OPEC and IEA Cut 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts as Brent Slips to the $88 Channel; Iran Market Pulse, Thursday Midday, 22 Mordad 1405

Today just eight ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz; before the war, about one hundred forty crossed daily. Brent crude fell about half a percent today to eighty eight dollars and fifty cents. OPEC and the International Energy Agency both cut this year's oil demand forecast, citing the closed Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz traffic fell to just eight vessels Tuesday, against a ten day average of twelve ships a day. Two Indian state refiners are seeking six million barrels of crude that never has to cross Hormuz. The free dollar traded near one eighty seven thousand tomans, bitcoin near sixty four thousand dollars. Tehran's bourse and Farabourse are both closed today; Tuesday's record still stands, and both reopen Saturday. The energy agency raised its demand cut estimate, and OPEC trimmed its growth forecast too. When ships cannot easily clear Hormuz, even softer demand cannot fully calm the oil market. From here three paths open up: an Oman brokered reopening, a continued status quo, or a fresh escalation. Tehran's cash bazaar has posted no fresh rate since Tuesday night, but exchange gold still prices daily. For today and tomorrow: energy market reaction, Iran Oman talks, and Saturday's bourse and bazaar reopening. Today's verdict: Iran's market was quiet, but the real driver came from the Strait of Hormuz, not Tehran. So here is the answer: Hormuz risk just went structural. Do you think Hormuz reopens this year, or not?