Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
Pezeshkian Sets Iran's Third-Tier Gasoline Price at 10,000 Tomans: Mapping the Chain Reaction on Inflation, the Dollar, Gold and the Bourse (Friday, August 28, 2026)
President Masoud Pezeshkian said on the evening of Friday, August 28, 2026 (6 Shahrivar 1405) that Iran's third-tier gasoline price, after coordination among relevant institutions, will rise from 5,000 to 10,000 tomans per liter and go no higher. It is the first time the country's top executive official has confirmed a final figure; an implementation date has not been announced. Sahmino examines the chain of effects on inflation, the dollar, gold, the stock market and Iranian industries.
Who Sets OPEC+ Oil Quotas? The Monitoring Committee and Russia's Role
How does OPEC+ actually set each member's oil quota? This lesson covers the two decision layers, the seven voluntary producers and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), Russia's role beside Saudi Arabia, and how that differs from the separate Eurasian Economic Union.
Aref: Top Income Decile Gets 23 Times More Gasoline Subsidy Than Bottom Decile; Government Denies 80,000 Toman Price Rumor (Sunday, August 23, 2026)
Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran's First Vice President, said Sunday, August 23, 2026 that the country's top income decile receives 23 times more benefit from the gasoline subsidy than the bottom decile, and that subsidized gasoline costs the country several billion dollars a year. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani denied a rumored 80,000 toman gasoline price circulating on social media, saying no new figure or pricing model has been approved yet.
How China's Yuan and Iran's Oil Are Tied Together
Why China's small independent refiners are the main buyers of Iran's oil, how that trade settles in yuan instead of dollars, and how China's own growth data ripples through to Tehran's currency and coin markets.
Persian Gulf-to-Asia Supertanker Rates Hit $510,000 a Day, Highest Since Late June, Right as the Iran-US 60-Day Ceasefire Lapses (Tuesday, August 18, 2026)
Daily charter rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on the Persian Gulf-to-Asia route jumped to as high as $510,000 a day this week, the highest since late June. Per Bloomberg, one VLCC was chartered this week for $31 million to haul crude from the Gulf to East Asia, while only about 25 of the world's 486 VLCCs are willing to load in the Gulf. The surge coincides with the unextended lapse of the Iran-US 60-day ceasefire on Monday, August 17.
UAE Oil Output Hit a Record 4.1 Million Barrels a Day in June; ADNOC Has Sold Over 90 Million Barrels by Routing Around Hormuz (Wednesday, August 12, 2026)
Citing International Energy Agency estimates, Oilprice.com reports UAE crude output jumped from 3.3 million barrels a day in May to a record 4.1 million bpd in June. Since June, ADNOC has sold more than 90 million barrels via eight spot tenders that route around the Strait of Hormuz, even as Bank of America says only 5 to 10 ships a day now transit the Strait, versus about 140 before the war.
Brent, WTI, and the OPEC Basket: What They Are and Why Their Prices Differ
Learn what Brent, WTI, and the OPEC Reference Basket are, why their prices differ, and how oil's swings travel straight into Iran's state budget and currency market, with a worked example and dated real figures.
Brent Crude Jumps Nearly 5% in a Day to Top $87 as Iran Ties Hormuz Reopening to Six Conditions and Houthis Claim Drone Strike on Saudi Jazan Refinery (Monday, August 10, 2026)
By Monday evening, August 10, 2026 (19 Mordad 1405), Brent crude had jumped nearly 5% to top $87 a barrel. Sahmino's own feed put it at $87.25 at 20:37 Tehran time, in line with TGJU ($87.48) and Oilprice.com ($87.37). The trigger: Iran's Supreme National Security Council tied any Hormuz reopening to six conditions, while Yemen's Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery.
US Economy Shed 23,000 Jobs in July; Gold Jumps 2.7% to $4,355, Silver Up 4.25% (Friday, August 7, 2026)
The US jobs report for July showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs, against forecasts of roughly 80,000 to 83,000 new jobs; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but only as labor force participation dropped to its lowest since 2021. In reaction, spot gold jumped about 2.7% to $4,355.04 on Friday, August 7, 2026, and silver rose 4.25% to the $64.20 area.
What Is the Iran Mercantile Exchange: From Physical Auctions to Deposit Certificates and Standard Parallel Forward Sales
The Iran Mercantile Exchange runs three separate markets under one name. This lesson explains how steel and cement get priced through auctions on the physical market, what a commodity deposit certificate for coin, silver, and saffron actually represents, and how a standard parallel forward sale differs from a plain forward sale and from a futures contract.
Futures and Options: How Leverage, Margin and the Margin Call Actually Work
A futures contract creates an obligation; an option creates a right. This lesson shows how that one-word difference reshapes risk: what initial margin and maintenance margin are, how daily settlement moves profit and loss every night, where leverage comes from, and the exact moment a margin call is issued. Mechanism only, with no trading advice.
Six Saudi Tankers Take the 56 Day Route Around Africa; Cost Per Voyage Rises by 2 to 2.5 Million Dollars (Monday, 3 August 2026)
Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported on Monday, 3 August 2026 that a Saudi tanker sailing via the Cape of Good Hope will take 56 days, against 24 days through Bab el-Mandeb; cost per voyage is up by 2 to 2.5 million dollars and at least six tankers have rerouted. The same day Brent fell 5.34 percent to 83.47 dollars. The paper market priced de-escalation while the physical map of oil transport moved the other way.
$160 Million a Day: ExxonMobil and Chevron Booked a Combined $26.6 Billion Quarter; Anatomy of a Geopolitical Risk Premium (Saturday, August 1, 2026)
On Friday, July 31, 2026 (9 Mordad 1405), ExxonMobil and Chevron reported second-quarter 2026 results: $14.5 billion and $12.1 billion, a combined $26.6 billion. Divide Exxon's profit by the quarter's 91 days and you get close to $160 million a day. The bigger point is not the size of the numbers: Exxon produced less oil than in the previous quarter and still more than tripled its earnings. This piece unpacks the geopolitical risk premium and where Iran sits in it.
2,582 MW of New Thermal Power Capacity Came Online for 1.4 Billion Euros; Parliament Estimates Illegal Crypto Miners Draw About 2,000 MW (Saturday, 1 August 2026)
Iran's Thermal Power Plant Holding Company said on Saturday, 10 Mordad 1405 (1 August 2026) that 2,582 MW of new capacity has come online since last August on investment of more than 1.4 billion euros, with about 2,000 MW of it going directly to industry. The same day, the head of parliament's power committee said estimates put illegal crypto mining at roughly 2,000 MW of national capacity. Two numbers of the same size, on one day.
Iran's 1404 transit reached 20.516 million tonnes: the asset that never runs out but can be blocked (Friday, 31 July 2026)
In the Iranian year 1404 (ending March 2026), about 20.516 million tonnes of goods transited Iranian territory. Iran sold none of it and was paid only for the passage. Transit is the one part of foreign trade where Iran sells its geography rather than its resources. Yet the 10 month data for the same year show the figure was 4.63 percent smaller than a year earlier, and by Mordad 1405 (July 2026), with the Strait of Hormuz locked and fewer than 10 ships a day, that asset is under fresh pressure.
150 million tons crossed Iran's borders, but the value of each exported ton fell to $343 (Thursday, 30 July 2026)
Iran's customs administration reports that in the year 1404 (March 2025 to March 2026) the country exported 150,508,000 tons of non-oil goods worth $51,657 million, with total non-oil trade passing $109,673 million: the heaviest tonnage on record. Yet in 1403 a similar weight (about 152 million tons) earned about $57.8 billion. The value of each exported ton has fallen from roughly $380 to roughly $343.
Iran grows 85 to 90 percent of the world's saffron but sells it for $862 a kilo: anatomy of the red gold paradox (Sunday, 26 July 2026)
The FAO stated officially on 26 November 2025 that Iran produces 85 to 90 percent of the world's saffron. Yet Iranian customs data for 1403 (2024/25) puts the average export price at roughly $862 per kilo, less than half the world average of about $2,000. Sahmino examines Iran's three different shares of this market, the re-export role of the UAE and Spain, and the counterintuitive finding that "red gold" has lagged both gold and the dollar over the long run.
Did Gasoline Just Become Three-Tier? What Actually Changed on 1 Mordad 1405 (23 July 2026) and What Is Just a Rumor
Before dawn today the monthly 60-liter gasoline quota was loaded onto fuel cards, and a Kerman province pilot began moving the 5,000-toman emergency ration onto personal cards. But no new price was announced and the government denied the "10,000-toman gasoline" rumor. This report separates what actually changed, how big the gasoline imbalance is, and how it reaches inflation and markets. Not buy or sell advice.
China's Purchases of Iranian Crude More Than Halved in June Despite Sanctions Waiver; Over 20 Million Barrels Now Stranded at Sea (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)
China's imports of Iranian crude fell to about 654,000 barrels a day in June 2026, more than halving from a month earlier, despite Washington's temporary sanctions waiver effective June 22. Over 20 million barrels of Iranian oil are now idling at sea, up 18% week on week (July 2 and July 6, 2026, per Bloomberg and CNBC).
Russia's Urals Crude Sinks to $41.66 a Barrel, Below Pre-War Levels, Deepening the Kremlin's Budget Squeeze (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Russia's Urals crude averaged $41.66 a barrel in early July, its lowest level since before the Iran-Israel-US war. Its discount to Brent has widened to $27.35 a barrel, compounding a budget already squeezed by a 45% drop in Q1 2026 oil and gas revenue (Monday, July 6, 2026).
OPEC+ Raises August Output by 188,000 Barrels a Day as Persian Gulf Exports Through the Strait of Hormuz Top 10 Million Barrels (Sunday, July 5, 2026)
Seven core OPEC+ producers agreed at a virtual meeting on Sunday, July 5, 2026, to raise August output by 188,000 barrels a day. As the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens following the Iran-US ceasefire, total daily oil flows through the strait have topped 10 million barrels, and Brent crude trades near $72 a barrel.
Saudi Oil Exports Through Strait of Hormuz Hit 6.3 Million Barrels a Day; OPEC+ Nears August Output Hike (Saturday, July 4, 2026)
Saudi Arabia's crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed to 6.3 million barrels a day, per Bloomberg and CNBC (July 1 to 2, 2026), nearing pre-war levels after the Iran-US ceasefire. OPEC+ is preparing another roughly 188,000 bpd increase for August, as Iran holds its own 60-day US oil license.
