Iran Makes the World's Cheapest Rebar: It Exports an Energy Subsidy, While Its Steel Ticker Has Been Frozen for 146 Days (Friday, 24 July 2026)
Ex-works rebar in Iran runs about $365 a ton: cheaper than China, under half of Germany, a third of the US, not from productivity but from cheap gas and power melted into steel and partly shipped abroad. Iran supplies about a quarter of the world's direct-reduced iron and near 11% of the semi-finished steel trade, big enough that a Hormuz disruption lifted German rebar prices. Meanwhile the Foolad and Fakhouz tickers have been frozen since 28 February 2026. Not buy or sell advice.
Transcript
Iran makes the world's cheapest rebar, cheaper than China. But who really wins? Today, the twenty fourth of July. Ex works rebar in Iran costs about three hundred sixty five dollars a ton. Three hundred sixty five dollars a ton; the cheapest among the world's major markets. At the same time China sells near four hundred sixty, Germany seven hundred forty, America almost a thousand. Why so cheap? About eighty percent of Iran's steel is melted in electric furnaces with cheap energy. In twenty twenty five Iran made about thirty seven million tons of direct reduced iron, near a quarter of the world. So the energy subsidy melts in the furnace, and its discount goes to a foreign buyer. Crude steel in January was two point six million tons; semi finished exports, seven to eight million tons a year. So big that when Hormuz was disrupted on the twenty eighth of February, German rebar rose six percent. But at home, mills run under power cuts; power is guaranteed only for August and September. And Mobarakeh Steel and Khouzestan Steel have been halted since late February; their last price frozen. For one hundred forty six days, shareholders of these two tickers cannot trade their shares. The winner here is a foreign buyer, and the loser, a shareholder waiting one hundred forty six days. So the winner is a foreign buyer, not productivity. Is this export right? Full analysis on Sahmino.
