Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
AnalysisZarif's Foreign Affairs Vision and Iran's Markets: Two Scenarios for the Dollar, Gold, and Stocks
In a Foreign Affairs essay, former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argues that West Asia's own states should build the region's security and economic order. Sahmino lays out his case, the serious criticism of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, and the bourse under two scenarios, de-escalation and continued war, with a look at the July 21, 2026 market where the free-market dollar trades near 190,000 tomans.
AnalysisIran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality
The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF projecting a 6.1 percent contraction for 2026, Sahmino measures the multipolar narrative against the numbers (21 July 2026).
AnalysisThat Year the Price Was at Its Peak, Today It Is the Risk: The Lesson of 1399 for Stocks and Housing in 1405
In 1399 (2020 to 2021) the Tehran bourse peaked at a price-to-earnings ratio above 35 and a dollar market value up to 427 billion, while housing jumped 92 percent. Today, in Tir 1405 (July 2026), it is inverted: the bourse near a P/E of 6.4 and about 85 billion dollars, deeply discounted, and housing near its long-run dollar average but frozen, transactions down about 80 percent. The lesson of 1399: that year the price was at its peak; today the risk is.
AnalysisThe Market Was Red for Eight Days; These Five Stocks Rose Against the Tide: Anatomy of "Resilience" on the Tehran Exchange (Week Ending Saturday, 18 July 2026)
In the red week when Tehran's TEDPIX index posted an eighth straight decline, sliding from roughly 5,182,622 points (11 July) to around 4,777,285 points (Saturday, 18 July 2026 / 27 Tir 1405), five symbols showed a genuine multi-session uptrend: Fanavar (Tosan), Hormoz, Vakharazm, Sarood and Kakhak. This is a descriptive, educational report, not buy or sell advice; its focus is separating real resilience from a one-day dead-cat bounce.
AnalysisA reader asked us: the bourse has been red for eight days. Buy gold and dollars, or hunt for war-resistant stocks?
On Saturday 27 Tir 1405 (18 July 2026) the Tehran Stock Exchange main index fell 2.44% for its eighth straight red session, the same day the free-market dollar hit a record near 194,500 tomans. A reader asked: should I pull my money out of stocks and buy gold and dollars, or stay in the bourse and look for war-resistant shares? Sahmino's neutral framework for the dilemma, with dated figures and the intra-bourse divergence signal. This is not buy or sell advice.
AnalysisMelted Gold or the Emami Coin? A Technical Guide to Preserving Value in Iran's Inflationary Economy
Melted gold and the Emami coin are both gold, yet one carries a near-zero premium and the other a volatile one. Per Sahmino's price feed on Saturday night, 27 Tir 1405 (18 July 2026), the Emami coin's premium was about 6 million tomans (near 3.3 percent) while melted gold's was only about 238 thousand tomans (near 0.3 percent). A technical guide to comparing the two for preserving value against inflation, with no buy or sell advice.
AnalysisBehsaz Kashaneh Tehran (Sabhesaz) Under the Lens: A 74% Gross Margin and 1,877 Billion Toman Profit; How Much Is Value Creation, and How Much Is Cashing In Inflation? (Sunday, 19 July 2026)
Behsaz Kashaneh Tehran (Sabhesaz) closed its fiscal year ending 30 Azar 1404 (21 Dec 2025) with a 73.7% gross margin and audited net profit of about 1,877 billion tomans. But behind that dreamlike margin sits one fact: revenue grew only 15% in a year when average inflation hit 57.7%, meaning real sales shrank. Neutrally and with no buy or sell advice, we trace where this profit comes from. (Figures as of 15 and 19 July 2026.)
AnalysisVomodir Under the Lens: A 17,346 Billion Rial Net Profit and a Price to Earnings of 3.2; Why the Market Prices the Pension Fund Holding at a Discount (Saturday, 18 July 2026)
Vomodir (Value Capital Management Group of the Government Employees Pension Fund) closed its audited fiscal 1404 (ended 21 December 2025) with net profit of 17,346 billion rial (about 1,735 billion toman), EPS of 667 rial and a 220 rial dividend. Yet two thirds of that profit came from selling investments, and the market prices the holding at 3.2 times earnings versus 5.8 for the sector. This analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.
AnalysisGhachar Under the Lens: Chaharmahal Sugar's Sales Rose 50% and Profit 43% in FY1404; But Through the Inflation Lens, Real Growth Is Near Zero (Saturday, 18 July 2026)
Chaharmahal Food & Sugar (ticker: Ghachar), on Iran's Farabourse, reported fiscal 1404 (to 20 March 2026) results with revenue up about 50% and net profit up 43%. But on any reasonable read of 1404 inflation, this nominal growth is at best in line with inflation and real growth is near zero. The figures are still unaudited and the ticker carries a supervisory flag; against that, its P/E of about 5.5 sits below the 8.27 sugar-group average. This analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.
AnalysisDabid Under the Microscope: Dr Abidi Pharmaceutical's Six-Month Profit Jumped 3.3x; Dissecting a Surge That Didn't Come From Sales Alone (Saturday, 18 July 2026)
Mid-session today, Dr Abidi Pharmaceutical (Dabid) published its unaudited six-month statements: revenue grew 118% to 13.2 thousand billion tomans, the operating margin jumped to 50.2%, and net profit reached 3.3x at an EPS of 939 rials. A dissection shows four engines behind the jump, but three questions stay open: the cash backing of profit, the price-versus-volume split, and the nature of 958 billion tomans of non-operating income.
AnalysisVomelal Under the Lens: A 14.3-Trillion-Toman Net Loss and Negative 59% Capital Adequacy; Why Conventional Valuation Tools Fail for Mellal Credit Institution (Saturday, July 18, 2026)
Mellal Credit Institution (Vomelal) posted a net loss of 14.3 trillion tomans and negative EPS of 7,169 rials for fiscal year 1404; its capital adequacy sank to negative 59% and shareholders' equity turned negative. The ticker has been halted since November 2025 and the institution is run by a Central Bank supervisory board. Why nominal lending-income growth does not solve a balance-sheet crisis, and why P/E and P/B are meaningless here. No buy or sell advice.
AnalysisKapshir Under the Lens: Pashm-Shishe Iran's Net Profit Leapt 95%, but Real Sales Have Been Shrinking for Three Years (Friday, 17 July 2026)
Pashm-Shishe Iran (ticker: Kapshir) lifted revenue 54% and net profit 95% in fiscal 1404, pushing its net margin to 40.8%. But the sales charts show real volumes of both glass wool and Isogam falling for a third straight year, meaning the jump is almost entirely inflationary. At a Q ratio of about 0.79, the market is pricing the company slightly below its replacement cost.
AnalysisSouthern Iran Under Fire: Sahmino's Analysis of the Economic Fallout and the Paths Ahead
The sixth wave of US strikes on southern Iran is, above all, a human tragedy. On the economic side, by the evening of Friday, 17 July 2026 (26 Tir 1405) the domestic Tether rate had climbed to around 193,000 tomans and the coin premium held near a multi-week record, while the fate of Saturday's Oman meeting remains unclear. Sahmino reviews the impact across currency, gold, the bourse, energy and ports, plus three scenarios ahead. This analysis is not buy or sell advice.
AnalysisVomahan Under the Lens: Why Mehr Ayandegan Financial Group Should Be Judged by Price to Net Asset Value, Not Profit Margin (Tuesday, 14 July 2026)
A reader asked, "What do you make of Vomahan?" The right answer starts with one fact: Vomahan, the ticker of Mehr Ayandegan Financial Group, is an investment holding on Iran's OTC market (Farabourse), not a factory. For this kind of stock the correct yardstick is not profit margin or a simple P/E, but price to net asset value (P/NAV). The last price is 7,380 rials (Sahmino, 14 July 2026), and the stock has historically traded at a discount to NAV. Not investment advice.
AnalysisSepardis Under the Lens: Why Maskan Pardis Investment Trades at a Discount to the Current Value of Its Assets, A Detailed Fundamental Analysis
A detailed analysis of Separdis (Maskan Pardis Investment) interim statements: revenue fell 44% yet the margin jumped to 59%, operating cash flow turned negative, and receivables and stalled projects rose. The key point, though, is the hidden asset: with 100% housing inflation, the current value of the property inventory and the 115-hectare Pardis land is far above book, and the share likely trades at a 30% to 50% discount to NAV. Neutral, with no buy or sell recommendation.
AnalysisShatran Under the Lens: Is Tehran Oil Refining's 335% Gross-Profit Jump Real or Paper? A Fundamental and Forensic Analysis
Tehran Oil Refining (Shatran) in fiscal 1404 (2025/26) lifted revenue 32%, gross profit 335% and net profit 287%. But a forensic look shows operating cash flow is only 23% of net profit and accounts receivable have jumped 273%. This neutral analysis, with no buy or sell recommendation, probes earnings quality, the balance sheet, and the durability of this growth.
AnalysisBAMA Under the Lens: Bama Mining's Net Profit Roughly Quadrupled in a Year, But Why the Quality of That Jump Matters More Than the Number (Tuesday, July 14, 2026)
A reader asked what we think of BAMA. Net profit at Bama Mining & Industrial rose from roughly 422 to about 1,597 billion tomans, nearly a fourfold jump in a year. But much of it came from FX-translation gains and higher global zinc prices, not more output, output volume actually fell around 6 percent. A neutral look at a profitable but cyclical, dollar-linked miner (as of Tuesday, July 14, 2026). Educational, not buy or sell advice.
AnalysisKafpars Under the Lens: A 1,519% Revaluation-Based Capital Increase and the Fundamental Root of a Decade of Shareholder Frustration at Pars Refractories (July 13, 2026)
A Sahmino reader wrote: "I have held Kafpars for ten years, nothing but losses." Neutrally and with no buy or sell advice, drawing on official exchange data and financial statements, we examine why Pars Refractories Products has failed to satisfy its long-term holders: from thin, fragile profitability to a 1,519% capital increase funded entirely by asset revaluation, and how that distorts the unadjusted price chart. Figures as of July 13, 2026.
AnalysisThe Factories Are Back, the Symbols Are Not: 42 War-Damaged Tickers Worth About 35% of the Tehran Bourse Stayed Frozen Through 22 Tir (Monday, July 13, 2026)
Roughly 42 war-damaged tickers on the Tehran Stock Exchange, together about 35% of total market value, from Foolad and Fakhouz to Bafajr, Mobin and Shavan, stayed suspended through 31 Tir 1405 (July 22, 2026), even as many of the same firms restarted production. Mobarakeh Steel revived its No. 8 furnace in about 45 days, and officials say nearly 89% of war-hit petrochemical units are back online. The main index (TEDPIX) closed Monday down 1.79% below 5 million points, at 4,966,761.
AnalysisKarbon Trades at a 5.1 P/E Against Its Sector's 21.8; Why the Chart's 56% Drop Is Partly a Price-Adjustment Illusion (Monday, July 13, 2026)
Karbon (Kani Karbon Tabas), a coal-mining stock on the second market of Iran's Farabourse (OTC market), trades at a 5,960-rial close, a price-to-earnings ratio near 5.1, and an earnings yield close to 20%, while its coal-mining sector averages 21.8. This data-driven report shows that much of the 56% fall from the one-year high is not a real crash but the price-adjustment effect of two corporate actions (a capital increase and a dividend). Figures as of July 13, 2026.
AnalysisTAPICO Closes Persian Gulf Star Refinery's 15-Year FX-Debt File; Its 49% Stake One Step From an IPO (Sunday, July 12, 2026)
TAPICO's CEO says the roughly $3 billion FX-debt file of Persian Gulf Star Refinery has been closed after about 15 years, leaving the plant "one step" from an IPO. TAPICO owns 49% of the asset; the PTAP symbol traded at 2,962 tomans on Sunday, July 12, 2026, about 79% of its published NAV. Why the debt fix matters and what the market is pricing.
AnalysisTehran Stock Exchange Opens Down About 2.5% on Sunday, July 12, 2026: The Psychology of the Sell-Off and Systematic vs Fundamental Risk
On the morning of Sunday, July 12, 2026 (21 Tir 1405), the Tehran Stock Exchange overall index (TEDPIX) fell about 2.49% to around 5,056,740 in early trade, extending several pressured sessions; the equal-weighted index dropped 2.08%, a sign the selling is broad. This piece explains what a heavy sell queue means, why even fundamentally sound shares get sold on days like this, and why systematic risk does not necessarily mean companies' intrinsic value has changed.
AnalysisKermanshah Petrochemical (Karmasha) Is About to Reopen After Its AGM: a 97% Capital Increase, a 1,227-Rial Dividend, and the Global Urea Shock in the Background (Saturday, July 11, 2026)
Kermanshah Petrochemical (Karmasha), one of the few urea and ammonia producers on the Tehran Stock Exchange, is halted for its annual meeting and about to reopen. It registered a 97% capital increase and approved a 1,227-rial dividend (40% payout) at its July 7 AGM. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of about 8.18, roughly in line with the chemicals group average of 8.24, so its story is the global urea cycle amid the renewed Hormuz crisis, not a valuation discount.
AnalysisEmami Gold Coin's Premium Falls to 5,101,000 Tomans on Friday, July 10, 2026; Three Legal, Tax-Exempt Ways to Trade It
On Friday, July 10, 2026 (19 Tir 1405), Iran's Emami coin traded around 182 million tomans and its premium over intrinsic gold/dollar value fell to 5,101,000 tomans (about 2.8%), down from 7,091,000 a week earlier. This piece explains the mechanics and three legal, tax-exempt trading channels: the CBI auction, the exchange coin deposit certificate, and gold funds.
AnalysisIsfahan Refinery's Replacement Value Is Up to 5x Shapna's Market Cap; How Much of That Gap Does the Market Price In? (Thursday, July 9, 2026)
Shapna's (Isfahan Oil Refining) Tehran Stock Exchange market cap is estimated at $2.6 to $2.8 billion based on available reporting. Rebuilding a refinery of the same capacity from scratch, using global refinery cost benchmarks, could cost $7.5 to $13.1 billion, meaning the market prices this asset at only 20 to 38 percent of its estimated replacement value.
AnalysisTCI's EPS Fell to 4 Rials; The 1,555% Capital Increase Behind Iran Telecom's Numbers (Thursday, July 9, 2026)
TCI's (Telecommunication Company of Iran, ticker اخابر) earnings per share for fiscal year 1403 (ended March 2025) came in at just 4 rials, even as value added, operating revenue, and net profit each grew about 22%. The reason is a 1,555% capital increase approved in Bahman 1402. The June 2025 shareholder meeting approved a 40-rial dividend per share.
AnalysisBank Tejarat Raises Capital 340 Percent: What the H1 1404 Earnings Report Shows (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Bank Tejarat raised its registered capital 340.6 percent, from 33.6 to 148 trillion tomans, at a March 2025 assembly. Its first six-month report since then shows net profit up 14 percent and earnings per share up 21 percent (Wednesday, July 8, 2026).
AnalysisBank Mellat's EPS: 656 Rials or 335? The Reason Behind the Conflicting Six-Month Reports (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Two different reports put Bank Mellat's first-half fiscal 1404 earnings per share at 656 rials and 335 rials, both citing the same 79.36-trillion-toman net profit. The gap traces to a capital increase that nearly doubled the bank's share count (Wednesday, July 8, 2026).
AnalysisCoin Premium Rose 6.85% This Week; Why, Even as Global Gold Fell? (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
The Emami gold coin's premium reached about 7,091,000 tomans in its latest weekly reading (Sunday, July 5, 2026), up 6.85% week on week. That happened even as global gold fell about $49 (1.2%) from $4,165 to $4,116 on Tuesday night after the Strait of Hormuz attack pushed the Fed toward a more hawkish tone.
AnalysisBank Mellat's Capital Grew From 35 to 338 Trillion Tomans; Why Vabmellat's EPS Shouldn't Be Compared to Old Figures (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Bank Mellat's (Vabmellat, وبملت) registered capital rose in four stages from December 2023 to May 2026, from 35.3 to 338.2 trillion tomans, a nearly tenfold increase that took its share count above 3.38 billion. This report traces Bank Mellat's capital-increase history and explains why its reported EPS varies across sources.
AnalysisIran's Housing Inflation Hit 4.7% in Khordad; Why Did It Lag Food and Clothing? (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)
Iran's Central Bank released its Khordad (the Iranian month ending June 21, 2026) inflation report on Tuesday, June 30, 2026: annual inflation at 57.7% and point-to-point inflation at 83.1%. The "housing, water, electricity and fuel" group rose just 4.7% that month, slower than food (8.7%), clothing (9.5%) and furniture (10%), echoing Sahmino's report last week on rent's lagging growth.
AnalysisIran's Largest Ever IPO Is Coming: Taban Farda Petrochemical Valuation Finalized (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)
Iran's Securities and Exchange Organization says the valuation of Taban Farda Petrochemical Group is complete (June 28, 2026); a 5% stake in the holding, whose listed portfolio is valued at roughly 3,180 trillion rials (about 318 trillion tomans), is expected to be offered within two weeks, in what its CEO calls the largest transaction in Tehran Stock Exchange history.
AnalysisWhat Is Shapna's Forward P/E? Estimating It From Isfahan Oil Refining's 1,152 Rial EPS (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)
Shapna (Isfahan Oil Refining) last traded at a confirmed 8,160 rials per share (May 15, 2026); against EPS of 1,152 rials that puts trailing P/E at 7.08x. This report estimates forward P/E under three scenarios, built from the company's earnings trend, Brent, and the free market dollar.
AnalysisWhat Is Bank Mellat's Forward P/E? An Estimate Based on Its 6-Month EPS of 335 Rials (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)
Bank Mellat's Tehran Stock Exchange ticker, Vabmellat (وبملت), traded around 1,284 rials on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Using its 335-rial six-month EPS for H1 of Iranian fiscal year 1404 (up 36% year on year), this report calculates a forward P/E under conservative, base, and optimistic scenarios.
AnalysisIran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a temporary US license letting Iran sell oil for dollars.
AnalysisHow Tehran Stock Exchange Analysts Screen for Undervalued, Overlooked Stocks: Five Current Examples With Official Evidence (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Beyond the headline index, some Tehran Stock Exchange analysts screen for overlooked stocks using criteria like a low forward P/E, a discount to NAV, and leverage from the gap between Iran's free-market and NIMA exchange rates. Sahmino examines the method itself, alongside five current symbols with official financials as evidence, each with its own catalyst and risk (Monday, Tir 15, 1405 / July 6, 2026).
AnalysisEthereum Unveils Four-Year Roadmap: Biggest Protocol Rebuild Since The Merge (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Vitalik Buterin unveiled the "Lean Ethereum" roadmap on Saturday, July 4, 2026: a three-to-four-year plan to cut transaction finality from 16 minutes to seconds and harden the network against quantum computers by 2029. Ether traded near $1,791 on Monday, July 6, up nearly 13% for the week.
AnalysisFmelli Under the Microscope: National Iranian Copper Industries' Net Profit Hit 149.6 Trillion Tomans in FY1404 (Fundamental Analysis, Sunday, July 5, 2026)
National Iranian Copper Industries Co. (TSE: Fmelli), Iran's largest copper producer, reported a net profit of 149.6 trillion tomans for fiscal year 1404 (ended March 20, 2026), up 98% year on year. With a P/E ratio of about 22.4 as of the last trading session before the Tehran bourse's three-day closure (July 1, 2026), this report reviews the company's value chain, financials, mineral reserves, and risks, with no buy or sell recommendation.
AnalysisFree Trade Zone Plate Conversion Fee Rises to 100% of Customs Value; Up From 90% Under Iran's 1405 Budget (Saturday, July 4, 2026)
The fee to convert an Iranian free trade zone vehicle plate (Kish, Qeshm, Arvand, Chabahar, Mako) to a national plate has risen to 100% of customs value under the 1405 (2026/27) budget law, up from 90% through the end of 1404, per reports published June 29, 2026. Separately, traffic police have denied claims of a permanent, unrestricted nationwide travel exemption for these vehicles.
AnalysisFrom Barter to an "Offshore Rial": Iran Seeks to Formalize Rial Afghani Trade Settlement (Saturday, July 4, 2026)
The head of the Iran Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce says Iran's goal is to turn the traditional rial afghani barter system into a formal banking platform, reducing exporters' reliance on third currencies. Under the latest official Afghan data (November 2024), Afghanistan exported only about $30 million worth of goods to Iran while importing roughly $1.8 billion from it, an imbalance the central bank's new "offshore rial" tool aims to address.
AnalysisIran's Rebar Market Stalls for Two Weeks as Beam Prices Edge Up on FX Swings (Friday, July 3, 2026)
From June 22 to July 1, 2026 (1 to 10 Tir 1405), rebar prices at most Iranian mills held flat or fluctuated within a narrow band, while some steel beam sizes rose 200 to 2,000 tomans on exchange-rate volatility. Meanwhile, Furnace 8 at Mobarakeh Steel, damaged in air strikes months earlier, returned to production on June 9, 2026 (19 Khordad 1405), in just 45 days versus an initial four-month estimate.
AnalysisUS 60-Day Oil Waiver for Iran: Up to $3.06 Billion in Possible FX Revenue Through August 21, 2026
The US Treasury's General License X, issued June 22, 2026, allows Iran to sell crude oil, petrochemical and petroleum products for US dollars, for the first time in over four decades, through August 21, 2026. Newsweek's analysis puts the potential revenue at up to $3.06 billion over the 60-day window.
AnalysisPower Rationing and Gas Cuts to Iran's Cement Plants Tighten Supply (July 2, 2026)
Iran's grid operator Tavanir has rationed electricity to cement and steel plants province by province from June through August 2026, and gas has been cut entirely to cement plants in several provinces. Meanwhile, wholesale cement bag prices in Tehran and Saveh reached about 253,000 toman by June 30, 2026, and Sufian cement about 281,000 toman.
AnalysisIran Khodro's 30-50% Factory Price Hike Ignites Dispute with the Competition Council (July 2, 2026)
Iran Khodro raised factory prices 30-50% on June 17, 2026, an increase a member of parliament's industries commission says exceeded what the Competition Council had cleared. The Ministry of Industry and the Competition Council still have not resolved the pricing-authority dispute as of July 2, 2026, while year-on-year car-purchase inflation hit 124.1% in Khordad (June 2026).
AnalysisIran's Rent Inflation Hits 31.2% in Khordad (June 2026), Slowest-Rising Item in the Household Basket
Iran's Statistical Center (SCI) reports that year on year rent inflation reached 31.2% in Khordad 1405 (the month ending June 21, 2026), against a nationwide headline inflation rate of 88.6% for the same month, a gap of roughly 57 percentage points that put rent at the bottom of the consumer basket's inflation table. In Tehran, advertised rents reached about 660,000 toman per square meter, up around 43% from a year earlier.