That Year the Price Was at Its Peak, Today It Is the Risk: The Lesson of 1399 for Stocks and Housing in 1405

In 1399, prices were at their peak; today, it is the risk that is peaking. Iran's two big markets, stocks and housing, now mirror 1399 in reverse. The bourse price to earnings is about six point four; in 1399 it was above thirty five. In 1399, stocks and housing formed a twin bubble and peaked together. That year the market's dollar value hit four hundred twenty seven billion, and housing jumped ninety two percent. The slide began on the tenth of August 2020, and the top buyer lost about seventy five percent in dollars. Today the market is worth about eighty five billion dollars, and housing deals are down nearly eighty percent. Both markets breathe under one shared risk: the dollar, inflation, and high interest rates. The free dollar is near one hundred ninety thousand tomans, and treasury yields are near forty percent. The key lesson: nominal return is not real return; big numbers are not always profit. That year the price was at its peak; today the risk is. Cheap does not mean safe. Measure every asset with a dollar lens and against that forty percent risk free rate. Three scenarios lie ahead: cold peace, renewed war, or a deal; each moves both markets differently. Watch these six thresholds to see the turn before the price shows it. Read the full analysis on Sahmino dot com; which looks lower risk to you today, stocks or housing, and why?