Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg (July 2, 2026), reached 6.3 million barrels a day over the six days through Wednesday, July 1, 2026, a level close to pre-war export volumes. At the same time, oil-industry press reports (July 3, 2026) indicate OPEC+ is preparing to approve another roughly 188,000 barrel-per-day production increase for its August meeting, following the same pattern set in June and July.
Background
Saudi Arabia halted a large share of its Gulf exports from the Ras Tanura and Juaymah terminals starting March 9, 2026, after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed following attacks on shipping, rerouting flows instead through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. Following the Iran-US ceasefire on June 19, 2026, and especially after the Switzerland-brokered memorandum of understanding mediated by Oman and Pakistan on June 17, 2026, which opened a 60-day framework for the ceasefire and sanctions and nuclear talks, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed. Per CNBC (July 2, 2026), Saudi Arabia has shipped roughly 34 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz since that memorandum was signed, compared with just 15 million barrels over the entire March 9 to June 17 period.
Key Figures
| Item | Figure | Source and Date |
|---|
| Saudi oil exports via Hormuz (6 days through July 1) | 6.3 million barrels/day | Bloomberg, July 2, 2026 |
| Total Hormuz exports since June 17 | ~34 million barrels | CNBC, July 2, 2026 |
| Hormuz exports before ceasefire (Mar 9 to Jun 17) | ~15 million barrels | CNBC, July 2, 2026 |
| Proposed OPEC+ August output increase | ~188,000 barrels/day | Oil-industry press (Reuters-sourced), July 3, 2026 |
| Crude oil benchmark price | $68.77/barrel | Trading Economics, July 3, 2026 |
| UAE Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline capacity (Hormuz bypass) | 1.5 million barrels/day | Industry reports, operating since 2012 |
Drivers
The main driver behind this trend is the implementation of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding from June 17, 2026, which opened a 60-day framework for the ceasefire, sanctions-relief review, and nuclear talks, and enabled safer tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage for a large share of global oil trade. The United Arab Emirates, alongside Saudi Arabia, is also routing part of its exports through the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and has accelerated construction of a second pipeline due for completion by 2027. OPEC+, which has raised output in several consecutive rounds since the start of the Hormuz crisis, is now considering repeating the roughly 188,000 barrel-a-day increase pattern set in its recent meetings at its upcoming August decision, a sign that core members see the risk of a Hormuz-driven supply shortage as easing.
Iran, meanwhile, which has held the US Treasury's General License X since June 22, 2026, authorizing dollar sales of its crude oil, petrochemical, and petroleum products through August 21, 2026, has not followed a comparable path back to full participation in global markets; the country's banking infrastructure and export logistics carry their own constraints, even as its neighbors restore exports to pre-war levels more quickly.
Outlook
The gradual normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic and a possible OPEC+ decision to raise August output could, if realized, add to global oil supply and ease downward pressure on world prices, a trend that, if sustained, would also affect the scale of any foreign-currency revenue Iran draws from its oil license. Sahmino offers no forecast or recommendation on the future direction of oil prices or how much Iran will actually use this license, and reports only the market trend and mechanism.
What to Watch
Worth following in the coming weeks: OPEC+'s formal decision on the August quota, weekly tanker-traffic reports through the Strait of Hormuz, and any US Treasury update on the implementation of General License X.
Disclaimer
This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures carry a specific as-of date and may have changed since; verify information with official, up-to-date sources before making any decision.
