Two facts are running side by side on the Tehran Stock Exchange right now, and they are easy to confuse: a factory returning to production, and a ticker reopening on the trading board. The gap between the two is the real story of the market's largest war-damaged companies. As of the close on Monday, 22 Tir 1405 (July 13, 2026), roughly 42 tickers that together make up about 35% of total market value, from Foolad (Mobarakeh Steel) and Fakhouz (Khuzestan Steel) to Bafajr, Mobin and Shavan, were still halted, with their suspension extended to 31 Tir 1405 (July 22, 2026), even though many of these same firms have already restarted their production lines.
Background: two different wars should not be conflated
The heavy damage to listed companies did not come in the "12-day war" of Khordad 1404 (June 2025), nor was it mostly confined to non-listed state facilities (such as the fire at a few tanks of the Shahran fuel depot on 24 Khordad 1404 / June 14, 2025). The main damage came in the spring 1405 war, which began around 9 Esfand 1404 (Feb 28, 2026) and struck the steel giants, the petrochemical utility complexes and the refineries. The equity market stayed closed for about 80 days (nearly 52 trading sessions) and reopened on a "controlled" basis on 29 Ordibehesht 1405 (May 19, 2026); about 42 tickers, near 35% of market value, were kept out of that reopening.
After the reopening, the TEDPIX main index ran a strong rally and reached an all-time high of nearly 5.3 million points by mid-Tir. But after Donald Trump's remarks that the ceasefire was "over" on 17 Tir (July 8, 2026) and the free-market dollar breaking past the 180,000-toman channel, the market entered a correction and fell back below 5 million points for several straight sessions. The psychological roots of that sell-off, and how they differ from companies' fundamental value, are examined in our earlier analysis of the systematic-risk sell-off.
Key numbers
The figures below capture today's picture of this file, each with its own date and source:
| Metric | Value | Date / source |
|---|
| TEDPIX main index | 4,966,761 points (down 1.79% on the day) | 22 Tir 1405 (July 13, 2026), Sahmino price feed |
| Tickers still halted | about 42 tickers, roughly 35% of market value | reopening 29 Ordibehesht; suspension extended to 31 Tir 1405 |
| Market closure in the spring war | about 80 days (52 sessions) | 6 Esfand 1404 to 29 Ordibehesht 1405 |
| Mobarakeh Steel production-line rebuild | about 45 days (versus an initial 4-month estimate) | Mobarakeh Steel Group statement, Tir 1405 |
| War-hit petrochemical units back online | about 89% | industry officials' statement, early Tir 1405 |
An important methodological note: reports differ on the exact index level in the 17 to 22 Tir window, but the body of evidence and Sahmino's price feed put TEDPIX near 4.97 million points on 22 Tir. The macro damage figures are also mostly official and preliminary estimates; the government put the combined direct and indirect war damage at around 270 billion dollars in an initial estimate, and the number of damaged industrial units at about 3,003.
Drivers and mechanism: why "production" came back before the "ticker"
The key is the targeting of utility bottlenecks, not necessarily the petrochemical lines themselves. Complexes such as Mobin Energy and Damavand Energy in Assaluyeh, and Fajr Energy Persian Gulf (ticker Bafajr) in Mahshahr, supply the electricity, steam, industrial water and oxygen for dozens of complexes. According to Hossein Alimorad, a former planning and development manager at the National Petrochemical Industries Company, Mobin's and Damavand's power-generation capacity is about 986 and 648 megawatts respectively. Damaging these units effectively took the whole regional production chain offline. That is why the "89% of damaged units back online" that industry officials have announced does not necessarily mean a full return of capacity or profitability.
In steel, two index-heavyweights were hit. Mobarakeh Steel of Isfahan (ticker Foolad, the second-largest company on the bourse) says that, leaning on domestic engineering and three-shift work, it completed in about 45 days a job initially estimated at roughly four months, brought its No. 8 furnace, damaged in the strike, back on line, and resumed hot-rolled coil supply on the commodity exchange. Khuzestan Steel (Fakhouz) was also directly damaged. Lavan Oil Refining (Shavan, on the over-the-counter Farabourse) was halted from 19 Farvardin 1405 (April 8, 2026) over war damage per its Codal disclosure, with some of its units gradually returning.
So why is the ticker not reopening? The Securities and Exchange Organization has conditioned the reopening of these tickers on full transparency: disclosure of the scale of damage, reconstruction cost, lost income (business interruption), and a financing plan. A crucial point for shareholders is that war damage is not covered by conventional hull or fire insurance; compensation is pursued through the national war-damage compensation fund, the Central Insurance and Iran Insurance, and above all through capital increases and financing from the capital market. Central Insurance has cited an estimate of about 60,000 billion tomans in declared damage. A capital increase means potential share dilution, which is exactly what complicates valuing the reopening.
Outlook
This section is analytical judgment, not settled fact. Domestic reconstruction capacity has been high so far, but the two main risks ahead are largely non-technical. First, the fragility of the ceasefire: Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was "over" on 17 Tir showed that the single most important variable for these tickers is not the speed of rebuilding but the durability of the truce and the sanctions trajectory. Second, the winter energy imbalance; with the country's gas capacity reduced during the war, power and gas rationing for energy-intensive industries (steel, cement, petrochemicals) could cap the very profitability of these firms in the cold season. Technically, too, damaged tickers usually reopen through a discrete auction without a price band, which can come with a sharp price jump.
What to watch
This list is for monitoring only and is not buy or sell advice:
- Each company's "Group A" disclosure on Codal: the official report on the scale of damage, reconstruction cost and the timeline back to full capacity is the first transparent signal.
- The live suspension/reopening status of the tickers (Foolad, Fakhouz, Bafajr, Mobin, Shavan, Shakharak, Shiraz): suspensions have been extended to 31 Tir 1405.
- Separating production from profit: a factory returning to output is not the same as profit returning; keep lost income and possible capital increases in mind. Review how tickers and price bands work on the bourse prices board.
- The durability of the ceasefire and the severity of the winter energy imbalance as the two dominant external drivers.
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