licensed professional for financial decisions.
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