Lead
Tehran's TEDPIX closed Sunday, August 9, 2026 (18 Mordad 1405) at 5,560,234 points, extending a five session rally that took the index from 5,154,059 points on Sunday, August 2, to this level, a gain of nearly 8 percent in under two weeks. But Sahmino's own trading data shows that in every one of those five sessions, without exception, institutional money was a net seller and retail money was a net buyer. In other words, this record was built by household money, not institutional money. At the same time, Iran's economy wide Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, known in Persian as "shamekh") for the month ending mid July 2026 stood at 47.3, the 16th consecutive month below the 50 point line that separates growth from contraction.
Background
This five session rally coincided with easing tension over the Strait of Hormuz and speculation about an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the waterway. Iran's free market dollar, which had traded at a record of around 194,500 tomans on July 18, fell 4.4 percent to 185,900 tomans by Saturday evening, August 8. That matters because in several well known cases of nominal stock market records elsewhere in the world, a rally coincided with a weakening local currency, meaning the "gain" evaporated once measured in dollars. Tehran's record this time came together with a strengthening rial, not a weakening one. Sahmino's own midday market brief published earlier the same day also reported that today's two hour trading value had already exceeded the previous day's full session total, a sign of accelerating demand rather than fading momentum.
Key Numbers
- 5,560,234 points: TEDPIX at the close of trading on Sunday, August 9, 2026, up 39,894 points (0.72 percent) on the day; Sahmino trading data.
- 7.1 percent: TEDPIX's gain from 5,154,059 points on Sunday, August 2, to 5,520,341 points on Saturday, August 8, over five trading sessions; Sahmino trading data.
- Five straight sessions: the number of sessions (August 2 to August 8) in which, per Sahmino's own trading data, retail investors were net buyers and institutions were net sellers, with the net flow rising from 8.1 billion shares on August 2 to 31 billion shares on August 8.
- 47.3: Iran's economy wide, seasonally adjusted PMI for the month ending mid July 2026 (Tir 1405), the 16th straight month below 50, per the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture research center.
- Minus 5.4 percent: the IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook update projection for Iran's real GDP growth in 2026.
- 4.4 percent: the free market dollar's drop from its July 18 record of about 194,500 tomans to 185,900 tomans by the evening of August 8; per EcoIran and Sahmino's own price feed.
Drivers
Two seemingly opposite forces share one root cause. On one hand, speculation that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal over the Strait of Hormuz has calmed the dollar and lifted appetite for stocks; retail money that had fled the exchange for gold and other safe havens in mid July, as tensions escalated, reversed course in early August and has been a net buyer every day since. On the other hand, institutional money has been a net seller on every one of those same up days, a pattern that typically signals institutions taking profits at historic levels rather than necessarily warning of an imminent crash. This flow divergence, independent of the index level itself, says a great deal about who is actually building today's record.
Meanwhile, Iran's PMI, which measures output, new orders and employment in the real economy, has stayed below the 50 point growth line for 16 straight months, meaning the very sectors many listed companies operate in are still contracting, not expanding. Stock markets are forward looking and can react to a narrative, in this case reduced war risk, well before the real economy does. But that gap between share prices and actual output is exactly what institutional money, through its steady selling over the past five sessions, appears to be pricing in.
Outlook
Per EcoIran's own reporting, the dollar's path forward is tied to how the Iran-Oman talks progress; a successful outcome could keep the dollar lower while letting the rally continue. But that link runs both ways: during the two weeks from July 8 to July 19, when Hormuz tensions were escalating, the exact opposite pattern played out, with the index falling for seven straight sessions and retail money exiting as the dollar hit its 194,500 toman record. That precedent suggests a breakdown in the talks could reverse both trends quickly. Iran's PMI report for the month ending in mid August, due in early September per Sahmino's own calendar, will be the first official signal of whether the gap between the record rally and the real economy's contraction widens or narrows.
Bottom Line
Today's TEDPIX record is real in dollar terms, and unlike some well known cases elsewhere, it came together with a strengthening currency rather than a weakening one. But Sahmino's own trading data shows household money built this record while institutional money sold into every one of the same five sessions, and Iran's PMI is still logging its 16th straight month below the growth line. What is worth remembering: a rising index alone does not tell you who is buying it. For that, you have to look at the flow, not just the headline number.
What to Watch
- Whether institutional selling continues in upcoming sessions or reverses.
- Iran's PMI report for the month ending in mid August 2026, due from the Iran Chamber of Commerce in early September per Sahmino's calendar.
- The outcome of Iran-Oman talks over the Strait of Hormuz and their simultaneous effect on the dollar and the index; see Sahmino's Market Pulse coverage for background.
- The path of the TEDPIX and the free market dollar to see whether this divergence persists or reverses.
