Iran's Statistical Center (SCI) reported that housing rent posted a point-to-point inflation rate of 31.7% in Tir 1405 (roughly June 22 to July 22, 2026), the slowest-moving major category in the entire household consumption basket, according to Eghtesadonline. Against Iran's economy-wide point-to-point inflation of 87.9%, that number looks calm. But just a week earlier, a field review by the Majlis (parliament) Research Center, reported by Khabaronline, found real Tehran leases signed this Mordad moving season (roughly late July to late August 2026) jumped 70 to 100%. Both numbers describe the same market, and they tell two very different stories.
Background
This gap between the official index and real-world rents is not new. On July 28, 2026, Sahmino reported in a 57-point gap between rent inflation and headline inflation that in Khordad 1405 (roughly May 22 to June 21, 2026), SCI's point-to-point rent inflation stood at 31.2%, against 88.6% headline inflation, while finalized Tehran lease contracts that same month were up nearly 40%. The Tir report repeats the same pattern with fresh numbers: the official index barely moved (31.2% to 31.7%), while the real market, per the Majlis Research Center, jumped 70 to 100% in the Mordad moving season, a review Sahmino covered in detail on August 8, 2026 in Tehran rents jumped up to 100% this moving season.
Key numbers
- 31.7%: Point-to-point rent inflation in Tir 1405, the lowest of any major household consumption category, per Iran's Statistical Center (Eghtesadonline and Mehr News, July 26, 2026).
- 32.5%: Annual (12-month average) rent inflation in Tir 1405.
- 2.3%: Monthly rent inflation in Tir 1405 versus Khordad.
- 87.9%: Iran's economy-wide point-to-point inflation in Tir 1405, meaning the same basket of goods and services costs nearly double what it did a year earlier (Statistical Center of Iran, via Ecoiran and Eghtesadonline, July 24 and 26, 2026).
- 3.1%: Economy-wide monthly inflation in Tir 1405.
- 70 to 100%: The range of real lease increases in Tehran this Mordad moving season, based on Khabaronline's field reporting (citing Khorasan newspaper) and the Majlis Research Center's review (August 8, 2026).
- 56.2 points: The gap between headline and rent point-to-point inflation in Tir (87.9 minus 31.7); the same gap stood at 57.4 points in Khordad.
Drivers
Why do the official index and the real market diverge this much? Part of it, per Eghtesadonline, is that tenants' payment capacity has become the binding constraint: falling real household income means many renters can no longer absorb the sharp annual jumps landlords have historically pushed through, so owners cannot always pass on their full cost increases. But the bigger part of the story is how the index is measured. The Majlis Research Center review Sahmino covered on August 8 found that because Iran's rent-cap law carries no requirement that a landlord renew a tenant's lease, the ministry's 25% cap on renewal increases is effectively toothless for new contracts: a landlord can simply let a lease lapse and re-let the unit to a new tenant at the market rate. SCI's index largely tracks the renewal segment of the market, while the Mordad moving-season surge comes from fresh, uncapped contracts, the same contracts behind Khabaronline's 70 to 100% field figure.
Outlook
The Ministry of Roads and Urban Development has promised to add automatic comparison between a new lease and the prior year's contract inside its Khodnevis registration system, but that feature is not yet live. SCI's next report, covering Mordad 1405, will be the first real test of whether the moving-season surge shows up as a bigger monthly jump in the official index, or whether the index keeps tracking its calmer path, since most Mordad leases are signed within that same month and their effect will only appear in the Mordad data.
Bottom line
The official report says rent was the calmest major spending category in Tir 1405. But that calm reflects how the index is built more than what renters actually experienced. Anyone who signed a new Tehran lease this season faced an increase running close to three times the official figure. A calm index number does not mean a calm market; it means the index is only seeing part of it.
What to watch
- Iran's Statistical Center report for Mordad 1405, the first official data to reflect this year's moving-season surge.
- Activation of the lease-comparison feature in the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development's Khodnevis system.
- Parliament's response to the Research Center's proposed fix requiring lease renewal.
