Inflation at 83.9 Percent Has Outrun Money Growth of 53.3 Percent; the 30.6 Point Gap the Printing Press Did Not Create (Friday, 31 July 2026)

No, Iran's eighty four percent inflation was not built by money printing alone, and the numbers say so. Put two numbers together: money grew fifty three point three percent, prices eighty three point nine. That means inflation ran about thirty point six percentage points ahead of money growth. First clear one misunderstanding: broad money is mostly numbers in bank accounts, not banknotes. At the end of the Iranian year fourteen oh four, broad money stood near fifteen thousand five hundred hemat. Banks create most new money; a loan simply writes a number that did not exist before. Four sources drive that growth, from the budget deficit to compounding deposit interest. When trust in the currency fades, deposits leave accounts and the velocity of money rises. Meanwhile output has stayed roughly flat, so all the pressure lands on prices. The third channel is the exchange rate: the dollar sat near one hundred ninety two thousand tomans on July thirtieth. On the twenty third of July the Central Bank lifted the reserve requirement by one and a half points. New money moves in sequence: currency and gold first, then equities, and housing last. So measure your assets against liquidity growth, not against your own number from last year. The verdict is clear: expectations and the exchange rate built that extra thirty point six points. So the printing press is not the only culprit. Expectations, or the exchange rate? Tell us which.