Isfahan Refinery's Replacement Value Is Up to 5x Shapna's Market Cap; How Much of That Gap Does the Market Price In? (Thursday, July 9, 2026)

Rebuilding this refinery from scratch could cost up to five times what its stock is worth today. Shapna's market value on the Tehran Stock Exchange is about two point six billion dollars. That works out to roughly four hundred seventy two trillion tomans. Replacement value means what it would cost to rebuild the same capacity today, from zero. Refining capacity is three hundred seventy five thousand barrels a day. The same stock rose almost three percent on Tuesday, then the market crashed just one day later. Refiner profit is capped by a government feedstock formula and an approved crack spread, not free global prices. Decades of sanctions mean there is no comparable Iranian deal to calibrate replacement value against. On that basis, replacement value is estimated at seven and a half to thirteen billion dollars. The ceasefire's collapse and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz added extra risk to the price. This gap is one common lens for valuing asset heavy stocks like refiners. From Tuesday's oil jump to Wednesday's index drop, only one day passed. But replacement value alone is not a buy or sell signal; other factors matter too. Watch what price the exchange sets for this stock when it reopens Saturday. Read the full analysis on Sahmino.