Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
UAE Oil Output Hit a Record 4.1 Million Barrels a Day in June; ADNOC Has Sold Over 90 Million Barrels by Routing Around Hormuz (Wednesday, August 12, 2026)
Citing International Energy Agency estimates, Oilprice.com reports UAE crude output jumped from 3.3 million barrels a day in May to a record 4.1 million bpd in June. Since June, ADNOC has sold more than 90 million barrels via eight spot tenders that route around the Strait of Hormuz, even as Bank of America says only 5 to 10 ships a day now transit the Strait, versus about 140 before the war.
$160 Million a Day: ExxonMobil and Chevron Booked a Combined $26.6 Billion Quarter; Anatomy of a Geopolitical Risk Premium (Saturday, August 1, 2026)
On Friday, July 31, 2026 (9 Mordad 1405), ExxonMobil and Chevron reported second-quarter 2026 results: $14.5 billion and $12.1 billion, a combined $26.6 billion. Divide Exxon's profit by the quarter's 91 days and you get close to $160 million a day. The bigger point is not the size of the numbers: Exxon produced less oil than in the previous quarter and still more than tripled its earnings. This piece unpacks the geopolitical risk premium and where Iran sits in it.
Iran's 1404 transit reached 20.516 million tonnes: the asset that never runs out but can be blocked (Friday, 31 July 2026)
In the Iranian year 1404 (ending March 2026), about 20.516 million tonnes of goods transited Iranian territory. Iran sold none of it and was paid only for the passage. Transit is the one part of foreign trade where Iran sells its geography rather than its resources. Yet the 10 month data for the same year show the figure was 4.63 percent smaller than a year earlier, and by Mordad 1405 (July 2026), with the Strait of Hormuz locked and fewer than 10 ships a day, that asset is under fresh pressure.
150 million tons crossed Iran's borders, but the value of each exported ton fell to $343 (Thursday, 30 July 2026)
Iran's customs administration reports that in the year 1404 (March 2025 to March 2026) the country exported 150,508,000 tons of non-oil goods worth $51,657 million, with total non-oil trade passing $109,673 million: the heaviest tonnage on record. Yet in 1403 a similar weight (about 152 million tons) earned about $57.8 billion. The value of each exported ton has fallen from roughly $380 to roughly $343.
Iran grows 85 to 90 percent of the world's saffron but sells it for $862 a kilo: anatomy of the red gold paradox (Sunday, 26 July 2026)
The FAO stated officially on 26 November 2025 that Iran produces 85 to 90 percent of the world's saffron. Yet Iranian customs data for 1403 (2024/25) puts the average export price at roughly $862 per kilo, less than half the world average of about $2,000. Sahmino examines Iran's three different shares of this market, the re-export role of the UAE and Spain, and the counterintuitive finding that "red gold" has lagged both gold and the dollar over the long run.
Did Gasoline Just Become Three-Tier? What Actually Changed on 1 Mordad 1405 (23 July 2026) and What Is Just a Rumor
Before dawn today the monthly 60-liter gasoline quota was loaded onto fuel cards, and a Kerman province pilot began moving the 5,000-toman emergency ration onto personal cards. But no new price was announced and the government denied the "10,000-toman gasoline" rumor. This report separates what actually changed, how big the gasoline imbalance is, and how it reaches inflation and markets. Not buy or sell advice.
