Lead
Global gold rose roughly 1.3 to 1.5 percent to the $4,176 to $4,183 range per ounce on the morning of Friday, July 3, 2026 (12 Tir 1405 on Iran's calendar), pulling further away from last week's seven to eight month low. The move carried Iran's domestic gold and coin markets higher with it: 18 karat gold in Tehran's free market reached roughly 17.5 million tomans on Friday. Gold nonetheless remains far below the all time record it set earlier this year.
Background
Gold hit an all time record of $5,589.38 an ounce on January 28, 2026, according to CBS News. Since then it entered a prolonged correction: per Tejarat News (Tuesday, June 30, 2026), gold posted its worst quarterly performance in 13 years and fell to an eight month low, dropping below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025; some international outlets put the intraday low of that correction at $3,959.33 on June 24, 2026. As of Wednesday, July 1, 2026, spot gold was still trading around $3,981.50, down 0.7 percent, and below the $4,000 mark (Tejarat News). The June US jobs report, released Thursday, July 2, reversed that trend, pushing gold back above $4,100 with a more than 2 percent jump; the rally continued into Friday.
Key figures
| Metric | Figure | Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold spot (global, per ounce) | $4,176 to $4,183 | Up 1.3 to 1.5% | Friday, July 3, 2026 (Nasim, Trading Economics) |
| Gold futures, Comex | $4,189.50 | Up 1.55% | Friday, July 3, 2026 (Nasim) |
| All time record (spot) | $5,589.38 | Set January 28, 2026 | January 28, 2026 (CBS News) |
| 18 karat gold, Tehran free market | ~17.5 million tomans/gram | Up from Thursday's 17,475,500 tomans | Friday, July 3, 2026 (Nobitex, EghtesadOnline) |
| Emami gold coin | ~177.5 million tomans | Up | Friday, July 3, 2026 (ILNA) |
| Emami coin premium (bubble) | 7,091,000 tomans | Up on the day | Friday, July 3, 2026 (ILNA) |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | ~100.8 | Down ~0.6 to 0.7% | Thursday, July 2, 2026 (Reuters, Bloomberg) |
Drivers
The main driver of gold's two day jump is the weaker than expected US June jobs report: the Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded just 57,000 new nonfarm payrolls, well below the roughly 110,000 to 115,000 the market expected, while the prior two months were revised down by a combined roughly 74,000 jobs; unemployment rose to 4.2 percent (source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2, 2026). The data reduced the market implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by year end, which had stood near 50 percent, and weakened the dollar index, making gold cheaper and more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.
In the background, gold's months long pullback from January's record largely reflected shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations and a firmer dollar earlier this year; per ING Think, regional military tensions in late February 2026 briefly pushed global oil prices higher, lifting inflation expectations and, for a time, pricing rate cuts out of the market entirely.
Outlook
Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve's new chair, said on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at the European Central Bank's forum in Sintra, Portugal: "I guess they'd be disappointed" if businesses or households expected the Fed to tolerate inflation above 2 percent, adding "we're going to deliver price stability," and that he had not yet decided on the Fed's next policy move (per CNBC and PBS News). Analysts say that relatively cautious tone helps explain why gold's reaction to the weak jobs data, while noticeable, has not been more dramatic. Analysts continue to describe gold as pulled between several, sometimes opposing forces: rate expectations and dollar behavior on one side, physical demand and central bank buying on the other. These are reported analyst views, not a forecast and not investment advice.
What to watch
- The Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting on July 28 to 29, 2026, alongside a fresh set of economic projections.
- The reopening of the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Mercantile Exchange on Saturday, July 4, 2026 (13 Tir), and how domestic gold and coin prices react to last week's global moves.
- Further US economic data (inflation, output) in the coming weeks and its effect on rate expectations.
The above is offered for monitoring and awareness only and does not constitute trading advice.
Disclaimer
This note is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Every figure carries its as of date and may have changed by the time you read it; verify with current, reputable sources before making any financial decision.
