Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
Pezeshkian Sets Iran's Third-Tier Gasoline Price at 10,000 Tomans: Mapping the Chain Reaction on Inflation, the Dollar, Gold and the Bourse (Friday, August 28, 2026)
President Masoud Pezeshkian said on the evening of Friday, August 28, 2026 (6 Shahrivar 1405) that Iran's third-tier gasoline price, after coordination among relevant institutions, will rise from 5,000 to 10,000 tomans per liter and go no higher. It is the first time the country's top executive official has confirmed a final figure; an implementation date has not been announced. Sahmino examines the chain of effects on inflation, the dollar, gold, the stock market and Iranian industries.
Aref: Top Income Decile Gets 23 Times More Gasoline Subsidy Than Bottom Decile; Government Denies 80,000 Toman Price Rumor (Sunday, August 23, 2026)
Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran's First Vice President, said Sunday, August 23, 2026 that the country's top income decile receives 23 times more benefit from the gasoline subsidy than the bottom decile, and that subsidized gasoline costs the country several billion dollars a year. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani denied a rumored 80,000 toman gasoline price circulating on social media, saying no new figure or pricing model has been approved yet.
Persian Gulf-to-Asia Supertanker Rates Hit $510,000 a Day, Highest Since Late June, Right as the Iran-US 60-Day Ceasefire Lapses (Tuesday, August 18, 2026)
Daily charter rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on the Persian Gulf-to-Asia route jumped to as high as $510,000 a day this week, the highest since late June. Per Bloomberg, one VLCC was chartered this week for $31 million to haul crude from the Gulf to East Asia, while only about 25 of the world's 486 VLCCs are willing to load in the Gulf. The surge coincides with the unextended lapse of the Iran-US 60-day ceasefire on Monday, August 17.
Brent Crude Jumps Nearly 5% in a Day to Top $87 as Iran Ties Hormuz Reopening to Six Conditions and Houthis Claim Drone Strike on Saudi Jazan Refinery (Monday, August 10, 2026)
By Monday evening, August 10, 2026 (19 Mordad 1405), Brent crude had jumped nearly 5% to top $87 a barrel. Sahmino's own feed put it at $87.25 at 20:37 Tehran time, in line with TGJU ($87.48) and Oilprice.com ($87.37). The trigger: Iran's Supreme National Security Council tied any Hormuz reopening to six conditions, while Yemen's Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery.
US Economy Shed 23,000 Jobs in July; Gold Jumps 2.7% to $4,355, Silver Up 4.25% (Friday, August 7, 2026)
The US jobs report for July showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs, against forecasts of roughly 80,000 to 83,000 new jobs; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but only as labor force participation dropped to its lowest since 2021. In reaction, spot gold jumped about 2.7% to $4,355.04 on Friday, August 7, 2026, and silver rose 4.25% to the $64.20 area.
2,582 MW of New Thermal Power Capacity Came Online for 1.4 Billion Euros; Parliament Estimates Illegal Crypto Miners Draw About 2,000 MW (Saturday, 1 August 2026)
Iran's Thermal Power Plant Holding Company said on Saturday, 10 Mordad 1405 (1 August 2026) that 2,582 MW of new capacity has come online since last August on investment of more than 1.4 billion euros, with about 2,000 MW of it going directly to industry. The same day, the head of parliament's power committee said estimates put illegal crypto mining at roughly 2,000 MW of national capacity. Two numbers of the same size, on one day.
Iran's 1404 transit reached 20.516 million tonnes: the asset that never runs out but can be blocked (Friday, 31 July 2026)
In the Iranian year 1404 (ending March 2026), about 20.516 million tonnes of goods transited Iranian territory. Iran sold none of it and was paid only for the passage. Transit is the one part of foreign trade where Iran sells its geography rather than its resources. Yet the 10 month data for the same year show the figure was 4.63 percent smaller than a year earlier, and by Mordad 1405 (July 2026), with the Strait of Hormuz locked and fewer than 10 ships a day, that asset is under fresh pressure.
150 million tons crossed Iran's borders, but the value of each exported ton fell to $343 (Thursday, 30 July 2026)
Iran's customs administration reports that in the year 1404 (March 2025 to March 2026) the country exported 150,508,000 tons of non-oil goods worth $51,657 million, with total non-oil trade passing $109,673 million: the heaviest tonnage on record. Yet in 1403 a similar weight (about 152 million tons) earned about $57.8 billion. The value of each exported ton has fallen from roughly $380 to roughly $343.
Iran grows 85 to 90 percent of the world's saffron but sells it for $862 a kilo: anatomy of the red gold paradox (Sunday, 26 July 2026)
The FAO stated officially on 26 November 2025 that Iran produces 85 to 90 percent of the world's saffron. Yet Iranian customs data for 1403 (2024/25) puts the average export price at roughly $862 per kilo, less than half the world average of about $2,000. Sahmino examines Iran's three different shares of this market, the re-export role of the UAE and Spain, and the counterintuitive finding that "red gold" has lagged both gold and the dollar over the long run.
Did Gasoline Just Become Three-Tier? What Actually Changed on 1 Mordad 1405 (23 July 2026) and What Is Just a Rumor
Before dawn today the monthly 60-liter gasoline quota was loaded onto fuel cards, and a Kerman province pilot began moving the 5,000-toman emergency ration onto personal cards. But no new price was announced and the government denied the "10,000-toman gasoline" rumor. This report separates what actually changed, how big the gasoline imbalance is, and how it reaches inflation and markets. Not buy or sell advice.
