Two US inflation reports came in cooler than expected within a single day of each other. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, released Wednesday, August 12, rose 0.1% month over month (in line with expectations), with annual inflation easing to 3.4% from June's 3.5%. The next day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was even softer: flat month over month against a forecast 0.2% rise, with annual PPI falling to 4.7% from 5.5%. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 4.7% by Friday, August 14, just five basis points below that week's 19-month high of 4.75%. That gap between calm inflation data and a stubborn bond market is exactly the mechanism now shaping the dollar's path, and from there, gold in Tehran.
Background
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said part of the disinflation reflects a fading energy shock tied to the outbreak of the Iran-US military conflict: annual gasoline inflation eased to 24.6% from 26.7%, and fuel-oil inflation to 39.1% from 42.9%. Core consumer inflation (excluding food and energy) slipped to 2.5% from 2.6%. A day later, core producer prices rose 4.2% year over year, though the 0.2% monthly gain was still slower than the prior two months.
Markets reacted quickly and in favor of risk assets. According to Ecoiran, after Thursday's PPI release the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 7,788 and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%; at the same time the 2-year Treasury yield fell 36 basis points to 4.140% and the 10-year fell 43 basis points to 4.63%, while traders cut the odds of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting from about 55% to 34%. Gold, however, dropped 0.66% to 4,372 dollars an ounce in the same window, as fading inflation worry took some shine off safe havens.
The numbers
- July CPI: up 0.1% month over month, annual rate 3.4% (from 3.5% in June); released Wednesday, August 12. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Trading Economics and Arzdigital.
- July PPI: flat month over month (versus a forecast 0.2% rise), annual rate 4.7% (from 5.5% in June), the lowest since March; released Thursday, August 13. Source: same.
- 10-year US Treasury yield: fell to 4.63% right after the PPI print (Thursday, August 13), then rebounded to 4.70% by Friday, August 14, near that week's 19-month high of 4.75%. Source: Trading Economics.
- In Tehran on Sunday, August 16, the free-market dollar traded at 186,680 tomans (down 0.17%) and 18-karat gold at 19,039,400 tomans (down 0.21%). Source: Sahmino price data, as of 19:59 Tehran time.
Drivers
Why did yields climb back even after two soft inflation prints? Trading Economics points to three forces independent of CPI and PPI that pressured long-dated bonds the same week: first, comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting a rate cut is not necessarily his preferred tool against inflation risk, which pushed the 30-year bond to a 19-year high. Second, University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations stayed above 4% for a fifth straight month, keeping alive concern that the Fed could be complacent on inflation. Third, worry that Japan's Ministry of Finance could sell part of its Treasury holdings to defend the yen weighed on demand for long bonds. Alongside these, the energy-price shock tied to Iran-US tensions, even as it eases, remains a live upside risk in the market's inflation expectations.
Outlook
If the slowdown in consumer and producer inflation continues in the September and October reports, markets could price in Fed rate cuts with more confidence, a shift that typically weakens the dollar index (DXY) and lifts global gold. But as long as long-dated yields stay elevated for reasons largely independent of inflation itself (Fed policy signals, bond supply, and inflation expectations), that channel works slowly. Per the FedWatch tool cited by Ecoiran, markets still price more than 60% odds of at least one more 25 basis-point hike by year end, meaning traders do not consider the tightening cycle definitively closed. This outlook is a market-pricing estimate, not a forecast.
Bottom line
Two US inflation reports for July both came in softer than expected and briefly pulled Treasury yields down while lifting stocks and gold, but by the end of the same week the 10-year yield was back at 4.7%, near a 19-month high. That gap between calm data and a stubborn bond market is not a statistical inconsistency; it is a sign that the dollar's and global gold's near-term path is currently being set more by the Fed and the bond market than by the inflation numbers themselves, a path that, with one link in the chain, reaches Tehran's free-market dollar and its coin bubble.
What to watch
The next US inflation reports, for August, are due in mid-September; the Fed's next policy meeting will also show whether markets still price more than 60% odds of another hike. At home, after the Emami coin's premium fell more than 16% overnight, as reported in today's Sahmino market pulse, any fresh move in the global dollar or Treasury yields could reach Tehran's coin and gold premium directly.
Related reading
For the full "Fed to Toman" chain and why the dollar index moves global gold, see Sahmino's lesson on the Fed-to-Toman chain and the lesson on the dollar index (DXY). For the overnight drop in Tehran's coin premium, see today's market pulse. Track live dollar and gold prices on Sahmino's dollar page and 18-karat gold page.
