OPEC+ Raises August Output by 188,000 Barrels a Day as Persian Gulf Exports Through the Strait of Hormuz Top 10 Million Barrels (Sunday, July 5, 2026)

Lead

Seven core producers in the OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, agreed at a virtual meeting on Sunday, July 5, 2026, to raise August production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd). The decision came as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens following the Iran-US ceasefire; according to Reuters and The National (July 5, 2026), total daily oil flows through the strait have now topped 10 million barrels.

Background

Today's increase continues a rollback that began in April 2026: eight OPEC+ members, including the United Arab Emirates before its withdrawal from the group in May 2026, had held a voluntary cut of 1.65 million bpd in place since 2023 and are now gradually unwinding it. But according to Reuters, much of this "paper" increase failed to translate into real exported barrels during the Iran-Israel-US war, when the Strait of Hormuz was temporarily closed to some tankers. Brent crude, which topped $120 a barrel at the height of the crisis, now trades around $72, a drop of roughly 43% from that peak. Sahmino reported on July 4, 2026, that Saudi Arabia's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz had already reached 6.3 million bpd, near pre-crisis levels, a figure now joined by the return of UAE exports.

Key Numbers

Per Reuters and The National (July 5, 2026), the national breakdown of the 188,000 bpd August increase is as follows:

• Saudi Arabia: up 62,000 bpd, to a required level of 10.4 million bpd
• Russia: up 62,000 bpd, to 9.88 million bpd
• Iraq: up 26,000 bpd, to 4.4 million bpd
• Kuwait: up 16,000 bpd, to 2.66 million bpd
• Kazakhstan: up 10,000 bpd, to 1.6 million bpd

Globally, Brent crude traded around $72 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $69 a barrel on Friday, July 3, 2026. Reuters reported in early July 2026 that the UAE had restored its exports to more than 3.9 million bpd, and combined with Saudi Arabia's export increase, total daily oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz surpassed 10 million barrels.

Drivers

The main driver behind the decision is the continued easing of regional tensions. Reuters reported that Qatari and Pakistani mediators held separate meetings with Iranian and US negotiators in Doha last Wednesday (July 1), and US President Donald Trump said Iran-US talks were "going well." At the same time, OPEC+ is gradually reclaiming market share it lost in recent years, a trend aligned with the fading geopolitical risk premium and the drop in global oil prices from wartime levels. In other words, until the Hormuz reopening, many of OPEC+'s quota increases existed only on paper, since tankers could not actually offload cargo; now, with traffic flowing again, the gap between quota and real exports is narrowing.

Outlook

Energy market observers remain focused on the gap between OPEC+'s "paper" quotas and actual exports through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly since Iran also ships part of its own crude oil and condensate through the same waterway, meaning the normalization of Hormuz traffic directly affects the country's foreign-currency inflows. For Iran, the path of Brent crude in the coming weeks is worth watching as one factor affecting export revenue and oil-linked currency supply, without implying any forecast for the currency market's direction or any trading recommendation.

What to Watch

• Monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC on members' actual exports versus announced quotas.
• The continuation of Doha talks between Iran and the US and their effect on Strait of Hormuz traffic.
• OPEC+'s next monthly meeting on September production levels.
• Global oil prices' reaction to actual Persian Gulf export data in the coming days.

The above is provided for observation and awareness only and does not constitute trading advice.

Disclaimer

This note is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures carry a specific as-of date and may have changed by the time of reading; verify information with current, reputable sources before making any financial decision.