Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
The Neighbors' Markets: How Does Iran Connect to the Persian Gulf, Iraq, the Caucasus and Central Asia?
Four distinct channels link Iran to its neighbors' economies: Iraq as a goods export destination, the UAE as a financial and re-export hub, the Caucasus as a transit and energy corridor, and the east as a barter settlement route. Each channel comes with a dated real number.
Four Channels That Connect the Global Economy to Iran's Markets: From the Fed's Rate to Oil Prices
Learn how a Fed decision, the dollar index, the global gold ounce and the price of oil reach Tehran's free dollar, the coin, domestic gold and the stock market, with a hypothetical worked example for the dollar-gold chain and a real, dated example for the oil channel.
Portfolio Risk Management, From Time Horizon to Scenario Planning and Rebalancing
Time horizon sets how much risk an investor can take, scenario planning shows what a portfolio does under stress, and rebalancing restores it to target weights. This educational, non-prescriptive lesson walks through all three with a real, dated Tehran Stock Exchange example.
What Is Intermarket Analysis: How Long Do Iran's Dollar, Gold, Stocks and Housing Take to React?
Learn what intermarket analysis means, why global gold usually reacts to a shock before the dollar, the dollar before the Tehran bourse, and the bourse before housing, illustrated with a real, dated example from Iran's markets in the week of August 19 to 22, 2026.
A Map of Global Markets: What Is an Index, and Why Does Its News Reach Iran's Market?
Learn what a stock index measures, why some of the world's benchmark indices are price weighted while others are market cap weighted, meet a few major global indices and currency pairs, and see the three channels through which their news reaches Iran's market.
What Is Government Budget Deficit and Fiscal Dominance, and Why Does It Reach Both Inflation and the Stock Market?
This lesson explains how a government budget deficit gets financed, either by selling bonds or with central bank help, what "fiscal dominance" means, and why these decisions reach both inflation and the stock market; with a labelled hypothetical example and a note on dated real figures.
Central Bank Monetary Policy: How the Interbank Rate and Open Market Operations Move Markets
Learn how Iran's central bank steers liquidity through the interbank rate, open market operations, and balance sheet tools like the reserve requirement ratio, and how these weekly decisions reach the stock market, currency, gold, and crypto.
Trading Fees and Taxes: What Leaves Your Pocket Before Any Profit Arrives
This lesson explains how trading fees and taxes are calculated in Iran's stock, housing, car and gold markets, who pays each item (buyer or seller), and why percentages that look tiny quietly erode the real return of an active trader.
Money Supply and the Monetary Base: Where New Money Comes From, and Why It Is Tied to Inflation
This lesson explains what the monetary base and broad money (naqdinegi, M2) actually count, how new money is created on two levels (the central bank and the banking network), what the money multiplier measures, and why sustained money growth reaches inflation with a lag. With a labelled hypothetical example and dated real figures from the Central Bank of Iran for the end of Esfand 1404 (March 2026).
Compound Interest in an Inflationary Economy: Why a 23% Deposit Against 61.4% Inflation Returns Minus 24%
Compound interest is not a financial trick but a mathematical property that works in both directions. At 20 percent, 100 million tomans becomes about 3,834 million over 20 years, while simple interest yields only 600 million. But inflation compounds too: at the 61.4 percent annual inflation of Tir 1405 (July 2026), the purchasing power of cash halves roughly every 14 months, and a 23 percent deposit delivers a real return near minus 24 percent.
What Is Liquidity, and Why Selling a House Differs From Selling Gold
Learn what liquidity means, why one asset converts to cash quickly and near a fair price while another does not, and how to weigh the hidden cost of not being liquid. We walk the liquidity spectrum of an Iranian household's assets, from deposits and gold to housing, with clearly labelled hypothetical figures.
What Is Diversification? Why You Should Not Put All Your Eggs in One Basket
This lesson explains what diversification means, how spreading money across several assets lowers risk, and why "correlation" between assets is the key. Using a hypothetical gold-and-stocks example, we show how a good basket is built, and why buying dollars, coins and gold at the same time is not really diversification.
Risk and Return: How Are They Related, and Which Risks Threaten a Household's Savings?
Asset Allocation in Iran's Inflationary Economy: A Professional Framework for Building and Rebalancing a Portfolio
Asset allocation, not stock picking, explains most of a portfolio's return variability, yet the standard models assume what Iran lacks: a true risk-free asset and single-digit inflation. This article rewrites the framework for Iran's market: the shared currency anchor and false diversification, real versus nominal return, the true role of each asset class, and rebalancing rules where there are neither hedging instruments nor uniform liquidity.
How Markets Discover Prices
Learn what a market actually is, how supply and demand jointly shape a price, and why expectations, whether in Iran's free currency market or its coin market, can move a price even before supply or demand truly changes.
What Is Bank Deposit Interest? Nominal, Effective, and Real Returns Explained
Learn the difference between nominal, effective, and real interest on a bank deposit, and why comparing a deposit's return to the period's inflation rate gives a truer picture of what happens to a saver's purchasing power.
What Is an Asset? A Map of an Iranian Household's Assets
Learn what an asset is, how financial assets differ from real assets, and the general map of assets an Iranian household typically holds (deposits, gold and coin, currency, stocks, funds, housing, cars), with no comparison or recommendation about which is better.
Money, Inflation, and Purchasing Power
Learn what money, purchasing power, and inflation mean and how they are measured; a labelled hypothetical example shows why idle rial savings can lose part of their real value.
